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Baccarat I've found a way to consistently win in Baccarat...ENJOY!

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Play2Win, Apr 17, 2020.

  1. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    -Cheers I agree with you, depends where I’m at profit wise for the the day or particular shoe in play. But I never let it fully ride as it has to lose. I really did let it ride in its truest sense many years ago I’d let it all ride off $100 bet x 8or 9 wins straight,table maxed it, less a bit of table differential, about $21k and lost on that hand. Although it was exciting it was incredibly stupid of me as at the end of the day I was down a few thousand. I should have ,I could have , why didn’t I , etc was the conversation in the head on drive home, self admonishments become the mental scaring that put you years behind the 8 ball. I was just going through the show pony phase of gambling which did a lot of damage and cost a lot of money.
    -Well now I may not do the look at me look at me type of betting I can make more money than most. I can honestly say I’ve hit a few ten win streak in last few years but mostly it’s the runs of 2 ,3 and 4 or 5s , so in knowing that is my strike ratio , knowing that it HAS to lose, I’m more frugal beyond 5 wins in a row. The casino can make more money off other people to keep the light on. But each to their own. Some people need to show boat, that’s ok .
    Cheers
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
    Rinad likes this.
  2. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    In many ways I sometimes think I should encourage people to play martingale, play slot machine, to maybe believe the herd mentality of a table or anyone if not all of the gamblers fallacies that seem to etch itself into the urban myth of gambling. I even remembered players saying that a particular dealer is unlucky ( hard to win against) .
    -Why would I make a statement as just stated above? - it allows me to fly under the radar. The casino derives the most money from the above mentioned methods people play by. If more people change the way they bet the casino go out of business as less people lose.
    -So we need these people, so we can have aircon in summer, free drinks, etc. Hmmm food for thought.
    Cheers
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  3. Rinad

    Rinad Member

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  4. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I looked over Play2Win posts for the first time. I'll make a few comments. First I'll thank Play2Win for his participation. I'm sure it has helped some and also has helped him through reflection and reinforcement.

    As far as "good tables" go and the demeanor of players at the table reminds me of Jerry Paterson - happy players are winning philosophy. There is some truth to this. We win when there exists some consistency on the table so if we see happy tables we might look at the outcomes for this consistency and jump in hoping that consistency will remain.

    It appears that Play2Win uses MM combined betting style to accomplish a trending style that has brought him success. What's his bet selection? Dunno, and likely it would be a fairly complicated thing to verbalize. But let me try to explain trending. Maybe this will add some fuel for thought. Consider ECD's NOR. I am not advocating it. It is just a simple way to look at trending. N (neutral) O (opposite) and R (repeat). The O and the R are the easiest to see. Either the shoe has a dominance of chops or repeats, respectively (O and R). It's unusual (not rare) to see a shoe where O or R tends to dominate most or all of the decisions in the shoe. Most shoes fall into the N (neutral) category. It has been said by more than one experienced punter that generally a shoe has 4 different "sections" exhibiting 1 or more of the N,O and R criteria.

    So trending then is a guess. And after guessing it requires a betting style to either reduce losses or increase wins. It appears that Play2Win is flat betting a perceived dominant trend. That's why he monitors several tables. Based on winning or losing he uses MM, which he has more or less defined, to accomplish a win or keep a loss to a minimum. Reducing losses is a key to long term winning, IMO.

    I've used trends in a lot of different ways over the years. A basic way I have used to monitor and define trends is to "key" off the singletons. The number of singles and how they are grouped in a given shoe can give an inkling as to the dominance of various trends in the shoe. Simply put, areas of the shoe or even a shoe with an extreme dearth of singles represents a shoe that favors "R" dominance while. The opposite is true for the "O" dominance. Maybe that will give people some ideas.

    Sputnik's thread a little more complicated but also is a good way to identify trends through bias and dominance.

    Again, in the end it's about consistency. Either it exists or it doesn't. Learn to recognize that can help.

