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Roulette In the random game, all bet selections are equal

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by Jerome, Jan 29, 2019.

  1. Jerome

    Jerome Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2018
    Likes:
    83
    Occupation:
    Self-Employed
    Location:
    England
    Let's look at the logic of playing the unhit numbers, as in Turbo's example. Suppose you wait until there are only 12 numbers left unhit and then begin playing those numbers for a full cycle (37 spins). If there was any advantage in doing so, you would expect there to be some correlation between how long it takes until there are only 12 numbers left, and either (a) the number of wins you would get in the cycle, or (b) the number of spins before you got the FIRST win in the cycle (or both).

    eg, suppose it takes 50 spins before there are 12 numbers left. Wouldn't this be better than the case when it only took 30 spins before there were only 12 numbers left? If you created a chart with the "sleep" length on the horizontal axis (ie number of spins before 12 unhit #s) against (a) number of wins in the following cycle and (b) number of spins before the first win, you would expect there to be at least some hint of a trend or correlation between these variables. But there is none.

    Here's a chart showing the results of 1000 sessions with SLEEP on the x-axis and WINS on the y-axis :

    [​IMG]

    As you can see, there's no correlation or trend at all. It's just a random "cloud" which shows that it doesn't matter how long the sleep is; the number of wins could be anywhere between 5 and 19, regardless of how many spins you had to wait until there were only 12 numbers left.

    Again, here's another chart showing SLEEP on the x-axis and "Spins Until First Win" on the y-axis (SUFW) :

    [​IMG]

    Except for the outcomes being clustered more towards the bottom of the chart (which just reflects the fact that on average the first hit will occur sooner rather than later), there is again no correlation or trend, which means that the first win isn't likely to occur sooner if the waiting time for 12 unhits is longer.
     
  2. Jerome

    Jerome Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2018
    Likes:
    83
    Occupation:
    Self-Employed
    Location:
    England
    I've attached the file which the above charts were generated from. It's a csv file so you can open it in a spreadsheet and easily analyse the results. I simulated 1000 sessions selecting the 12 unhit numbers, and then picking 12 numbers randomly, so the data shows the results from both bet selections. Here is the key to the column headings :

    SESSION - Session number
    S_SUFW - Spins until first win (sleepers)
    S_WINS - wins in that session (sleepers)
    S_BANK - final bank for that session (sleepers)
    SLEEP - number of spins it took before there were 12 #s left
    S_CUM.BANK - cumulative bank (sleepers)
    S_CUM.WINS - cumulative wins (sleepers)
    R_SUFW - spins until first win (random)
    R_WINS - wins in that session (random)
    R_BANK - final bank for that session (random)
    R_CUM.BANK - cumulative bank (random)
    R_CUM.WINS - cumulative wins (random)

    Even without doing proper statistical tests, it's not hard to see that there are no significant differences.
     

    Attached Files:

  3. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2018
    Likes:
    28
    Location:
    Vegas

    ""But for a year ? Starting with 0 and at 3/4 million now, no resets and not 1 losing
    session ?'''



    turbo is this your parx or rsim account? Did you flat bet or use a positive progression?
    do you shoot for a minimum profit/sins each session? do you have large (1000 to 2000+ units) drawdowns that you eventually recover from. Thanks
     

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