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Baccarat How to efficiently earn 2 chips for profit per shoe. Based on math possibility.

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by HunterBBQ, Jul 5, 2020.

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  1. HunterBBQ

    HunterBBQ New Member

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    Here we direct to the point without all the intro & welcome.

    Here a example.
    111 = PBP
    121 = PBBP

    And we will test it with 2step marty.

    Possibility of 2step marty and we will bet on chop only. (Vs Dragon bet or reserve when another side have better Possibility)
    1. 111 = PBP = 1bet on chop = +2 units
    2. 211 = +2 units
    3. 3 = -3 stop when hit loss
    4. 121 = +2
    5. 221 = +2
    6. 13 = -2
    7. 23 = -2
    Total after Possibility of 7.
    Wins/lose , 4/7 = little more Possibility to wins and minus profit/loss we have to add up all the 7 Possibility = +1 if we have all 7 Possibility show up 1 time, if take this to a math or simulation it will come out little profit with more than 1k run.

    So the question here is taking 2step marty give you better recovery loss even you lose, and 3step above will bring more pressure on the capital size.

    So here another example for this 2step marty with the bet amount will be 1unit and 4units.

    1. 111 = PBP = 1bet on chop = +2 units
    2. 211 = +4 units
    3. 3 = -5 stop when hit loss
    4. 121 = +4
    5. 221 = +6
    6. 13 = -4
    7. 23 = -2
    Total 4/7 +- +16 & - 11 = +5units for 7 Possibility.

    And now we use the comparison to 1,2 vs 1,4 we get more value from 1,4 bet.

    Anyone free to do a math for this comparison and i will post a simulation results in python code.
     
    Joey Torres and Ivan miranda like this.
  2. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Member

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    Hello! I'm too old to understand the above. Please explain a bit more on how it works.

    Thanks,
     
  3. Bombus

    Bombus Active Member

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    What's a profie?
     
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    With statistics one never sees a losing session . Strange


    Casinos are doomed .
     
  5. HunterBBQ

    HunterBBQ New Member

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    here is the python code for simulation this test.
    Code:
    #** new test of possiblities
    test_holder = {
    'p111':0 , #1
    'p211':0 , #2
    'p121':0 , #3
    'p221':0 , #4
    'p13':0 , #5
    'p3':0 , #6
    'p23':0 , #7
    }
    lucky_list = ['p111','p211','p3','p121','p13','p23','p221']
    winorlose = 0 #1,2
    winorlose_2 = 0 #1,4
    winorlose_3 = 0 #1,5
    winorlose_4 = 0 #0,5

    Lwinorlose = 0 #1,2
    Lwinorlose_2 = 0 #1,4
    Lwinorlose_3 = 0 #1,5
    Lwinorlose_4 = 0 #0,5


    for x in range(10000) :
    lucky = random.choice(lucky_list)
    if lucky == 'p111': #1
    winorlose += 2
    winorlose_2 += 2
    winorlose_3 += 2
    winorlose_4 += 0
    elif lucky == 'p211': #2
    winorlose += 2
    winorlose_2 += 4
    winorlose_3 += 5
    winorlose_4 += 5
    elif lucky == 'p121': #3
    winorlose += 2
    winorlose_2 += 4
    winorlose_3 += 5
    winorlose_4 += 5
    elif lucky == 'p221': #4
    winorlose += 2
    winorlose_2 += 6
    winorlose_3 += 8
    winorlose_4 += 10
    elif lucky == 'p13': #5
    winorlose -= 2
    winorlose_2 -= 4
    winorlose_3 -= 5
    winorlose_4 -= 5
    if winorlose < Lwinorlose:
    Lwinorlose = winorlose
    if winorlose_2 < Lwinorlose_2:
    Lwinorlose_2 = winorlose_2
    if winorlose_3 < Lwinorlose_3:
    Lwinorlose_3 = winorlose_3
    if winorlose_4 < Lwinorlose_4:
    Lwinorlose_4 = winorlose_4
    elif lucky == 'p3': #6
    winorlose -= 3
    winorlose_2 -= 5
    winorlose_3 -= 6
    winorlose_4 -= 5
    if winorlose < Lwinorlose:
    Lwinorlose = winorlose
    if winorlose_2 < Lwinorlose_2:
    Lwinorlose_2 = winorlose_2
    if winorlose_3 < Lwinorlose_3:
    Lwinorlose_3 = winorlose_3
    if winorlose_4 < Lwinorlose_4:
    Lwinorlose_4 = winorlose_4
    elif lucky == 'p23': #7
    winorlose -= 2
    winorlose_2 -= 2
    winorlose_3 -= 2
    winorlose_4 -= 0
    if winorlose < Lwinorlose:
    Lwinorlose = winorlose
    if winorlose_2 < Lwinorlose_2:
    Lwinorlose_2 = winorlose_2
    if winorlose_3 < Lwinorlose_3:
    Lwinorlose_3 = winorlose_3
    if winorlose_4 < Lwinorlose_4:
    Lwinorlose_4 = winorlose_4