    J
     
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  5. Rinad

    Rinad Member

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    Punkcity I get your point trust me. in the same way I have regrets the time I could of won that 21k bet and backed off too early.
    maybe there is a way you can bake your cake and eat it too. maybe after locking a profit on the 8th bet, make the same bet once again ,so that if it loses you still show a profit but if it does'nt you get a chance at the 12,16.....hands in a row ?
    1.1.2.2.3.4...4.8.16.32...32.64.128....128,ect......
    just my 2 cents. of course much easier said then done,lol
    Regards
    Rinad
     
  6. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    —Yes I agree ,but I usually gauge how my day is going, how many days I’ve played recently, how much profit I’m up , how much time have I played ( fatigue) then I decide to let it ride or not and at what units to gamble. From a pressure release mechanism this easy money we make gambling is the hardest easy money anyone you can attempt to make.
    -To combat this pressure/stress which is there (most don’t realise it and wonder why mistakes creep in , or your selection criteria is running faulty) I recommend to others I know and most importantly to myself is to have a free betting day . A slutty day for lack of a better word. For this afternoon or couple of hours I’m going to be a dum arse player, I will throw a few dollars into a slot machine, I will maybe play roulette and auto shuffle blackjack , just for fun and not worry about the amount other than it’s the budget for this exercise. This is usually the time I’d let it ride. . etc.
    Cheers
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
    Rinad likes this.
  7. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    Good post , the N, O, R, you just posted is actually the description that I would say best describes the way I use the Macau screen in conjunction with the main board. I had been unable to put into the correct word sequence to describe how I play in the stadium thread I’m posting. So thanks I will put a reference on that thread to come to this thread and read your post.
    Cheers
     

  8. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    SPOT ON about "this easy money we make gambling is the hardest easy money anyone can attempt to make." Also this "pressure/stress" you mentioned is so real and true. For me until recently (about last 20 trips) I've found a personal cure for that. When I feel very uptight, either too tight on MM or not making any progress, I now choose to have a beer or 2 (my max is probably 7-8 pacing out, so 1-2 is really nothing), it helps me to relax and loosing up a little bit. Also, another one is to have a table massage...if you haven't, try it. I usually do 30-45' with a nice looking masseuse, chatting up a bit to take my mind off the game (tried to play hands during, but usually didn't do well so now I stay out). Not sure if that qualifies for a "slutty day" that you mentioned about LoL At least I think it's a better use of $ than just throwing some $ into slot or roulette in my opinion kkk
     
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  9. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Thanks Jimske, I've read a few of your posts before and when I started this thread, of course I was also looking to get some experienced players like you and others on this forum to share some knowledge about this game.
    I'm very much interested in "generally a shoe has 4 different "sections" exhibiting 1 or more of the N,O and R criteria", would you help clarifying those 4 sections in details?
    I guess two of those would be: B/P/chop IAR streaking section, and a dominant section right? What about the other twos?

    Even better if you can shred some lights into how to play/attack those sections once you're able to identify them during the course of a shoe. Thanks in advance.
     
  10. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    -I don’t mix pleasures, never drink alcohol, drugs before or during play, never masseuse at screen to easy to make a mistake. As I drive to and from the casino home I don’t drink.

    Afterwards outside the casino yeah sure most things go.

    My reference to a slutty session is directly related to the casino and casino activities, it’s directly related to the psychological link of gambling at baccarat it’s that link of stress I’m aiming to release. A most important tool in a gamblers arsenal don’t bring problem with you as you play ,ie argument with partner, kids, boss etc , outside financial problems or alcohol/drug use to the table you’re playing. Ordering a mind altering beverage should be a no no. As per my personal opinion please note that.
    What is that saying don’t take you work home with you, same in reverse in gambling successfully. I will release other pressure from outside casino in other ways I find over the years that works for me.

    When casino open again try not drinking the free alcohol while you play and see if you lift your selections to a higher level. There is a reason casino giveaway free alcohol and offer other distractions, showgirls, music, loudly announced trivia over the speakers, etc. this paragraph is directed at the generic you and not directly at you play2win.

