Blackjack Introducing Seven Roadrunners at Positive AceMT True Counts in Blackjack

In blackjack, players’ hitting 12-to-16 stiff hands will bust more often at high true counts. In contrast, dealers’ overall bust rate actually drops at high true counts.

High true count is also the time when card counters bet more than usual. If available, surrender may cut a huge potential loss by half. It is a blackjack rule variation that distinctly favors knowledgeable card counters the most. Knowing when to surrender a hand in addition to those noted in basic strategy is important.

Presented in the table below are seven deviation indices, which Moraine dubbed as Seven Roadrunners, for surrendering between 0 and +4 AceMT blackjack true counts. (Counters using Hi-Lo, instead of AceMT for counting blackjack, may multiply the numbers shown by 1.625 for the equivalent deviation indices in Hi-Lo.)

 

Every time a player surrenders, the player immediately loses one-half of the bet. If you wonder why surrender, how about simply standing pat instead, and see what may happen next?

Well well well, very true, if luck is on your side, dealer may bust with any up-card in any particular hand. Moraine can't argue against that, but Moraine knows this: A lower-than-17 hand can't ever push with the dealer. Unless the player hits, the player's only hope is that the dealer will bust, and the dealer must bust more often than 1-in-4 in order that a stand decision may make mathematical sense. But the bust rate for an 8-to-Ace up card is always less than 25% regardless of any AceMT true counts -- actually regardless of any card counting system used.

So, take heed from 7 Roadrunners, a player should hit or split like the blackjack basic strategy says, or surrender like 7 Roadrunners will do -- but never ever stand on a lower-than-17 hand in face of dealer's 8-to-Ace up-card when hit, split or surrender is still possible.