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Las Vegas Mickey Crimm's Expert Hotel Bargain Challenge

Discussion in 'Las Vegas Forum' started by redietz, May 5, 2023.

  1. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    The only advice an AP can give you on the games you play is don't play them if you don't want to lose money. The next best advice would be to play slow. The games you named are PERSISTENT STATE. That means the house advantage is exactly the same on every spin. So if the game has a 10% house advantage and it's $5 per spin then i.e., you are losing an average of 50 cents per spin.

    The house advantage is based on the line hits not paying at true odds. An easy slot to demonstrate how the house advantage works is the Hundred Or Nothing machine. It's a game where you either hit the red sevens or you hit nothing. Hitting the red seven's pays 100 for 1.

    The easy way to explain the house advantage on a 90% machine is the random number generator selects a number between 1 and 110. The number that triggers the red sevens is 50. All other numbers pay zero.

    So the sevens, when you hit them, will pay 100 for 1 but the odds of catching the sevens is 1 in 110. That's how the house edge works. You are not being payed off at true odds.

    V, the games you play work like this but there are more symbols involved, the math is a little more complicated but it's the same formula as the Hundred or Nothing machine. Those games are only going to return about 90 units for every 100 units wagered.

    Here's the red sevens machine:

     
    Last edited: May 18, 2023
  2. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    V, with the Double Diamond machine there is nothing on the screen to read. It's persistent state. Every spin is disadvantage.

    s-l500.jpg
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2023
  3. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    V, here's a game that can be strategized, Regal Riches. It's a VARIABLE STATE game. You can see the purple number on the right is at 71. That number starts at 30 and increases incrementally as you are making spins. Wild symbols are being banked for when you catch 10 free spins. The wilds will be distributed over the 10 spins. So at 71 you would average 7.1 wilds per spin on a screen where there are only 20 positions, whereas, if the number were on 30 you would average just 3 wilds per free spin.

    The game is at much higher payback when the number is on 71 than on 30. As the number increases the payback of the game increases until the number is reset back to 30.

    This is where knowledge of the game comes in. What is not shown on the screen but is buried up in the rules screen....is that when that purple number reaches 75 you are automatically awarded the 10 spins with 75 wilds distributed over those spins. Having done my homework I know that the 10 free spins is worth about 70 units.

    If you walk up and find the game with 71 purples already collected you are about 40 spins away from maxing it at 75. The cost is an average of about 15 units to win and average of 70 units.

    When the free spins are over the number will reset to 30 and the game will be back in negative mode so the AP will cash out and go on his way looking for another advantage play.

    It's all in knowing how to read the game.

    Beyond that, the ploppies play when the game is disadvantage, drive the game into advantage mode, and many will run out of credits (or cash out for whatever reason) and get up at that point. The AP then comes along, see's the game is in advantage mode, so sits down and spins it off.

    REGAL RICHES.jpg
     
  4. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    Here's a video of Regal. The guy in the video is not exactly right. He's playing a green at 72 which is way to low. It needs to be up around 85 to be advantage. Pay attention to him checking the numbers down on the pad. There are 5 bets levels to check.

     
  5. MrV

    MrV Well-Known Member

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    Occupation:
    attorney at law (retired)
    Location:
    Portland, Oregon
    Thanks Mickey

    The weird thing is..."variance."

    Although I choose to play negative expectation slots, I had a "lucky" period in 2021-22 where I kept winning; at one point I was up about ten grand from the starting point, but then, as always, "the worm turned."

    Recently slots have been cruel; so cruel that I am planning on focusing once again on craps.
     
  6. RobSinger

    RobSinger Active Member

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    What mickey and other AP's like him do with slots is considered too much work and overly complicated for the vast majority of people who plop down and play slots--which means they're either almost always losing, and/or they're inadvertently feeding the advantage slots with their losses for the slot AP's.

    V, if you enjoy playing slots then why not give this stuff a try? An added beauty is what happens on your slot club card. Slots accumulate points a lot faster than video poker or keno. You can only be playing at an advantage and almost always be winning, yet you can be racking up the points just as fast as someone playing the -EV slots. I don't know that casinos have come up with a counter to that yet?
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2023
  7. MrV

    MrV Well-Known Member

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    attorney at law (retired)
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    Not a bad idea Rob, but it IS a lot of work, yes?
     

  8. Gullywin

    Gullywin Member

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    India
    I appreciate your suggestion. Thanks :)
     
  9. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    The house always has the edge.
    You mean you do not play at all?
     
  10. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    The house does not always have the edge. My niche is finding and exploiting the cracks in their armor.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2023
  11. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    It's been about 3 weeks since redietz lost the challenge that he started. He said all I had to do was get a room at the Horseshoe for $50. He made no stipulations, just get the room for as cheap as $50. I showed him where I could get the room for free. Then all of a sudden Ditz came up with stipulations. That is, after the fact. To late, Ditz, you lost. I asked that the money be sent to his local rescue mission.

    He "lawyered up" with Mr. V to weasel out of the deal. V made typical double talk lawyer speak to help Ditz slither out of the deal. But no judge or arbitrator would side with Ditz. His challenge made no stipulations, period. Ditz lost. But even before I acted on the challenge I knew Ditz would never pay.
     
  12. coach belly

    coach belly Active Member

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    Everybody knew, his reputation is that he's a deadbeat.
     
  13. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    You said "$50", NOT comped. YOU LOSE!
     
  14. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    You're to late with that one. Ditz already used it. But the problem is I never said $50. Ditz said $50. But you know what he meant. He meant I couldn't get the room cheaper than he did. I can get it for free. If I had made the challenge I wouldn't get that tarnish on my chrome finish by not paying off.
     

  15. Franky McDanky

    Franky McDanky New Member

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    Are you going to be in Reno In June Mickey?
     
  16. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    Please share your findings.
    I can't even beat baccarat which has the lowest house edge.
     
  17. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    No plans to be in Reno.
     

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