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Baccarat I've found a way to consistently win in Baccarat...ENJOY!

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Play2Win, Apr 17, 2020.

  1. Thanhtai

    Thanhtai New Member

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    I don't understand . Because I use google translation but not true . Do you have me ? you Speak more about the article of your article? Thanks
     
  2. samc

    samc Member

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    good post. thanks
     
  3. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Cheers for cheat sheet, have been away and now just catch up on the good threads, much appreciated cheers.
     
  4. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb Member

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    Hey PC and PTW,

    If I may ask, if two people are using your derived road methodology, would they always have the exact same bet selection as you or is the methodology subjective enough that the two individuals could (or would) have different bet selections?

    Thanks

    Steven (AKA ehtelgaeb)
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2020
  5. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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  6. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Ok double post as if you go more than a couple of hours west of skippytown the internet is crap , and I’m not permitted to use Dreamtime as I’m only first gen skippy, back in the big den now with all the mob.
    To answer your question aka Steven , yes , if you follow the “ rules “ to a tee ... but no one can do that as their own personal biases/inferences will cut in at some stage. That is not necessarily a bad thing because they may pick up an extra win here and there or even for the whole session and I may be down a couple of units ( remember I only flat bet )
    The problem arises when they are wrong and they are down a couple of units and I’m up , then the emotional scars can kick in and the fellow player may start to doubt the process, then all sorts of other things kick in. But doubt on a short term loss they can revert to their OLD ways and no longer do the process that I have set out . I would say that on average if you are diligent to the rules and procedures WE would have 90-95% SAME bets as each other and the difference would be due to the change from trend to chop to micro trend to micro chop and vice versa in what ever order it starts to go.
    From my experience doing what I do I know the shoe mostly chops as a shoe/ session, ( as I play stadium and not dealer dealt shoes I have to be careful not to be miss leading as it is two completely different styles) cannot be all player nor all banker for 85 odd hands. Yes possibly but we can agree rare , yes I’ve seen x this and x that.I don’t or rather won’t enter any discussion about how many player or bank anyone has seen , that topic has been done to death on every thread , forum, bar , coffee shop on the planet etc .
    So at some point the play change and depending on how quickly you adapt can be the 5or 10% different between us two playing at the same time. Because I know it’s choppy by nature MY bias canntrip me up and I can sometimes play ping pong and lose 3 bets, then when in actuality it’s only a micro change and my fellow partner is not as quick to change and will catch the micro change , profit and that can be the % difference SOMETIMES.
    Due to ones own risk aversion or risk of ruin ( imho two very different things and I will not enter a discussion as it’s my personal opinion) our entry and or exit points may vary but at that point if one of us is not playing at the same time as the other then we cannot be actually considered to be playing at the same time, so the results will be different to a degree. The number of sessions I can accomplish in a day or for the month as per my thread may also be factor when we two players/partners tally up our end of year UNIT profit( note I said unit and not $ value) this can also impact on the partners selection criteria as memory of old habits can creep in . Etc.
    Hopefully some useful information if not sorry about that.Thanks for the enquirey Cheers
     
  7. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb Member

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    Thanks Mate!
     

  8. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Hey Steven, there are actually 3 derived road boards (Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig) along with your 2 main boards (Bead plate, Big Road) for a total of 5 boards to look at. I don't even bother to find out why those are named so, just google them to understand lol.
    Now to answer your question, it depends. Sometimes a trend is so obvious in 1 of those 3 derived road boards, AND IF both persons look at that EXACT same trend, then they WILL have the same BS.
    However, if each person happens to look at a different derived board (and they do contradict each other frequently), then they might come out with a different BS for a particular hand.
    Example: Many times you'd see 2 derived road boards with 2 long/good trends going on and at one point those 2 boards tell you to pick a bet (B/P) differently from the other. Now you have to choose which trend to go with (I normally stay out on those scenarios).

    --This is a topic that I've been wanting to write a more detailed post on-- because my recent success has been tied closely to BS based mainly of analyzing these 5 boards. Remember, I'm a trend player. The 5 boards, seems many, but serve me well because I can pick up a trend from any of those boards. Anyone interested?
    Cheers!
     
  9. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Steven, just want to add that the majority of trends will be "subjective" based on how a person is reading (ie believing) it.
    Unless it's an absolute perfect trend, different people can see the same trend differently and therefore make a different BS.
    This is where personal "preferred" trend reference comes into place. One has to choose and master certain trends that they believe in.
    --to be continued, if I end up writing a post about this topic--
     
  10. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb Member

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    And thank you too.
     
  11. CarloDarlo

    CarloDarlo Member

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    Play2Win,

    I've been testing a "similar" approach as of late and want to make sure I got what you were doing right.

    So your First go around you called a "redemeption" period you were playing with 25u br and 5u session br. With max return of 5u and most returns landing around -1,+1 range.

    Second "recent" go around you are on a fixed 100u BR with 10u at risk with 20u goal. (5x4) you mentioned breaking into "mini" session all on the same trip.

    You are doing a "unique" approach which you haven't disclosed and a "streak chasing" approach which is subjective to what the table is "delivering" you for results currently.

    So if someone came along and tried to replicate your system the hardest bit imho the most important is what do you bet and when do you bet it.

    I was just curious if i'm correct on the MM side of things. I have my own bet selection I'll test this on as yours in my opinion requires insane amount of table awareness of various trends and there continuity or what EV freaks would term. just plain LUCK.
     