    test_holder[lucky] += 1

    print('Total 1-2 Win or Lose: ((' + str(winorlose) + ")) vs capital :" + str(Lwinorlose))
    print('Total 1-4 Win or Lose: ((' + str(winorlose_2) + ")) vs capital :" + str(Lwinorlose_2))
    print('Total 1-5 Win or Lose: ((' + str(winorlose_3) + ")) vs capital :" + str(Lwinorlose_3))
    print('Total 0-5 Win or Lose: ((' + str(winorlose_4) + ")) vs capital :" + str(Lwinorlose_4))
    print(test_holder)

    Here is simulation test results: with 10,000 runs test, mean we throw the 7-faces die 10k times
    Total 1-2 Win or Lose: ((1910)) vs capital :-2
    Total 1-4 Win or Lose: ((7910)) vs capital :-6
    Total 1-5 Win or Lose: ((10910)) vs capital :-9
    Total 0-5 Win or Lose: ((15000)) vs capital :-15
    'p111': 1490,
    'p211': 1441,
    'p121': 1445,
    'p221': 1440,
    'p13': 1412,
    'p3': 1354,
    'p23': 1418,

    Here is simulation test results: with 100 runs test, mean we throw the 7-faces die 100 times
    Total 1-2 Win or Lose: ((-13)) vs capital :-15
    Total 1-4 Win or Lose: ((15)) vs capital :-10
    Total 1-5 Win or Lose: ((29)) vs capital :-12
    Total 0-5 Win or Lose: ((70)) vs capital :-10
    {'p111': 13, 'p211': 11, 'p121': 15, 'p221': 12, 'p13': 19, 'p3': 17, 'p23': 13}




    Here I will explain and make more examples with this test.


    upload_2020-7-6_15-16-22.png

    So for the examples is
    (111) mean Banker,Player,Banker.
    (211) mean Banker,Banker,Player,Banker

    When to bet and how to bet example with W = way, W1 = Way1, W2 = Way2
    Way1 = Bet 1unit, if lose bet 2 units = total 3units capital
    Way2 = Bet 1unit, if lose bet 4 units = total 5units capital
    Ex1: 111
    (1) mean Banker, and when we see Banker we will bet on chop Player with 1unit,
    W1 = bet 1, W2 = bet 1
    (11) mean Banker,Player and mean we win 1 unit from our previous bet and we bet Player 1 unit.
    W1 = win 1 and bet 1, W2 = win 1 and bet 1
    (111) mean Banker,Player,Banker. also mean we completed and stop here.
    W1 = win 2 & stop, W2 = win 2 & stop
    Ex2: 211
    (1) mean Banker, and when we see Banker we will bet on chop Player with 1unit,
    W1 = bet 1, W2 = bet 1
    (2) mean Banker,Banker and mean we loss 1 unit and we continue to bet on player marty
    W1 = lose 1 & bet 2, W2 = lose1 & bet 4
    (21) mean Banker,Banker,Player mean we win on the chop and continue to bet on chop banker
    W1 = lose 1, win 2 = profit +1 & bet 1, W2 = lose1 ,win 4 = profit +3 & bet 1
    (211) mean Banker,Banker,Player,Banker
    W1 = lose 1, win 2, win 1 = profit +2 & stop , W2 = lose1 ,win 4 ,win 1 = profit +4 & stop
    Ex3: 300
    (3) mean Banker,Banker,Banker
    (1) mean Banker, and when we see Banker we will bet on chop Player with 1unit,
    W1 = bet 1, W2 = bet 1
    (2) mean Banker,Banker and mean we loss 1 unit and we continue to bet on player marty
    W1 = lose 1 & bet 2, W2 = lose1 & bet 4
    (3) mean Banker,Banker and mean we loss 1 unit and we continue to bet on player marty
    W1 = lose 1 & lose 2 total= loss 3, W2 = lose1 & lose 4 total = loss 5