    So that’s what a slutty day at a casino is for me, it works for me.
    Each to their own.
    Cheers
     
  11. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Yes Punkcity I understood your "slutty day" reference exactly the way you explained it. I was just making a humorous link between the masseuse and the slutty part lol. On a serious note usually when I do that it's when I'm already up and about to cash out. Part of that is to enjoy a bit after going through a horrendous losing streak (months, which you could tell how bad and heavy my morality was), kind of turning the table against the casino, enjoying on their turf payback feeling. As for the beer, yes I only do it when I'm at a deadlock session (can't make any progress) so just needed a little boost. At no point I'm "altered" by it, I usually take 30' to finish a beer so it isn't that bad. But like you said, each to their own when it comes to pressure relief.
     
  12. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    Well written, good post. Nice thread. Cheers
     
  13. Rinad

    Rinad Member

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    well said guys. I think we often hear too often "its all business", sure it is but we forget this one "if you cant find any enjoyment in your work why even doing it?"
    following the passion we all share is what matters. I remember reading a book where the author had mentioned "if you could play a method when you could win 1 unit a day for 364 days (a year) and then lose it all in one day, you would be happy 364 days ! about these odds ?
    just making a point of course. the journey is more important then the goal in many aspects of life. think of that, make the Goal be the Journey and maybe we will unlock to "real winnings".
    as a matter of fact I heard Annie Duke (pro-poker player) mentioned in a interview that when players focus too much on the outcome instead of trusting the process they are using they make a huge mistake.
    the process, the journey, is to be enjoyed even more then the outcome and thinking of it, is,nt it the only thing we can actually control ? and not the short term outcome ?
    God bless,
    Rinad
     
  14. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    Play2Win, thanks for the post

    question how do you get to plus 5 if you always quit at +3 per original post? sorry if i missed something. thanks
     

  15. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Hey Jacob, +5 is when I won all 5 bets. Usually that happened on a streak, that’s why it’s only a few. Also for my last few trips, I’ve changed up a bit: I’m now bringing 10 units with Win Goal of 20 units. Quite a high Win Goal but I have a way of doing it as stated in a previous Post. 3/3 successful trips so far. Sooner or later I’ll bust but I’m already +60 units on those 3 trips alone. —> Now I have at least six “on-the house” 10 unit trips. Can’t wait for this virus to be over with so I can continue on the streak. I’ll do some Trip Reports on this same thread when I’m back in the game...
     
  16. JacobBlaze

    JacobBlaze Active Member

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    thanks
    that's how i backtested on my live shoes on betonline live dealer, i play all shoe if needed and go on to the next shoe if i'm not at -3 or +3 so some results(trips) span muliple shoes
    , first trip took 4 shoes to win 3 units $265 after commission testing $100 units as that is required at most high limit places i play at in order to skip hands and play all shoe normally alone.

    11th trip took 5 shoes to finally win the 3 units ($250 minus commision)

    if i have to play all shoe i normally will play 5 to 10 hands per shoe

    my results so far:

    ill try to update after more live shoes recorded

    12 TRIPS (results) 25 shoes used
    3 - 9 TRIPS +27
    -3 - 3 TRIPS -9

    18 units
    plus $1565 after commision

    $265 4SHOES
    $-300 2SHOES
    $280 2SHOES
    $-305 1SHOE
    $285 1SHOE
    $275 1SHOE
    $280 3SHOES
    $290 1SHOE
    $280 2SHOES
    $290 1SHOE
    $250 5SHOES
    $-325 2SHOES
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2020
  17. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    I’m curious as to how you ran the tests, because of my very selective bet selection. (My BS is not a fixed system for a computer to be able to generate). Furthermore, I don’t really believe in stimulation tests. The real game is where it matters, so much more involved: money, emotion, pressure, stress, distraction... The real winner is who can minimize/eliminate those factors, not to mention having good to great strategy in both MM & BS... Unless you’re already a long time player, I afraid you still need to go all the pains to eventually gain an edge in this game.
    Good luck on your game.
     
