Discussion in 'Slots Forum' started by Mickey Crimm, Sep 16, 2016.
wow, you get a lot more in social security in the u.s. than here in canada
BH, I don't know if you are aware of it but seniors have one hell of a safety net in this country. I can't remember the exact figure but I think it's only like 20% or 25% of Americans ever pay into a retirement system other than SS. And a huge percentage of Americans never advance beyond being a low wage worker. So they wind up with an SS check of no more than $800 per month.
How do old people survive on $800 a month. Guess what? You can thank your liberal lawmakers. The first thing they do is move into Section 8 housing, better known as low income housing. You should see these apartment buildings these days. It's not the projects. They are very nice facilities. And the seniors have their own housing separate from the welfare queens with kids.
What kind of rent are they paying? Just 30% of their SS check. And that includes electricity. The rest of it is payed by the feds. So a person drawing just $800 a month is paying only $240 a month in rent. And the person also qualifies for about $60 a month in food stamps, the government cheese, and all those other niceties.
And what happens to that same person when they get to old and decrepit to get around? They move into assisted living. And again, these are not old delapidated facilities. They are very modern. It costs them about 3/4ths of their SS check. The feds pay the rest.
So a person that never advanced beyond being a low wage worker, that never payed into a retirement system other than SS is living just as well as the person drawing $50,000 a year in retirement.
So everyone that studied and advanced up the economic ladder, and payed into a retirement system other than SS, the joke is on them, thanks to liberal lawmakers and the federal government.
I rest my case.
You rest your case on what?
I got in 15 plays yesterday. But the problem is giving this town only two weeks soak time before hitting it again means I'm working thinner edges than normal. Ten winning sessions for $252, 5 losing sessions for $262. One of the plays was Joker's Jackpot where I lost $76. So a net loss yesterday of $10. And I only have a net win of $88 for the trip.
I'm not sure about what everyone's situation is.
Every AP is different, no 2 are exactly the same. AP income drastically varies from barley surviving to making millions. It's no different than a small business. Think of it like a gift shop business. It's all about selling stuff, some gift shops might sell very similar things, some might sell only a few specific things they know well and specialize in. Some gift shops do very well some barley keep the lights on.
In AP even guys who are on the same team and know the same stuff oftentimes play various different stuff they enjoy on their own such as Blackjack. Perhaps someone is interested in running 100k coin in on VP to earn 2% in mail plus perks comps. Others might not want to mess with that for various reasons. Perhaps one person lives next to that particular casino.
Some Advantage players only know a few things to begin with.
There's AP's like KJ who specialize and focus on one thing like mid/low level counting. Someone might avoid regular card counting like the plague and focus on counting side bets.
There's AP's who do a couple of things, for example someone might count cards and play poker only. Someone might bet sports and play blackjack. Someone might play VP progressives and point multipliers. Someone might look for weak dealer opportunities and play VP on the side for mail. Someone might only go after higher limit card counting and front money . Someone might play mostly .25 VP trying to maintain a .5%-3% advantage. Someone might focus on big promotions with Someone might play poker and juicy must hits. Someone might travel looking for super good promotions. Someone might focus on looking for UX's, must hits and banking bonuses.
Some Advantage Players play anything and everything that they can find it doesn't matter as long as it's worthwhile doing.
Retirement? I haven't yet to meet a serious advantage player whose actually retired. I know guys in their late 80's who are monsters. AP keeps you sharp and on the go. Contrary to what people think AP is actually a very social thing for many. Even if you play for yourself you oftentimes make good friends and play next to each other on plays, share information, talk strategy share personal stuff and socialise. Most serious AP's it's a passion not work and they never want to retire. If you love fishing, Playing Pool, traveling, Boating, playing poker for fun, or just gaming for fun gambling all as a hobby, would you want to quit?
Assuming you can't do it anymore, well again, it's no different than owning a small business. Perhaps you invest in and teach someone to take over your spot. You can buy your own health insurance, you should save money, you can invest in other things like property, businesses stocks, you can get retirement or make a retirement plan. Most serious successful AP's will have enough cash to retire on by the time they have to call it quits.
Yes anything can happen, but that's true of any job or career. Many 9 to 5 jobs are not secure.Many businesses fail. Many AP's don't have to worry if they will lose their jobs. They lose plays however they can find more hopefully they already have multiple things going and know what's next. TBH oftentimes there's actually more going on than one can get to.
FYI I know of 2 cases where an AP from the late 80's 90's early 2000's who fell seriously ill and weren't long for living. They fell on hard times both in heath and financially. Many AP's came together and did was was needed to see them through the end. People offered their homes, money time and care. You would be surprised if you actually spent time and got to know many AP's and just how normal their lives really are. Obviously there's many different personalities and approaches to people have to their life and career.
my retirement plan might be moving to vegas and running plays for axel.
I got in 19 sessions today and did a little better. There were 10 winning sessios for $550 and 9 losing sessions for $195. So a net $355 for the day. So far I have a net earn of $443. That's pretty shitty.
