Baccarat Is there any strategy can win the house??

Results are worse betting Banker only, due to the commissions.

Forum member Lemonade ran a 100k session sim and found the chance of doubling a bankroll betting Banker only was 22.76% vs 28.68% for Player.

https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/oscars-grind-baccarat.20985/page-23#post-116400

It is a 'deadly' system, as Alan Wilson called it.

 

Whatever turns you on B or P . and knowing when to get off the table W or L

Enjoy.

 

This is just the brute force approach favoured by sim junkies, not calling you one , as I don’t know you, if you don’t use some sort of finesse the result you quoted are ENTIRELY correct. It’s akin to pouring water down a sink you just unilaterally pour and pour and go oh wow the bucket is empty, whereas you could have interrupted the process.

I’m not questioning the gazillion results the sim runners post results for but I can tell you in a person lifetime they never physically get to that figure.

Yet one has to ask.
If what you say is true and set in stone “ why are there people making a living from baccarat/roulette ?” They have to be doing something different to what the sim runners are doing. Same game different approach.

Globally more people die in car, bike, bus, pedestrian accidents than boat or plane crashes yet it’s still the preferred form of travel and that’s at least a collective human witness of a gazillion events in the past 100 years, min.

If you are limited by the gazillion results then you need to quit the scene, if you constantly look for the gazillion results to verify what you are doing you are more and more becoming the hamster on the wheel with every passing moment. It’s not going to work. Cheers

 

I love the dipshits that have to prove that a strategy is wrong because they’ve run 10 quadrillion shoes and the HE always comes out ahead. The great thing is that we have the opportunity to quit and try again later with better results. The casino can never stop. They will never lose in the long run but we can make them lose in the short term. We will never play as much as the casino therefore we have opportunity to take from it regularly on the short term. If managed correctly we beat the house edge. I’ll never play 10 quadrillion shoes so those results are meaningless and irrelevant to me.

 

Ok 2 nd time around, trouble with this site lately, lol.

Yes agree, the next bone of contention is of course “the short term” as always this is the polar opposite of long term that gets the spandex boyo, sim junkies and martbationists frothing at all orifices trying to justify “ long term gazillion”

Short term is a variable known ONLY to the individual that uses it as a tool, the length is not overly quantifiable across the broad spectrum of participants. For me , as an example, today a single individual winner bet placement qualifies as short term , yesterday it may have been 30 hands played and tomorrow it could be less than yesterday but more than today. These constructs may differ across the board,it’s a tool along with m.m. etc.

Those that practice 1000s of continuous hands plus on the O.grind still will never get to the long term, but it can still be considered “short term” in the less than gazillion hands long term perception of sim runner etc. But to O grinders it’s not short term either.
Insert monkeys here. Lol

I’ve advocated previous posts the need to trial your “ selection method plus unit stakes, required bankroll” etc this is purely to galvanise yourself for the mechanics of the method plus the mechanics of correct unit value outlay so as to not potentially have a “mental or emotional freeze” during rough piece of play therefore preventing you from right bet placement (player,bank,red,black,etc) and equally as damaging besides not putting the right unit value out is of course missing the bet unit placement entirely. This can lead to all sorts of disasters Yes trials are important but it is a tool ONCE again to be used constructively and then put away. A tidy workbench is a beer table at the end of the day.

The topic of posters of results of a gazillion play really should have their own thread heading on this forum much like baccarat, crap, roulette etc. so should the martybationists get their own thread forum. Imho. To be honest their particular bent caters for their like mind kind. Nothing wrong with that , it’s the blind fanaticism that gets irksome, mo.
Yes many ways to grease up that pig, but the combination of real skills, real skin in the game, real m.m , real experience and most importantly real profitable results from sustained professionalism is key.
Cheers

 

If they are, they are not using OG. It never wins big numbers, since you are always betting to add just one unit to your existing bankroll, and it always loses more than it wins.

I did not run ‘gazillions’ of trials. Except for the Zumma trials, none of my trials went beyond 1,200 hands.

The first set of sims ended when the bet reached 100 units, and started over at a single unit.

The second set ended when the bet reached 500 units and started again with a single unit.

Absurd to be betting 100 units in order to increase your existing bankroll by a single unit.

