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Roulette I've seen a new absurd claim that the gambler's fallacy isn't.....

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone, Oct 16, 2021.

  1. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    1. Probability rules. If you win, probability predicted that you could. If you lose, probability predicted that it was possible as well.

    2. The law of the third stuff. Binomial distribution predicts how data samples will likely be distributed. In short, some numbers will hit more than others, because there are more ways for some numbers to hit several times, and others not at all, rather than in a very limited way where each number can only hit once. HOWEVER...it's still possible for each number to hit, in order, exactly once, until every number has it. It's just very unlikely for anyone to observe it since there are a gazzillion other ways for the numbers to appear. The distribution will in no way tell you which numbers are likely to continue hitting and which ones will start hitting.

    3. You can't exploit the law of the third/binomial distribution and make money in the long run. The reason is because there's simply two too many numbers on the wheel in relation to the payout. The distribution of hits over various sample sizes proves this much.

    4. The same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.
     
  2. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    I agree with everything you wrote except that bolded statement. That's your OPINION. And you're entitled to express it.
     
  3. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Actually, I agree 100% with the boldened text from DSAA above. How could it? There is no such thing as magical math or magical prediction. Now they at times might appear to be predicting but that is just a natural case of coincidence. You can exploit coincidence and the appearance of prediction but only by guessing and hoping that your timing is good.
     
  4. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Sometimes we see things that we don't believe. It doesn't mean it's not true.
    Even when all the evidence points in one direction, the answer can be in the other direction.
    That is how we learn things and correct the mistakes of the past.

    If you'd like, you can look up science and math that was proven to be true but ended up
    being incorrect. It happens all the time, it's nothing incredible or amazing that something
    everyone believes (or taught) was right is in fact wrong.
    Or you can cling to it despite the evidence - that's willful ignorance but it's your choice.
     
    trellw24 likes this.
  5. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Sailors standing on the dock telling the others in three small ships that if they keep going west they are going to sail off the edge of the world is clear proof of that much.
     
  6. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It's a shame that so many things in life are just assumed to be correct when they aren't.

    I had made a post on FB a long time ago asking if you flew in a plane from the east coast
    to the west coast (US) what direction would you be going... everyone said West.
    I think 90% of scientists would even say West, everyone replied with the wrong answer.
    If someone who's brain works like mine says your actually going East the entire trip, I'm
    so obviously wrong right ? But I'm not. I don't mind being ridiculed by people who think
    they are right because they don't know any better.. all I can do it point out why they
    are wrong and then it's up to them. If you explain to them why they are wrong and they
    continue to believe what's wrong - there's no point in going any further with them.
    You can also do things that seem like riddles but are 100% accurate - people will argue
    all day that you are wrong just because they don't have the answer.
    Such as making a triangle with 3 90 degree angles which is "impossible" but isn't
    impossible at all, it's incredibly easy.... but I would be called out by the likes of Sir Anyone
    as being the ignorant one. People have been trained to think a certain way and getting
    someone to look beyond that is sometimes impossible.
     
    trellw24, thereddiamanthe and mr j like this.
  7. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    And they always bring up the "anything is possible" claim.
    All numbers could appear in order in 37 spins is "possible".
    So you ignore what is 99.999999999% probable and base your view
    on what is 0.000000001% probable when it statistically is impossible ?
    Nothing works that way in the world.
    The odds of that happening is so astronomical I can't even put it in this post.
    But to them "it could happen" lol.

    In the same post he states that it's probable that repeats will happen, but then
    also says it's nonsense when I say a number can't appear twice unless it's appeared
    once. Clearly a repeat will happen and it will be a number that has already appeared.
    Clearly a number that hasn't appeared yet can't be a repeat...... but it's not clear
    at all I suppose to people who don't think.
    So if the only repeat that can happen is from a number that has already appeared -
    it isn't 1 in 37 anymore - but that means thinking beyond 1 spin which they are unable to do.
     
    thereddiamanthe and mr j like this.

  8. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    When you support the results with data, it can no longer be called coincidence *or luck*.

    predictable.png

    To say that ALL of the matches here which are predictable - from random outcomes - is just a
    coincidence is nonsense.
     
    Denzie likes this.
  9. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    So wreck everything, For once in your life explain this until everyone can understand it. No more hints. Give examples and data. No more people asking you questions for weeks or months and still nothing concrete. You have a legend about you that you won't do that. You just want to go on and on with no explanation to the point that nobody has any more questions.