  12. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    CarloDarlo, you've captured my thread info pretty well, showing that you've read and followed it thoroughly. Thank you for that.
    It is what I've hoped for since starting this thread: to share my experiences with others and have a productive/meaningful thread with positive and constructive conversations.
    -----
    Yes, you're right on my MMs. Even though I have different MM strategies depending on each trip goal and Plan of Attack for that trip, but overall you're right.
    Now it might seems "it requires insane amount of table awareness of various trends", but in reality it's not that complicated. It's just hard to write it out on my thought process when making certain BS.
    I'd summarize it into these steps:
    1) Have clear personal "preferred" trending patterns and master them (learn to look for them, discipline enough to "wait" for them...)
    2) MMs: depends on where you're at as a gambler (winning or losing for Lifetime/month/week/trip, your current comfort level) then develop a MM that works for you that's within your current comfort zone.
    3) Focus on what has worked repetitively for you in the past when you were winning, learn to replicate that.
    -----
    Now I don't even mind to show the "uniqueness" part of my game. It just that I never get to see someone who's serious to inquire and ask about it.
    It's not rocket science, just a personal style-of-play reference that has worked for me more times than not.
    Cheers!
     
  13. CarloDarlo

    CarloDarlo Member

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    Play2Win,

    Thank you for your reply. I got a couple question regarding your Positive Progression and if you use a negative progression at anytime?

    I noticed that you were using a positive progression once you obtained "X" amount of profits and based on profits currently obtained you would parlay higher values to reach your goal.

    I noticed your Parlay values are malleable due to most likely your addition of a strike rate. Example I keep hitting 3W IAR you would create a "progression" to exploit that strike rate you currently have.

    What I was also curious about and potentially missed was what if any progression are you utilizing on the downswings.

    You sit down with your 10u and immediately down to 5u left. Then what? Just keep playing hoping it swings or go bust and try again?

    So in essence is your progression only when you are winning. Once you are losing do you just play conservative trying to come back to 10u. like 1-1-1-1-1.


    I've been using your MM loosely to test a bet selection of mine I currently use with my own designed "labby" system.

    Given that this system does extremely well when "ahead" due to the positive progression. I'm going to create a Mixed system using my system Then using this system to parlay up to my goal once i'm break even - profit.
     
    Play2Win likes this.
  14. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    CarloDarlo, again very good questions.
    I. When I use positive progression:
    1) 60% of the time when I'm already up, want to push hard, "dare to win" here to achieve my Trip goal faster.
    Ex: If my trip goal is 40u, and when I'm up like 20u, I don't mind doing a 10u or even 20u bet.
    2) 30% of the time when I'm slightly down, and strike rate is good (2W-1L or better, or strong preferred hands appear).
    3) 10% of the time when I'm severely down, usually I'd pick 2-3 favorite hands (have to wait a long time for them to appear) then do back-2-back All-In hands.
    Notes: This is when I go busted or back to even and restart the Session with sufficient bankroll.
    Early on my playing days I'd spend hours and hours to bet small to get back to even, but at this point it doesn't worth my time anymore.
    I'd gather go busted and restart with a new set of units (20 units each session, my comfort level) because now I can afford to.
    II. When I use negative progression (dangerous territory):
    Same as above, depends on whether I'm up or down at that point. A big factor is I try hard to only do negative progression bets when Strike Rate is good. But at times, my "Gambler monkey" comes out and I also do it when Strike Rate is horrible, which almost always ended up getting me busted. Then it begs the question of whether I restock to play right after, or wait for another day. (Wait for another day is ALWAYS better).
    Cheers!
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2020

  15. Play2Win

    Play2Win Member

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    Howdy...
    Haven't been back to this thread in a while.
    Some updates:
    1. I have been back to casino quite often during the last 2 months, usually on weekends only.
    Some huge swings as far as units go, sometimes as many as 150-300 base unit swings per trip.
    2. For my next few trips I'll probably do some trip reports here. As maybe a play diary of some sort so I can reflect upon if needed.
    I'll attempt to get back to the basics to accumulate units steadily.
    The wild swings are fun and all, but in terms of MM and unit Win Goal, it's just too...WILD.
    It'll definitely make me reach my Win Goal as lot quicker, but also it CAN and DID go south quickly too. But as I find out, the time invested is still the same...I tend to do better in marathon sessions (after let game comes to me) like 5-6 hrs/session than a quick one.
    3. I'll also look to "learn" to be firm on capitalizing when opportunity presents itself. Doesn't make sense to protect Win too tight but then pressing hard when it's going bad.
    ------
    I'll have a two day session this coming weekend. Let's see how it goes...
     
  16. playerA

    playerA New Member

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    The people living for the long-run are the ones never getting any results. I have been a great Uston APC counter in Vegas and banned from every joint. I realised that when I was calculating the long-run, I would never be able to see it, dying long-term before the odds came in my favor.

    So what did I do? Being out of the box and not doing what most people do. That is the first part, Second part is ignoring fear, and stop listening to those knowing it all but got no money left in their pockets.

    In order for improvement we need to look to ourselves honestly without the fear of rejection. Well that is what people love to do the contrary in casinos working upon your ego's.

    So short story! I love people ❤️ being honest about being a failure for them to improve. It makes their story more acceptable.

    Life is stranger than fiction!

    Signing off....

    Stu
     
    Lungyeh likes this.
  17. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Bunch a hoag wash in the above post.
     
    soxfan likes this.
  18. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Just more al-relax retardations, hey hey.
     
  19. Phillip

    Phillip New Member

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    Hey 'Play2Win', hope you win win win this weekend.
    ..
     
  20. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Nice to see ND and soxfan continuing their Bromance.;)
     

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