1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Roulette More on that so called Fallacy.

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by TurboGenius, Jan 4, 2019.

  1. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,040
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    You have just successfully described wishful thinking.
     
  2. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,040
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    After an interval of 11 it could go right back to another 207. You are illustrating gamblers fallacy and calling it predictability. You are clearly stating that something is due.
     
  3. Benas

    Benas Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2018
    Likes:
    156
    Occupation:
    Looking for peoples who play better...
    Location:
    Ania,PL
    Ok, one time can be simply success, but if you will win three times in a row that will not be success.
    But I can say you other - I met 7 or maybe more peoples from forums and played both on the same wheel. they all were like absolute winners in forums and 6 of them lost, won only 1 and he won simply by martingale... so can also easy lost...
     
  4. Bozidar

    Bozidar Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2018
    Likes:
    16
    Location:
    Serbia
    Turbo,

    I completely agree with your math and your logic.

    But, the main problem and the key question is when the avarege of 37 will come?

    In your equations you set in 8 - 10 hits. Then the equations completely make sense — but what if the average of 37 comes after 20th spins? We could easily have many 40s - 60s gaps before under-average start hitting. Or we could have nineteen 37 spin gaps after the 200 gap and will still be quite close to the average?
     
  5. Bozidar

    Bozidar Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2018
    Likes:
    16
    Location:
    Serbia
    I just tried to flat bet the last spun number (spin 196) until it reached avg. of 40, after it hit 25 more times. It took 1800 spins, house edge -13.7%.

    When you think about it deeper, the premise of this thread is that you should play the first coldest numbers (let's say numbers which appear after spin 74) as they'll start hitting above expected, but it looks they're not. They can simply appear many times just after 37 spins and the avg. will be there. (Not to mention 1:35 payout.)

    What are you comments on this Turbo?
     
  6. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,080
    +Worried about the house edge ? Stay away from casinos . Simple as that .



    ND.
     
  7. Bozidar

    Bozidar Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2018
    Likes:
    16
    Location:
    Serbia
    It's all about the edge Nathan. Either yours or casinos. Instead of counting chips, worry about the edge, as it's gonna tell you whether you're a winner or a loser, over the long run :)

    Personally, I don't care about it at all on a game basis. What I care about is having the edge over the casinos in the long run, so even if a bad luck strikes I know I'm the winner :)
     

  8. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,080
    Please describe how you achieve aan edge over the casino .That would be interesting .


    Looking forward to your explanation how to beat the house edge .



    ND
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019
  9. Bozidar

    Bozidar Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2018
    Likes:
    16
    Location:
    Serbia
    That's not a topic of this thread :) All I see here is that you're not trying to learn anything, but rather attack, insult and wait for the final solution. Change your attitude and maybe you'll learn something from Turbo, maybe even me :)
     
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Turbo's math is firmly rooted in the gambler's fallacy.

    Numbers are never due to hit, even if they haven't hit in 300 spins. Numbers will move towards their predicted hit ratios as spin samples grow larger...even though the number of hits below break even grows larger and larger.
     
    gizmotron and Nathan Detroit like this.
  11. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,080
    Caleb.




    Thanks
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  12. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    A number could fall 10, 20, or a gazillion hits below the other numbers on the wheel but still appear to regress towards the mean without ever making up for the missing hits, and still have a hit frequency of 1 in 37. All that's needed is a larger and larger and larger and larger spin sample.
     
  13. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    The last unhit number will never be the longest sleeping number after it appeared for the first time, fact!

    Any number, any location need and will correct itself to his average point, fact.

    This number or location when it starts to appear will go into that direction over time, fact. you will never see the spin gaps between appearing for the first time and performing below average increase and keep imcreasing! it will, i repeat, it will rerurn to its average point! fact.

    if you can't profit from this knowledge, please stop playing roulette and start playing blackjack or something else.

    you can run millions of trials, the results as i described above will always be the same, fact.

    but hey, i didn't play enough spins now did i?
     
  14. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    just a small example (40 sessions) :)
    of it playing lines. But again, you will all say that i didn't play enough spins.
    I can go on playing more and more sessions, the results will stay the same.
    A steady increasing line upward!
    But i understand, it's all hocus pocus.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019

  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Sorry, but numbers are never due to catch back up. That's the gambler's fallacy.
     
  16. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    And yet, they do everytime. Because if they didn't, there isn't a average, it just wouldn't excist.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
    TurboGenius likes this.
  17. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    No matter how many trials you do, and i'm sure turbo explained it also, all numbers, any location will return to their average point given enough spins. they just do.
    you can't say that they don't. it is something that is due. And playing it the right way, you can and will profit from this knowledge everytime. Everyday, every week, every month, every year.
    Winning from roulette is easy, once you stop thinking that the only way to get 2 is 1+1.
    there are many ways to get the result you want, but you won't if you stay with the thought that random can't beat random. Do you know why random can be beaten? i will give you the awnser; Because it's random! here you will find all the awnsers you need to win everytime you sit down and play. nothing matters, only present and future spins.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  18. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    i don't wanna sound rude, but you all think to hard and to difficult. there are many ways to win this game, but you need to make random work for you, not against you. Once you all can make this happen, you won't lose again.
    Why do i sound like turbo? i know, because he has teached us so many things over the past 10 years, but only a few have payed attention :)
     
  19. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    Annother 10 sessions down the drain, pfff why do i keep winning, i don't want too! lol
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  20. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2017
    Likes:
    326
    Location:
    Mars
    Jekhb1976, are you not Elvis from RF? I thought you already had an account here also, why did you create another one?.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019

Share This Page