So I'm averaging about $55 a day after expenses. LOL. But the good news is I got 3 plays today on a game that has been dead in the water to me for over three months. Its a game that all the progressive buildup got wiped out when the manufacturer installed new games on the machines. So that game is coming back. It should be back close to full swing on my next road trip. Its a keno game where free games, multipliers and extra draws keep increasing until you win them. I let the ploppies build it up before I jump in and play it off.
This trip isn't going to last much longer. I figure to be back home day after tomorrow.
When that time comes do I see myself wheeling into a casino in an electric wheelchair and an oxygen tank? I probably would try to pull something like that off. Beating the casinos out of money is fun no matter how old you get. But sooner or later I guess a guy would have to call it quits. I think I would prefer to just go out with a heart attack before I ever get into such bad shape.
Of course not. AP's don't work for casinos. They just beat them out of money. Like any other business man an AP has to buy their own health insurance and pay into an IRA if they want it. But employee's don't get that shit for free either. They have to work for it.
That's what most working stiffs do. Yeah, sure, they "love their jobs" but they can't wait to get to 62 years old so they can retire, draw social security, rental assistance, food stamps, government cheese and all that good stuff. Working stiffs talk about retirement like its some kind of holy grail. They can't wait to get there. The locals casinos in Vegas are filled with retirees who worked for 40 years just so they can retire and spend the rest of their lives in a casino. So what is an AP supposed to do? Retire? Go live in the country away from it all?
How about this scenario. A retired AP spies a golden opportunity to make some quick cash on a machine. But he is retired. So he say's to himself "Man, that's an easy play there. But I'm retired so I'm not going to pick that money off." It don't work like that.
If retirement is so great then why is Clint Eastwood still making movies in his eighties? Why is Sheldon Adelson still involved in his eighties? Warren Buffet? Why would someone run for President at the age of 69? There are countless other examples.
Only working stiffs talk about retirement as if it is some kind of holy grail.
I'll send you an application. I'm actually Looking for more help right now both in and out of state.
Depending on the situation and the right person. There's an opportunity for someone to relocate if needed (not to Vegas right now) where your rent and utilities are paid plus a salary and bonuses. As long as that person does their job properly and honestly we will guarantee an agreed upon number of months, even if things drastically change, even if things change and the person is working out good then everything will be done to get them onto something else.
I actually prefer someone who has a secondary fixed income or someone who works online with an open schedule or has a savings someone who's just looking to have something to do while making some extra money.
It's also a good opportunity for a winning low/mid level/ limit poker players.
I wouldn't want someone uprooting their entire life to do this.
I'm occasionally looking for help in Vegas as well, however there's usually enough people here to cover what's needed but I'll consider the right person who's interested.
If Anyone is seriously interested you can PM me over @ WOV. Please don't send me some long winded PM telling me how fast you perfectly play VP or how well you count cards and how smart you are.
This past Saturday I went up to a high variance $300 an hour play I have. I spent two days there. I got my ass kicked this time. I finished up a $1287 loser. I'm also out the hotel and gas bill. But thats okay. I've been working this play for several years. I hit the play about every month or so. I've crushed them in the long run. Win, lose or draw I pull up after two days with them. I have the image of a come and go gambler.
I took a few pictures. Here's one of the Rocky Mountain Front just south of the Blackfeet Indian Reservation. This picture taken Saturday before the first snow of the season. Years ago this range had the biggest buffalo herd in the world.
This is a picture of Hwy. 2 inside Glacier National Park. The first snow of the season.
The Blackfeet Nation. Yesterday, Columbus Day, we were under whiteout conditions. The town of Browning, the center of the Blackfeet Nation is behind the sign but can't be seen because of the whiteout.
When I walk into a slot parlor there are a dozen games I have to check to see if there is a short term advantage there, left by a ploppie. I'll explain one of those games but will not divulge the name or what kind of game it is.
The game has a 90% overall return. So 65% of the payback is in the line pays and 25% is in the bonus round. At reset it takes 3 clicks to get to the bonus round. You will average one click every 36 games, so the bonus round is on a 108 game cycle.
It's nickel denom and you can bet anywhere from 1 to 40 coins. So betting $2 a spin you will run an average $216 wager to get to the bonus round. Taking a 35% drop means the cost to get there is about $76. The average bonus will be $54 (25%). The $22 difference on a $216 wager means a house edge of 10%.
This game has what designers call a "static bonus." When you go into the bonus round a bunch of tiles appear. You get to pick 3 of them and their is a monetary award behind each one. In the case above the average pick is worth $18 (54/3).
I'm getting a notice to reboot my computer for some reason. I'll finish this in the next post.
Okay, back to the static bonuses. Basically, this means that the monetary awards in the bonus round are based off of exactly how many coins were bet when each click was made. If a person makes a click with a 40 coin bet it will lock in $18 worth of bonus. Make 3 clicks and the bonus round is worth $54. Now if a person makes a click betting 40 coins then lowers the bet to 20 coins and makes the next two clicks, the bonus round will be worth $18 + $9 + $9 or $36.