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  18. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Post #8 Post Covid-19 play and Trip Report(s)

    Well as you guys might already know, we start to have casinos reopen in certain states. I plan to give it a Go next weekend, depends on how my comfort level is in the first day I might abort the trip or stay for an extra day. Few areas I'll pay attention to:
    -Since my current game depends on playing on multiple tables (with actions, or hands being dealt), and I'm not sure how the limited tables/players will affect that. Hopefully still enough tables/actions going on, so I can really pick my spots to bet.
    -I'm sure will wear mask and gloves, but honestly I'll listen to my instinct when it comes to the health risks. If I don't feel comfortable, I'll abort the session and wait for a later time. The risk outweighs the reward now.
    -Any of you have recently played in a casino? If yes please share your experience and opinion...
    ----------------
    Trip Report #1 (after Covid)

    As mentioned before I'll share some upcoming Trip Reports. For Trip #1, here is my goal:
    Session Bankroll: 10 units
    Win Goal: +20 units
    Stop Loss: -10 units (all session bankroll)

    Bet Selection: I'll continue on betting "Selective Trending" hands combining with my personal "unique" method.
    Money Management: I'll continue on being very tight on BS to get a few units up, then apply a more aggressive positive progression sequence betting to achieve my Win Goal in the shortest time possible.
    Time: Usually in the past it took me 3-4 hours on average to get +20 units. Key is being very patient, if good shoe, then it might be quick. If bad shoes, or up and down a lot, then it might take hours longer. This time I feel like it might be longer because the possibility of lacking of tables/actions.

    Areas of Improvement:
    For this trip, I'll focus to improve on:
    a) Play streaks more aggressively (gradually pressing, especially when I'm already up). Of course I won't know if it's going to be a streak, but I'll try my best to identify them. If my first or second bets won, I'll keep riding it. "Risk one to win many".
    b) Play dominant portions of the shoes better (B or P dominance).
    In the past this is one of my weak spots, I usually don't win a lot of money here. Mainly because I:
    -waited too long.
    -after winning a few small bets, I then did a "loaded" bet and since it's still 50/50, many times I ended up breaking even or even down.
    SO this time I'll utilize a more conservative MM strategy, more or less flat-betting (1 unit, max 2 units). If I'm to identify these portions of the shoe right, I should be up ~5 units or so each.

    Any feedback/opinion on above areas of improvement are greatly appreciated.
    Other than that, stay SAFE and stay tuned for my coming Trip Report(s)… (next weekend).
     
  19. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei New Member

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    Lower your win goal in terms of units.
    Bet at higher denomination to achieve the same win goal in terms of $.
    This will shorten your sessions.
     
  20. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Hey Zhang, thanks for the tip.
    A few reasons for my current Bankroll vs Win Goal ratio. First I'm used to marathon sessions in the past, so 3-4 hrs are still very manageable for me in term of concentration to play my A game. Second I do indeed have a $ win goal (more so than the Unit win goal, even they pretty much mean the same thing. But in real play you don't always stick to the whole Unit bets, so Yes I always have a $ Win Goal in mind as well). Ideally winning 10-20% of your Starting session bankroll is best, but for me, since I travel far (fly) I'd need 200% Return of Investment to worth my time and effort. So for me it's actually a few sessions within a Session (that is, winning +3/+5 is one session by itself, so Win Goal of +20 is actually a few sessions adding together. I have to play them consecutively now because of the time constraint since I don't go to casinos as often anymore).
    And no, since my Unit size is big enough I feel like if I increase the size I'd just put more $ at risk. In the past I've done so, brought more money with me and it just gave me a false sense of security, then in turn I take more risks (play riskier hands than usual, "thinking" I have more $ in my pocket). So now when I travel I only bring 20 units, breaking down into two 10-unit day sessions. "Minimal risk, higher return" is the name of my game now.
     
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