Baccarat How to properly learn the facts about Baccarat

Why are we investing so much time and money at -EV game of Baccarat? In this discussion, I am not talking about winning or losing. I am talking about the facts about Baccarat that most people learn but don't pay any attention to.

First thing is the Law of Baccarat. House enjoys an edge in 2 forms. P bet will have less probability to win and the payout is even money. B bet has a higher probability to win but is offset by a smaller payout ratio. The Math will come down to House Edge of 1+ % for P or B.

Next, we try to understand Probability and Odds. Probability is chances measured in percentages to win with a bet selection. So often people wrongly use the word odds in place of probability but what they are actually asking is probability. What are my odds of winning? So common but actually is mix used with the word probability. More accurate: What are my chances? What is my probability?

Odds is described as probability over payout ratio. So the Law of Baccarat or Odds with Baccarat is 50/50 and the payout is Even money with House Edge of 1+ percent. I am skipping explaining how that 1+ % came about because I already done that in the 2nd paragraph.

When I use the word Law, I mean that this is Fact and cannot be changed or altered no matter what you do in designing your play. Therefore THERE IS NO RIGHT OR WRONG OR GOOD OR BAD with all methods of B or P and MM. It's how each method and MM plays out with the outcome of shoe that it is played on.One can only describe the characteristics of each approaches and MM but THEY ALL ARE FACING THE SAME ODDS or Law of the game. So let respect each other opinions as opinions and not portray them as saying I am right and you are wrong.

There are more to this.............

 

How to come about B or P is call the bet selection method. What amount to bet is call the MM or money management.

Ask yourself what is the reason to go to the casinos. Many people have disposable income and they would like to go to the casinos to be pampered with freebies and the VIP treatment. Winning is a bonus and if they lose, it is not the end of the world for them. They would do this many times in a year and some of them do win big at times. They are there to gamble and the mindset is different.

If you are one of those who is looking to make a bit of side income besides your job, then you have to study the facts and realise that your whole gambling adventure is one big session. You can't write off your losses. You have to make realistic wins. Not many people thought of all these things. All they wanted to do is HOW to WIN consistently and accept that manageable and occasionally loss. They lose faith once they losses and start blaming all sorts of things from the way they play down to the Human Factor stuffs like control, discipline and emotions. They quickly change methods etc. not realizing the ODDS NEVER CHANGED.

I read a post advising people to follow the HOT bettor and win a few units or go against the one that losses a lot. Now all this is generally speaking. If you take note, many people are doing this in a casino. The problem is as soon as people lose a bet following, they won't follow no more. There is no faith with any approaches once it losses.

Still more on this........................

 

The reason mathematicians haven’t been able to figure out baccarat is because they keep trying to “quantify” it with the probability of outcome. It has nothing to do with probability because you’re not looking at a million shoes. The shoe in front of you is unique. Look at the characteristics of player and banker separately and you will begin to see a bias. You need to determine a bias before you make a bet. Then keep betting the bias until it disappears. Then wait for a new bias to appear and bet on THAT. You can bet multiple biases at once. Look at the statistics of the shoe that’s in front of you. Forget the long term stats of the game. They only matter when looking at millions of shoes.

 

Although the Odds never changed but the bettor can change the probability to their favor but have to gave up the payout ratio. They can do what we called a progression of bets. Let's look at Martingale. Martingale is used as a tool and not as a system. Martingale is powerful in that it gives you a high probability to win a FRACTIONAL series Bankroll unit. Before anyone criticizes Martingale, please note that the ODDS never changed. You can say win 1 unit and lose a lot when it busts and that is so short sighted thinking. What about those accumulated Fractional wins? You will find out that Martingale is a grind in the long term. I am not touting Martingale. I am just explaining how wrong it is to think Martingale is any better or worse off than Flat Betting when both MM is facing the same ODDS