I play this game off when I find it where there have been either one or two clicks made. The best case scenario is I find one where the person was betting 40 coins and made two clicks then walked away. But I never know how many coins were bet when each click was made.
So if a player was bettting 40 coins and locked in two clicks then there is $36 worth of bonus sitting there. I spin the play off betting just one nickel at a time. I average having to make 36 spins to get to the bonus round. That's a $1.80 wager. I get dropped for 35%. That's a cost of 63 cents. When I make the last click it only generates 45 cents towards the bonus. So there is an average $36.45 worth of bonus waiting for me there.
My cost is 63 cents, the bonus is worth $36.45. Thats a return on investment of about 5800%. Like I said, I never know what the person was betting when they locked in the clicks. But I average about a $15 win per play. And the play only takes a few minutes.
On a good day I might get a dozen plays.
There is a thread over on WoV called Video Keno Scouting Guide. Caveman Keno has been discussed. The Wizard has a Caveman Keno calculator but it doesn't give some of the frequencies people are interested in. RS put up a graph for a 4-spot in Caveman Keno wanting to know some of the frequencies. There are to many frequencies in the graph for me to work on in a timely manner....but I only concern myself with the paying frequencies anyway.
In the Caveman Keno 4-spot there are three machine picks called eggs that are part of the game. Catch 2 of the eggs along with a pay in your 4-spot and you are awarded 4X the regular pay. Catch 3 eggs along with a pay in your 4-spot and you are awarded 8X the regular pay. At least that's the way I think Caveman Keno works. I'm not that familiar with the game.
You have to look at it like it is a 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. Hitting all 3 eggs plus the solid 4 has the exact same frequency as a 7-spot, 40,979.3, which you can get off of any online keno calculator. It gets more complicated from here.
The frequency of a 6 out of 7 is 1366. But there are 7 ways that the 6 out of 7 can appear in your numbers. They are not all created equal as far as payouts go. Of the 7 ways, 3 of those ways will be hitting all 3 eggs and 3 out of 4 in the 4-spot. This will be awarded an 8X multiplier. And 4 of the ways will be hitting 2 out of 3 eggs along with hitting the solid 4-spot. I usually assign letters to the numbers to get an idea of what it looks like:
An ABCDEF, ABCDEG, ABCDFG, ABCEFG combinations get the 8X multiplier.
the ABDEFG. ACDEFG,ACDEFG combinations get the 4X multiplier.
More on this subject later....
RE: Caveman Keno
The frequency of a 6 out of 7 is 1366 and their are seven ways it can appear in your numbers. Another way to look at it is at least one of the seven numbers will be blank.
To get the frequency of the combinations that will get the 8X multiplier you multiply 1366 X 7 to get 9562, then divide 9562 by 4 to get the frequency of 2390.5.
To get the frequency of the combinations that will get the 4X multiplier you multiply 1366 X 7 to get 9562 then divide 9562 by 3 to get 3187.3333.
This is the formula used to calculate all of the pays in Caveman Keno. But one really doesn't have to do that because the Wizard of Odds has a Caveman Keno calculator. But in the case of RS, someone who wants to know the frequencies in the game, this is the way you do it.
LOL! Blackhole you are lucky your name isn't in red this morning. You are definitely on Shack's shitlist. But it is commendable that you say what you want to say regardless of the consequences. You can definitely bet that BBB is watching you too.
I personally don't think Shack is a failed AP. I just think he failed to AP. In other words, I think he was making enough money on his site for quite awhile and just didn't put in the time in the trenches. It might be that he considers what AP's like I do to be below his dignity.
But if that's his house on google maps then he is definitely not living in the ghetto. And his kids have always gone to private school. I think the donation thing may have been a bad decision as far as his reputation went. He should have just charged a subscription fee to the forum like BJ21 does.
If you think he doesn't know his stuff then stay away from the Half Point Parlay Cards thread and don't make the money that others have been making off him. He has been doing this for a couple of years now. He gives his free analysis every week. It's golden. Last weekend, if you would have followed his advice you probably would have cashed 50 or 60 times your investment.
He's giving this information off for free to everyone....even his enemies.
People have known about and have been betting + ev 1/2 parlay cards for a long time. Before he added it. I was backed off early 2000 from multiple places. I told him be careful at Rampart they were quick to react. It was actually difficult to get action in for a while and it wasn't worth it. He's inspired people with solid data and makes it easy for even the blind.
It's actually Very disappointing he's just handing the information out free and posted a formula for the casinos to see that it actually works and why and how. posting up the exact picks is terrible for everybody. I think people should have to figure it out themselves.
They have already changed the odds at many places. Eventually it's going to be difficult. Luckily we are doing some of it differently so there's more options even on crappy weeks and running hot, but its more work. Now people are even exposing betting amounts patterns and locations. IT SUCKS BALLS.
I just watched the Fox Five, Kimberly, Greg, Eric, Dana and Juan take a baccarat lesson at the MGM. Talk about a bunch of rookies. I'm still LMAO.
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