Baccarat In depth discussion of trends in Baccarat

I have no problem with trend. The problem only is that I cannot prediction the next hand would continue or break the trend. Any kind of trends I picked to test, still consistent with the house.

So far a trend to me, the advantage is I will only lose one unit if I follow the trend but will keep losing x units if the trend continue. So I always suggest mynd when we go to play at casino, bet with the trend, not against it.

 

Sounds like you have lost all confidence of winning at Baccarat. There are many choices you can do with Baccarat but don't ever think that one will work every time. Look out for the topic that I will post later on how to make a bad shoe look good.

 

Yes, I don't have confidence to win because I can't beat the house. That's why I have not played for a very long time. Instead I am playing with stocks for a while, which I do much better. Trend is really your friend in stock market. There are more opportunities that stock is more than 50% chance, solid with math.

Now my idea is to think about the card randomness. Still try to figure out a way how to express the card distribution randomness in a math language. What kind or combination or randomness may favor P. It is a hard topic. Still can't find any one talking about it anywhere.

 

You said it well. It's random. Again you are trying to control something that we cannot control. I don't doubt you cos' it's like standing on flat ground when the Earth is actually round. That's why you kept thinking that we can wrestle the odds to our side. Give it up. The easiest way to win is don't complicate things . Simplify your approach.

 

I can't control it so I quit playing. I don't play it any more because I only trust in math. I have no idea how do you prove your approach can win in along term.

 

Do a google search on Wizard of Odds Baccarat card counting - Effects of removing a card.

His methodology is to start with full 8-deck shoe and count how many combinations end up with a banker win, player win, and tie win. Then he removes one card (valued 1-10/0) and recalculate those combinations. The difference shows the impact of missing that specific value card on the 3 results.

Then he translates the figures into impacts on house edge and further re-calibrates to a count adjustment, which gives you what you're looking for (6's are good, 4's are bad for Players).

 

Math and gambling is like Science and Religion. Do you believe in God or do you believe in Science?. Remember Baccarat players have the choice to choose when to bet , what to bet and bet amount. Did you lose control of these 3 things? If yes, then you are gambling and good luck. Do you have the desire to win? Have you get yourself into the habit of winning?
You mentioned Maths. Do you know what exactly Math is? If you calculate all MM (money management) progressions, they will all come back to even + the House Edge. Example: a 50/50 chance of winning should be paid even money. That's the definition of odds. I think you mixed up ODDS with PROBABILITY. ODDS = Probability over Payout.
A 5 step Martingle (1,2,4,8,16) progression has a win probability of 31 out of 32 but is neutralized to EVEN because 1 loss equals 31 wins.
So , you don't really need to be lucky to win with a 5 step Marty. You just need to dodge the 5 losses in a row. You may ask what about the long run? If you hit and run, there is no long run. By the time you lose a 5 step Marty, you would be well ahead in winnings that it will cover your losses.
Before you criticize, ask yourself on a losing day with other MM, wouldn't you lose 31 units or more? A 31 unit loss is not a big loss and a 5 step Marty is not easy to lose. If you chart and goes in to win 1 unit at a time for 8 units a day, you will get into a habit of winning. You will build up confidence and control. All these needs practice. If you do not want to risk money, you can run practice sessions. Make sure YOU DO NOT CONTINUOUSLY BETTING HAND AFTER HAND. Chart, Chart, and Chart. I only make 2 bets the most in a shoe.
I urge you to try it before you jump into any conclusion.

 

Math and Science are provable/disprovable. Religion is not.

Where math and science could fail is in the modeling of reality. All models are approximations of reality. If the conditions at a particular casino deviate far enough from those ideal models, then you may be able to exploit those differences.

Otherwise, most of what we believe is based on psychology, hope, and gambler's fallacy.

From what I can tell, Lani is speaking from experience. His current stance appears to be reasonable to me.

 

Just out of curiosity, why are you doing what you are doing? Baccarat was made into a casino game for the house in Math terms. The reason I have success so far is because I approach it with control and planning and discipline. Math to me is marginal and marginal advantages can be overcome. IMO you are more of a Science and Math guy. Anyway I respect that.

 

Craps, I don't mean to offend you. If I have, I apologize.

I'm just looking for real advantage play.

In fact, recently, I'm erring on the side of believing in the possibility of "unorthodox ideas". For example, in another thread, someone else hammered me for wanting to investigate the possibility that odds may be different at the beginning of a deck vs towards the end.

Perhaps they may be different enough to take advantage of. Perhaps they are too small. I do not know. But I feel it may be worth some effort to check it out.