Even more absurd to be betting 500 units in order to gain a single unit.

Far more absurd when commissions are taken into account.

Wilson ran 280,000 trials. He did not indicate how long or short those trials were. Some could have ended after 100 hands, others could have ended after thousands of hands.

His total losses for all 284,000 trials combined was 584,000 units.

I does not matter what the top bet limit is, OG will lose, either in the short run, or the long run.

Quitting after a loss doesn’t make any difference. You may never recover from it, and there is an 18% chance of two consecutive disastrous events.

As Wilson explained, you never know when the disastrous event will occur.

Try it on the WOO website, or using some of the shoes posted by members here.

You might win more sessions than you will lose, but the losses from the losing sessions will always exceed the wins.

 

I ran 25 shoes.

Highest bet was 8 units. Average high bet was 4.4 units.

Lost 14 shoes. Won 11.

Total loses: -81 units

Average loss per shoe was three times the expected rate.

 

Doing what?
Have you stopped to think that maybe it’s your selection criteria that is incorrect and pushing up your units?

Did the castaway friend ever reveal the selection criteria he used in his sim run before he drifted stage left on the ocean of forever ( Tom hank film) ? Are you using the same same as he did? The same same as all the other o.gs posting here?

Are we comparable criteria or totally different, it does of course make a difference. One person’s inability to succeed should not be the mantra that EVERYONE else must also fail.

To reiterate I don’t favour the O.g , nor Martybation nor ladder sequence etc etc as posted previously various threads. So I’m not attacking you. I’m familiar and experienced with all of the above and I can state that my particular selection criteria did not lend it self well to those formats of betting. The table limits mainly for martybation and the emotional and mental toll of high end ladder betting for tens upon nearly hundreds of continuous hands became not my cup of tea. A weakness? No . A sound and reasonable correction of my own psychology to adapt to what suits me etc. this is an example of apples v apples. Cheers

 

So you actually play in the casinos or just make yourself believe you’re figuring things out from home?

Here’s a fun challenge for you, and for anyone for that matter.

Spend a few days at a casino, preferably at stadium bac where you can track multiple games at the fastest pace possible.

treat each dealing station as a continuous shoe, not to be mixed up with other dealers. If you understand OG and know how to track it, then virtually do so.

track it until OG would be -500 units or more.

now be amazed when it recovers to +1 before it hits -1,000

how often does it recover before hitting -1,000? About 75% of the time.

do this as long as you’d like, if you watch 4 games simultaneously for 10
Hours a day, you’ll almost always see at least 1 opportunity in a given day that OG will go -500 (banker only) happens way more often on player, ignore that.

if you watch this trigger happen 10 times, you will see it recover to +1 without hitting -1,000 at least 7 times. But most likely more. Maybe even all 10 times.

I have over 83,000 real life sessions documented now. Which I realize is a small amount as far as “simulations” go; but I wouldn’t consider my 8 figure profit in the last half decade to be small.

that’s 8 figures with a starting capital of $300.

Obviously, you’ll have little to no interest in actually doing what I suggested, but if you do… and you’re left scratching your head wondering why it works…. How in the hell are you doubling your bankroll 75% of the time when some guy named lemonade said the possibility was 22%. You may even feel like you’re on to something… but you aren’t. I was, and I’ve done it.

I’m not a system tester. I don’t run any simulations to verify my data. I don’t know a lick of programming and probably never will. I have assisted several “programmers” and even paid a few to run sims for me. Everyone’s data seems to be inconsistent. The only thing that is consistent is my real life progress.

I’m not anti math. I appreciate it and believe in math. It’s real. Odds are real, statistics are real. Math doesn’t make mistakes, but programmers do. Especially biased programmers that set out to try and discredit something and continually miss small calculations. I’ve grown tired of helping people prove me wrong. I grew tired of paying people to
Help me find the weak spots.

In lemonades defense. He did seem like the only person to run any sims that felt like they were put programmed the best, but something doesn’t add up.

I used to credit myself with possibly being lucky and that my possible ignorance would be my downfall… but it never happened. I stayed ahead of my game, I consistently grew in joy only bankroll, but knowledge, bigger safeguards, etc.

The game can be beaten. It has been beaten.