    How about spin by spin telemetry? I want to see the spin number, what was bet on, the amount bet, the bet result, and the spin result on a line for each spin. Typically you might get 350 spins in a day at a busy table on a weekend. So you don't need to go past 350 spins for your examples. From that your secret hints will become crystal clear.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  10. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I fully agree with that statement that probability rules .............. winning or lo sing .
     
  11. Denzie

    Denzie Active Member

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    I'm pretty sure he knows that. Just as we all do. But how to attack them is another story. I've been busy with repeaters for a long time ..seen all kinds of sessions. ( many have this issue and seem to fail. For sure when the repeats come late and we can't get in +) At this moment I'm well into profit coz the positive progression. Those nice sessions make up for those :banghead: slow/bad sessions ...( and common...you have them also)

    Flatbet i can't make it win. Negative progression is not an option for me. So the key is in the betselection vs the progression imo. Please correct me if im wrong. Just for example...the other day i was playing online at Immersive Roulette when #29 hits beyond hot. I've noticed and got on it....it hits 14 times in 200spins....no need to tell you how my br was going up......made a lot of new sessions br ....

    But im sure i still doing something wrong though.....thats why im here
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
  12. Denzie

    Denzie Active Member

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    A session like that makes up for many other sessions that didn't....
     
  13. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    If you're doing it right you can win flatbet with net positive edge. It wins as natural as the casinos win with house edge.
     
  14. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    But not in your case. Your claims are, well, kind of silly, and you have no math to support them.

    You have no way of knowing which numbers will repeat. You have no way of knowing whether a number will continue hitting or suddenly go cold. A hot number is no more likely to hit on the next spin than a cold number.

    -Sorry, just the facts.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2021

  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Simply look at the last 38 spins on any roulette wheel and you will have witnessed something astronomical. After all, what was the probability that those exact numbers would hit in the exact order in which they hit? That one pattern that you witnessed is just as rare as watching each number hit once in consecutive order. You just don't realize it because the logic is beyond your grasp.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2021
  16. Denzie

    Denzie Active Member

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    If you play only 1 number sure. But lets say you play every 2x to become a 3x.... now you get a pool of numbers. Are they all gonna hit ? Probably not. Some of them gonna hit ? For sure .....if you know whats gonna happen ....isn't logic to bet them ?

    Good morning from Belgium...coffee time
     
  17. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    You don't have to repeat your OPINION. No one object it's facts for YOU.
     
  18. daveylibra

    daveylibra Member

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    I can't think of an instance when maths has been proved wrong, can you??
     
  19. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    The facts are not for him, they are for all.
    Main problem is that peoples see results, but absolutelly not look for reasons and not want understan which reasons leads to which results.
    If plane fall down from sky and hundreeds peoples dead it fall not because is probability 1/20 000 000, so not because came time for that to happend !!!
    Reason was something other - like problems with engine, weather situattion or something other and teoretical - all that can be predicted.
    80 years back - that probability to fall was much higher, peoples created diagnostic methods , wear condittions researching methods etc and that was reason why planes start fall more rare...

    The same in roulette - are some reasons which direct effect why ball stoped in concrete number pocket. Simply to know and describe theese reasons are very hard.
    And because it is so hard, are peoples which want to look more smarts than others and start claim something what others not understand :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2021
  20. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Exactly.
    Now if you think about what you said you have made my argument for me. Are you capable of that thought ?
    I print out that list of 38 spins that just happened and I bet you that it won't repeat in that order.
    I win every time.
    Sure, the first number might match - the second even. I'd even give you the third number.
    At each and every spin we dive deeper and deeper into the impossible of the list repeating.
    I'm only using those past spins to win. You have debunked Gambler's Fallacy yourself.
    Your welcome.

    Sadly no. Everything you mentioned as an example are things that are NOT random.
    I see it every day, so does everyone.
    Predictions about weather, predictions about earthquakes, even predictions about a comet hitting the
    earth. (they say we are "overdue") All things based on data from PAST events being used to predict
    future ones. They are always wrong of course so science now says things like "In the next 200,000 years
    we can expect....."
    But regardless, none of these deal with random events and have no meaning when it comes to roulette.
    But thanks for trying to explain it within your grasp. I thought you were the smartest kid in the class ?
     

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