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Sports Betting KENTUCKY DERBY 2016/UPDATED/IMPROVED

Discussion in 'Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Forum' started by LarryS, May 3, 2016.

  1. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    I watched the post draw, a couple of comments from Gstevens and other analysts...not sure which one said what since the camera wasnt on them

    7-oscar nominated
    8-lani
    9-destin

    they said the 7 and 8 horse are in possibly bad shape because lani is unpredictable

    20- danzing candy-bad post for speed
    13-nyquist- they said he would rather be outside the speed....but he is inside.can hurt the trip
     
  2. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    correction 7 and 9 are subject to lani uncertainty
     
  3. appistappis

    appistappis Member

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    look up how much the takeout is in horseracing.....look up what breakage is. no serious player would have a chance show betting
     
  4. appistappis

    appistappis Member

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    with speed drawn outside of nyquist we could get some quick fractions and that would favour the closers....the track seemed very fast on tuesday and I'd be watching for any bias this week..
     
  5. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    Is it also possible that the speed on the outside of nyquist expend alot of energy to get to the front, and jockies slow it down, while the "off the pace horses" are happy just to save energy and hang close.

    There a a few deep closers that seem talented, where they would need some speed and a strung out field, But if the speed slows it down, the deep closers are dead...they might have to go 8 wide in a race that is already a longer distance.

    But if the speed gets to the front easy, then I agree even a deep closer has a chance. But from most derbys I have seen, because of the extra distance, the riders get conservative and try to conserve energy for the long stretch

    let me know what you think....because even if there is a speed bias or a closer bias, it all comes down to the tactics.

    my observations arent scientific, I have no stats regarding conservative jockies after their horse expends aot of energy going to the lead...maybe I am just making false assumptions

    And yes of course Show betting is a bad bet......Patrick is a big fan of it
     
  6. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    Also as i look at the form, Outwork in post 15, has been in only 4 races which is not good, plus doesnt get to the lead real easy in medium fields of 8-9. So i figure he isnt flying yo the front that easy from that post
    Danzing candy from post 20 seems to get to leads easier but it averages post positions of 2 or 3...this is a whole other animal getting to the front.

    They will get there i think, but both will probably be going backwards by the beginning of the far turn. This could lead to other horses trying to avoid contact, and a chance for a crazy horse to get in.

    so far my top 5 are....creator, destin, nyquist,mohayman, brodys cause--- subject to change.....still doing some research
     
  7. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    a case against Nyquist

    Yes he beat exaggerator the second choice 3 times, and he is undefeated. And 3-1 i quess is fair.
    However the last race he won by over 3 lengths to a horse that had just a maiden win under its belt.And in 3 of the remaining 6 wins, it was by less then a length. This can be a positive, where you can say he can tough out a contested race. Or you can say in the stretch he cant pull away.
    So if he cant pull away in shorter races, that gives a horse in the derby a chance to pull away..especially if they get a better trip.

    1980-1999, a 20 year period when the fave didnt win the KD. But the fave won the last 3 years. As i mentioned in the first post, that may have something to do with the point system. But still there is a case to be maid against nyquist even if he has a perfect trip.

    And the trip is a real issue with speed to his outside. Actually the trip and distance is an issue with everyone.
     

  8. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    Some past KD stats
    Since 1991 there have been 70 runners without a juvenile win- record 2-4-3 (winners were fusaichi pegassus and monarchos_

    Beyer figures-out of 24 races using beyer figures---7 were won with the top last race beyer
    and only 2 were won by a horse that hadnt broken 95 sometime in their career.

    since 1991 there have been 6 undefeated north american based runners that also competed as 2 year olds.....3 of 6 won, 2 ran 3rd, one failed to hit the board.

    since 1991 only 1 derby was won by a horse withjust one lifetime win. 48 others failed(4 ran 2nd)

    in the erra of aux gate, 39 races, pp1 is 1-0-3
    the last position in regular gate 14- winless in aux gate era(2 second and 3 third)
     
  9. appistappis

    appistappis Member

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    my advice to you guys is bet this for fun....its really not handicappable...ton of horses have a chance. there is no amount of stats that can help a closer who gets a bad trip or a speed horse who gets too much pressure.
     
  10. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    I will either try to win 3.20 on a show bet. or bet 630.00 on a trifecta wheel 7/11/11 horses

    i treat it like the lottery

    the only time of the year i bet horses anymore
     
  11. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    hey appi, I have a question thats more math based so youmight not know

    If i bet one trifecta with the actual horse numbers listed as follows

    1,2,3 with 4,5,6,7 with 8,9,10,11

    but what if I did the more conventional

    123 with 1234 with 1234......this is 18 dollars....is the one above also 18 dollars


    the reason I ask is that in number 2 example....there is no available 1-1-1 or 1-2-1 or 2-2-4 etc so I am noot charged for that....yet with the first example....there are no duplicate horse numbers...so all combinations are valid....there are no impossible combos...so shouldnt there be a difference in price? But I dont think there is....or is there.

    the trifecta calculators i use online dont differentiate between which horses are used so I assume any horse is woth the same in a trifecta.
     
  12. appistappis

    appistappis Member

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    48 bucks for your example....123 with 4567 is 12 times 4 more horses (891011) equals 48 bucks
     
  13. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    thanks
     
  14. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    My tri as follows...my one of 3 yearly horse racing bets.

    6/12/12 horses=660
    3,5,13,17,20,14/same +11.9.19.18.16.10/same 12

    good luck to everyone
     

  15. appistappis

    appistappis Member

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    trips are hard to predict but I like suddenbreaking news to be running the best at the end
     
  16. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    I respect your opinion as u are more knowledgeable for sure...with an avalanche of horses to its right....i will pass on that.
     
  17. OneArmedBandit

    OneArmedBandit Active Member

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    I wish those playing tomorrow the best of luck
     
  18. OneArmedBandit

    OneArmedBandit Active Member

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    I hope you guys cashed
     
  19. appistappis

    appistappis Member

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    the track really played to speed today....closers had zero chance...thought the five ran a huge race and the 2 was the only horse that could close at all...to make the day worse for me, a horse at woodbine that i had a chance to buy 10% won easily.
     
  20. LarryS

    LarryS Compulsive Liar Compulsive Liar

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    Appi, I always thought the more seasoned horse bettors actually sit out races on a particular card. Do you and they ever bet 12 races on a 12 card. I assumed if a seasoned bettor bet 12 races in a day, it would be split over 4-5 tracks.

    I cant imagine 12 races at one track would all be appealing.

    I know you concentrate on certain maiden races. Isnt that how the sharp bettors operate? They have their specialties, and parameters of races that they look for.
     

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