I’ve retired from baccarat a few months ago. Finally hit my long-term goal and have since moved on to things I enjoy in life. I owe all of my good fortune to this game. I’d love to see other people succeed in a way that I have. It sucks that there are snug folks out here trying to disprove things they don’t actually full grasp. It’s okay to be wrong. You’ve been on this earth long enough to be used to it.

 

Since you asked. I play three or four days a week at Aqueduct in NYC, where I can play four RNG games simultaneously. I flat bet Banker only and win an average of 55.65% of all my bets. Been doing it for more than a year.

The stadium games are all eight deck. Even the RNG ones. Once a new shoe begins, so does your 500 count. In any event, it takes an average of 24,000 hands to reach the point of what would be a 500 unit bet. At two hands per minute that is 12,000 minutes, or 200 hours of waiting.

The RNG games have an added feature. They change shoes randomly at any moment. There is no way for the player to detect this. No matter what your count to 500 is, it starts over with a new shoe.

One trial took 30,300 hands to reach the 500 unit point. Starting at that point, with a $5 unit, the bankroll fell $47,000 over the next 4,000 hands, before recovering to + $90.

 

I never said anything about a 500 unit bet.

But I did mention something about how you’re probably used to being wrong.

 

Correct. You mentioned a -500 trigger point. Even worse.

You initially mentioned waiting until Player was -20. After Lemonade proved you only had a 23% chance of doubling your bankroll before losing it, using that trigger, and doubted anyone could make money with it, you said that was 'old news' and you were now using a -500 trigger point. That’s a lot of waiting. Out of the 45,000 decisions in the Zumma tester, Player never approaches being -500 to banker.

 

My edit
Are you sure about that ?
Can you send a photo of screen the moment it changes? Could you also send a photo of when the whole screen is full after the just photo of latest reset? To his thread please, If you don’t mind of course. here is a example photo of what we have here in skipptophia rng,
Sorry couldn’t get to load photos.
I will repost later today.

I can tell you exactly the likely position on the end of the rng 8 deck shoe, although I unfortunately don’t have the next shot as I had deleted it some months back. Next time I go I will take the photos to show. I may even check some emails I’ve sent to colleagues ,that I discuss this subject with , and see if the relevant follow up photo is available.

To be honest when I used to scuttle about within the confines of the brickyard casinoverse regulated box I too used to be blinkered in my assumption of what is what. Akin to the matrix I took the other pill and saw a lot of what most assumed was the only way was actually just plain incorrect, to put it mildly . Cheers

 

100% sure about the switching. These are Interblock machines. I don't play Dynasty, and I would never think of playing Shufflemaster. When they were using real cards, the machines would randomly switch shoes as we watched. Sometimes after only seven hands, or thirty, or fifty. Sometimes dealing the entire eight deck shoe. They don't do it break up long streaks. I see double digit streaks on both sides every day.

When I complained about the constant switching, I was told by the tech and later by the casino via e-mail, the machines are programmed by the vendor and the random switching is solely controlled by the vendor. Which in this case is Interblock.

When they eliminated the cards due to constant dealer machine malfunctions, I complained once again. They assured me the RNG was still shuffling an eight-deck shoe and dealing it as before. Including the random switches. The newest machines occasionally display 'cards not ready', which indicates a shoe switch. Except for that notice, the RNG game continues seamlessly and there is no way to tell that the switch has taken place by looking at the console display. A photo would not show the switch. We only knew about the earlier switches because we could see them physically taking place.

They've installed some new real card machines, and we can once again watch the random shoe switches as they occur.

 

Weren't you writing a book about your adventures? When is the book coming out?

 

He's still waiting for that -500 unit mark.

 

Yes sir. No set release date. I write very casually, since there’s no agenda or pressure to release something, I can take my time.

 

Oh Robert, you’re a gem.

 

This is the problem and you should be excused from further comment, you are comparing sour grapes with sweet watermelon, you reread your posts this thread and see if YOU can see what the problem is.

Im not overly concerned with the impact on your self re the information you posted but I’m more inclined to address the correction so that others are not lead astray .

I will wait until tomorrow, if you haven’t reply then I will spell it out for you. Not being personal but there is a fundamental flaw here. Cheers