There are many things I don't know about bac, and I'm glad to hear from players like you who have played this game for decades. So keep throwing out ideas. If anything catches my eye, I'll be here to investigate (for better or worse) to see if there's any real advantage we can all use.

 

Its all cool man. From my experience there are a lot of instances where the Math part is the same BUT the outcome is overwhelmingly biased.
As a dealer myself, most bettors are Banker bias. Even if they like the Player side, they would either sit out or bet a diminished amount. The 2 instances where bettors lost the most is No 2nd Bank hands and Player dominant shoes.
I onced advised a high roller who was a generous tipper. He is very bias towards the Bank. He does bet the Player though. I told him a quote. BET BANK, but DON"T BET AGAINST THE PLAYER. He told me he was so grateful for the advise that he was able to salvage a lot of winning sessions

Can you kindly run a test to see whether this works. After every Player no BANK bet.

 

So bet Flat Bank, but if PlayerWins, sit out next (one) bet? Next next bet go back to flat Bank always?

I might have to get to your test tomorrow (I'm doing some hairy coding converting some Monte Carlo into more precise Markov Chain calculations, but of course, this blows up as the number of decks in a shoe increases due to an increase in the number of permutations - lots of fun ^^).

 

Lani, I need to correct my earlier comment. It's the opposite.
I ran a one deck Markov Chain and got this:

Code:

TOTAL       = 1.000000
PLAYER      =  442900 (44.68%) [0.02 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.09 -0.03 -0.09 -0.06 0.00 0.00]
BANKER      =  455500 (45.96%) [0.05 -0.04 -0.10 -0.11 -0.15 -0.03 0.06 0.07 0.14 0.11]
TIE         =  101600 (9.36%) [-0.31 0.08 0.37 0.39 0.31 0.26 0.14 -0.07 -0.64 -0.53]
SUM         = 1000000
PASS

So this says that 4's show up a lot (+0.09) and 6's don't (-0.09) for a playerWin in a 1 deck shoe.
4's help you get playerWin and 6's don't help you get playerWin.

So, according to WOO, REMOVING a 4 will HURT your chances of getting a playerWin - which is consistent with my findings, because having 4's in the deck helps you.

 

In a 50/50 game where (excluding ties) there is only two outcomes, there will be biases. That is undisputed however everyone needs to keep in mind that no matter the bias the last hand DOES NOT effect the next hand. This game is not BJ where the past cards will dictate future events. There are things that happen 100% of the time in the shoe (Yes 100%). I am not going to say that you will win 100% of the time because although certain things happen, we cannot predict WHEN they will happen. I say this because while playing the biases are a good way to play but play the biases that the casinos are not focusing on, not the obvious.

 

Your vision of the game is extraordinary but hard to believe. Certain things that will happen 100% of the time for you to exploit? Anyway, its good to "make believe" if that helps. Like religion. What have one got to lose? Religion teaches good morality. Your 100% things must have brought you success.
I somewhat agree because certain hands in a shoe will give the bettor "advantage" and usually it prevails. Again the word is trends. In Macau, you will see people 3 deep and yelling with joy at these situations. LIke a golfer knowing exactly before a shot where the ball would land. Its not a "manufactured feeling ". Its has to come by itself.

 

No, flat bet B only after B. Stop after P until it goes B again.

 

One of my project I did before is computing the possibility for the next hand. I did programming so that is not hard to find out. With recording the history played cards then knowing what cards left in the shoe, so in order to calculate the possibilities. The result shows that almost the whole shoe has the approximate odds until the very last few hands because not much cards left. So some combinations of cards will have some advantage with odds more than 50%, then I can bet. The thing is not many shoes will show such >50% at the end shoe. When I have time, I can dig up my hard drive and show you the results I have.

That gives me a hint to make a new project about what 6-card combination have advantage (>50%) to play. I know that 6-card combinations will be 9^6. Then group those >50%. But the next problem is how good can I predict the next 6 cards in the shoe. By counting the history cards is a must, then how random is the shoe is the next problem.

 

Although cards left in shoe at some point shows advantage to one side, but there are still random in distribution. What about those times where you can't find advantages. Wasting the whole time documenting the cards and NOT bet? On paper a lot of things can be discussed but your idea of cards left in the shoe cannot be implemented in a live game.

 

There was once a high roller at my casino who only plays on a reserved game. He could put his laptop on while he is playing. He ended losing his entire bankroll and was never seen again.

 

Yes, I said that before, it is not feasible. Just for research purpose.