    Here the point for this test, we will always play on the new shoe, so there you wont get confused when to bet and when to stop, because all new shoe you will play 7 possibility.


    here the 7 outcome and mean we will have a 7 face die to roll and 4 face we will win another 3 face will be loss. (0) mean stop
    1. 111
    2. 211
    3. 300
    4. 121
    5. 221
    6. 130
    7. 230


    Feel Free to give more suggestions and advice for this test, this is pure sharing and check out if someone can make the math count on pure win rate/loss.
     
  6. HunterBBQ

    HunterBBQ New Member

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    Not sure if I allow to change the title for correction, because that should be profit.
    However, it's not super important with the title but the content inside, if you agree.

    cheer
     
  7. HunterBBQ

    HunterBBQ New Member

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    seem not one interest to discover the true win rate from my statement and so i will try to have sometime to finish it. any however i busy atm and will try my best to update the win rate base on true count and math.
     

  8. HunterBBQ

    HunterBBQ New Member

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    Here we start again.
    For logical & mathematical & possibilities understanding the advantages we are talking here.

    I will make a easy example and explanation so everyone get the same picture.

    1st i will say and willing to share this info because there outside have way too many systems, way and so on to win a game, but what is the foundation of all we should understand it to avoid any fairly tail systems fall from the sky.

    This also help anyone to understand the foundation too.
    So this will be step by step and let get started already.

    The achievements will be 2units profit per shoe = real life 500 per unit. Target to have 10shoes per visit.

    To get what we want, we must know and understand why and how we will go to win instead go to lose when this is a -ev game.

    We will put a 1. Example here.
    We have playerA and playerB and casino the dealer.
    A & B have let say 10k capital and dealer = unlimited fyi unlimited not mean sure win.

    We will set a rule here to have easy understand why dealer always win with such low or small edge = advantages that the casino had.

    PlayerA will choose 1 side to bet.
    PlayerB will always against playerA bet.
    Dealer sit here and earn his edge.
    So we will understand why and how casino win no matter how a player played or bet doesn't matter at all and win in the end.

    Round 1, A bet 1k and win = 11k and B become 9k
    Round 2, A bet on banker win and earn 950 =11950 and B become 8k
    Round 3. A lost his 1k 10950 and B 9k
    Round 4. A lost again on player 1k = 9950 and B win 950 = 9950.
    Above we have 4round and 2win 2lose = 50/50 if we repeat this 10times= both players will lose another 500 and this is how casino earn your money.

    To be continue next including martingale example.
     
    Joey Torres likes this.
  9. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Member

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    Hi Hunter,

    This is interesting. Please continue.

    Thanks,
     
  10. HunterBBQ

    HunterBBQ New Member

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    here we will continue to explore more basic understanding of player A vs player B vs Casino(dealer) with martingale.

    1st we need to know what is a martingale, from the history i research its name of the partner (martin) & (Gale) 1st used this skill and somehow it becomes the name of this system* or skill* or a way to play so-call double up after each loss.

    so martingale = double up your bet after each loss, (Marty = short form).

    The capital of all is 100units.
    PlayerA will use marty 5times (double each loss 5times) 1,2,4,8,16 = 31units
    PlayerB will use marty 5times but always against playerA
    PlayerC will use flat bet follow A
    PlayerD will use flat bet follow B
    Casino-Dealer will win by his small edge by sitting there and let you feed him your pocket money.