However there is one significant difference and a powerful one. Martingale allows the user to quit with Fractional wins ( which happens so frequently and easily) whereas Flat betting has no altered probability and each decision is final and can be tabulated as a true win or loss.
Martingale is more business like because the user either reach his stop/win fractional units OR accept that bust. No two ways about it. Very easy to approach. Winning is so frequent that it feels like a habit. A big confidence builder. Martingale is also so inline with the basic Human Behavior in gambling which is chase your losses. Flat Betting requires a lot of things that concerned the Human Factor which is the blame game. Superstition. etc. An interesting question is HOW MANY FLAT BETTORS ACTUALLY FLAT BET THROUGHOUT ITS ENTIRETY?
Again, I am not saying Martingale is bettor than Flat Betting in THEORY but in PRACTICAL, it is definitely better provided the Martingale player don't DEVIATE.

 

And that is why we play the game. There is this thing where all Mathematicians agree. Inductive and Deductive reasoning. The Math part of the game is Deductive but the playing part is Inductive. What you are saying is Baccarat is inductive. Your reasoning is purely fallacies but fallacies helps you make decisions and Baccarat is all decisions. You are right IF things plays out and wrong if they don't but I like your thinking. You are looking for imbalances but the Law of Averages works in a very peculiar way. 1 B followed by 1 P and you can say LOA has played out. Sometimes it takes a lot of hands for that to happen and you are what I call a one dimensional player. As long as you control your money well, this is a good way to play. However I feel you can incorporate a defense mechanism into your bet selection because right now, you are letting the House beat you left and right if thing goes wrong. We all know defense win games.

 

This is where I meant by most people don't understand Odds and Probability. When you said Probability of outcome, what do you mean? Probability of outcome of every hand is fixed with more on B and a bit less on P. It is almost 50/50. Probability won't charge no matter what. Probabilty to win a bet can change if you use a progression. But the payout ratio will change with it and this is called ODDS.

 

Thanks this is a good thread , much appreciated you took time to start it. Hopefully some good discussion comes from it. Cheers

 

Thanks for the encouragement. Too many people want a spoon fed system and they don't realize no matter how you play , you are not better or worse off. They are quick to analyze when someone losses and gave all sorts of sound advices of what not to do but they failed to find out the causes that makes them lose in the first place. Is it all just because of LUCK alone? Management issues? Bet selection issues?

 

Winnings and losses are great equalizers during a casino "campaign".


Nobody can teach anyone the winning edge. Knowing when to get up is the key.

 

I could teach how to get an edge in many games. But that would be stupid to create competition. Now if people like rxgamble wish to, that's their prerogative.

 

Another teacher for a game that can be explained on the size of a 2 x 3,5 inch business card .

 

Why would anyone in their right mind teach anyone how to play and create competition. It is in the winning players best interest that most people lose. This way the casinos make more money and the casinos would be more likely to tolerate the consistent winners.

 

Then why are you here? When you see everyone bets B, you will bet P. Is that right because why would you want to win with everybody?
Two people playing with the same approach will yield two different results unless they play on the same table. Create competition? The real competition is between you and yourself.

 

I’m here because I love the game of baccarat. I like to hear players talk about the game. I’m already a consistent winner, but sometimes I’ll hear an idea or someone’s opinion on something which actually makes sense. I’ll take their idea and add it to my arsenal of techniques.

 

Fair point. For the love of the game.
Do you considered be able to apply what is working at the moment with a shoe is a skill? I can see you are very focused on the offensive side of things.
So, you would only take and not give as far as this forum is concerned?

 

There absolutely is skill involved. It’s not random, like most players think it is.There are general gambling rules that I’m happy to share, but there are things that took me years to learn and discover, and it cost me a lot of money. Those are not for sharing.

 

Don't share anything. They all know better. Why bother. I am playing this game for over 25 years and know what it is without any illusions .





Casino games are illusions but render no solutions .

 

25 years is less than 26 years. No doubt you know a lot about Baccarat but I guarantee you that they are still a lot of important stuffs that you haven't even thought of.
Can you tell me why most people usually win at the beginning of a session and gave everything back together with their session bankroll? I want to hear your 25 years of experience. I want to learn. I know there is no right or wrong answers but I want to know your expert explanations.Thanks in advance.