    So let get started.
    The story will be (A,B,C) go into casino and seated the same table and there you have the big boss, casino = dealer.
    (A) known his win rate will be 96.875% (here how i get the math correct 1,2,4,8,16 and each time its 50/50 and so 50+25+12.5+6.25+3.125)
    so (A) dont afraid to bet every hand(note: bet every or skip hand or bet each table 1 or 2 hand will not change the win/lose rate and the edge of your big boss, so its not the main point we will discuss why and how, however if anyone interest to know why, i may make 1post for this too)

    Round 1, (A) bet 1 win (101), (B) lose 1 (99), (C) win 1(101), (D) lose 1 (99).
    Round 2, (A) bet 1 win (102), (B) lose 2 (97), (C) win 1(102), (D) lose 1 (98).
    Round 3, (A) bet 1 win (103), (B) lose 4 (93), (C) win 1(103), (D) lose 1 (97).
    Round 4, (A) bet 1 win (104), (B) lose 8 (85), (C) win 1(104), (D) lose 1 (96).
    Round 5, (A) bet 1 lose (103), (B) super F**k scared and afraid to continue the last bet but after a long battle in (B) brain it almost lost control but somehow he/she use his/her hand to put the very last step of marty win 16 (101), (C) lose 1(103), (D) win 1 (97).
    Round 6, (A) lose 2 win (101), (B) win 1 (102), (C) lose 1(102), (D) win 1 (98).
    Round 7, (A) lose 4 win (97), (B) win 1 (103), (C) lose 1(101), (D) win 1 (99).
    Round 8, (A) win 8-5%=7.6 because of banker win (104.6), (B) lose 1 (102), (C) win 1-5%=0.95(101.95), (D) lose 1 (98).
    Round 9, (A) win 1 (105.6), (B) lose 1 (102), (C) win 1(102), (D) lose 1 (98).
    Round 10, (A) win 1 (106.6), (B) lose 2 (100), (C) win 1(103), (D) lose 1 (97).
    Round 11, (A) win 1 (107.6), (B) lose 4 (96), (C) win 1(104), (D) lose 1 (96).
    Round 12, (A) win 1 (108.6), (B) lose 8 (88), (C) win 1(105), (D) lose 1 (95).
    Round 13, (A) talk"to his own brain and say my target is 10units, and now its 9.6units won, let stop it ..... and happy for today" win 1 (109.6), (B) say"this is easy because i have 96-97% rate win = sure-win and i have that all come back to me from last time the last bet" lose 16 (72), (C) win 1(106), (D) lose 1 (94).
    Round 14, (A) "cant resist and think that just 1 last bet is easy win because i have 96-97% win rate" lose 1 (108.6), (B) win 1 (73), (C) lose 1 (104), (D) win 1 (96).
    Round 15, (A) lose 2 (106.6), (B) win 1 (74), (C) lose 1(103), (D) win 1 (97).
    Round 16, (A) lose 4 (102.6), (B) win 1 (75), (C) lose 1(102), (D) win 1 (98).
    Round 17, (A) lose 8 (94.6), (B) win 1 (76), (C) stop and say"my target is 2units per shoe and i have 102" (102), (D) win 1 (99).
    Round 18, (A) WTF i just want to hit my 10units target and now all i get is this F** losing day, why lose 16 (78.6), (B) win 1 (77), (C) stop (102), (D) win 1 (101).
    Round 19, (A) stop (78.6), (B) stop (77), (C) (102), (D) stop (101).

    here we have a simple example, 1 marty we always have to take all the lost in account, 2nd marty will get losing more and more on the banker 5%.

    so here you go, and will continue on next basic understanding topic and also share some of my research.

    cheer.


    "comparing A,B,C,D we will see losing 5% from previous post is better than losing marty"
     
    Joey Torres likes this.
  11. HunterBBQ

    HunterBBQ New Member

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    There is a formula and im testing it live 2days, + checked hourly website live dealer scoreboard to find out there is possible to have 3-5units profit.
    about the testing live mean testing it in real casino. the results may not impressive but its working and slow.
     

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