Roulette More on that so called Fallacy.

Let’s please stop spamming and see what are Turbo’s comments on this, as it’s the key concern of what Turbo has said in the first post of this thread.

Let’s give Turbo a chance to teach us something, rather than to spam and act as clowns quoting Turbo’s words.

 

Hi jekhb1976,

Can i send you a PM?

 

hi bago, yes that's correct. well not elvis, only using his avatar. i created a new one, because i didn't remember my acount details.

 

sure

 

Ok Elvis, so if I remember well, you claimed Turbo's hot repeater system was the HolyGrail and now you changed your mind, playing the coldest Line section is the HolyGrail. You tell me when you decide for good what is the way to go so that nothing can go wrong in the Casino

Best Regards.

 

House edge is like death lurking away there in the background.
One of these days it's going to come up and introduce itself and say ''excuse me sir, I do believe I was trying to catch up with you!''
Happy new year!

 

I appreciate the comment and "opinions" stated and will try to answer everyone individually as well.

I just worked up this chart - perhaps it's better to visualize this way


Now to the player, who has to win at a better rate than 35 to 1 in order to profit -
where the blue line rises toward the green (average) is the number hitting better
than it's expected to. It showed after 171 spins and then worked it's way up to meet
the average until (given enough spins) the two lines will run with one another.
It's how averages are made. If you placed all of the numbers on the table on the chart,
they would begin all over at various places but would all work their way towards
the green line over time. That's how it works - even with "random", it's predictable.
The cold number WILL become a hot number (Bago). We are playing the hot number
here.... maybe this will clear that up, maybe it won't.
From spin 245 to spin 430 - #18 is almost the hottest number on the table isn't it ?
A player would have made a killing on it - and why ? Because it has no choice other
than to become hot in order to reach the green line (which we all know as fact is the
average and isn't disputed). Predictable and "Due" - Hence this Fallacy doesn't exist.
We have an expected outcome.

=======================

A different analogy would be the lottery.
Let's take MegaMillions. You have a 1 in 259 million chance of winning and
everyone who plays has the same odds.
A drawing happens and no one wins. (exactly the same as 37 spins appearing and a number
doesn't show)
Next drawing, no one wins.. 10 drawings and no one wins (370 spins and the number
doesn't appear for roulette)
Now most people will begin to pay attention - why ? Because we know the math says that on average there
will be a winner for every 259 million tickets sold and we are 10 times beyond that.
The next week a winner !
The week after that, 4 winners in one drawing !
The week after that, no winners.
The week after that, 3 winners

Maybe no one sees what's happening, but there should be 1 winner per 259 million sold
tickets - all of the weeks with NO winner means that there HAS to be multiple winners
on other weeks or else there are no averages/there are no odds (and there is).
This all gets into Standard Deviation and I'm avoiding that as the average reader wants
it explained in a way that is simple.

Random and roulette spins are no different, it's not (again) a Fallacy to expect
to win multiple times on the same number that hasn't appeared for 7,8,9 cycles of spins.

I completely understand the comments ie. "Maybe it just showed 10 times before you sat
down to play !" and I'll explain this in another thread.

 

Here is the chart if flat betting was used on #18 -
Clearly it can be seen hitting well above average to reach the "average" expected, the player
makes the profit. (purple line) Once the average is reached it begins to perform like it should, up and down
with no benefit in playing it.

 

I see the majority here don't even know how to test a "system." So, let me help you with that so we can keep talking about grails (multiple obviously lol.)

Each game has its own bankroll, whether you set it or not. Either it's your entire bankroll, or you set a certain percentage of your bankroll.
So, when your bankroll is gone — the game you're playing is over. Whether you have a system which surely wins (the grail) or not determines a ratio of total bankroll : game bankroll over time.

Let's say you deposit $1000 and decide to play sessions with 10% of your total bankroll. Your initial ratio is $1000 : $100 = 10. 10 sessions in future, you won 6 and lost 4 sessions. Your total bankroll is $1200. So, the ratio is $1200:$100 = 12. Not bad, but means nothing if a casino has the edge, as the overtime you'll lose more sessions than you win and your ratio will start heading toward 0

To understand why this matter, let's see what Jakhob did wrong, and why he was bragging without any results. On Roulette Simulator, the bankroll for each game is 3000 units. He played 20 sessions, won all of them, but gosh — he only won 400 units or so. When the edge starts knocking, one losing session will wipe all his I-have-the-grail winnings and he'll stop posting fancy charts.

It looks he win 20 units per game, and he'll need 130 more winning sessions just to cover one potential loss. And he might win 200 more sessions, one losing session will left him with less money than he needs for one game bankroll.

Turbo proved his grail right — he won hundreds of game bankrolls — so even if bad luck starts kicking in, he'll be way way ahead. That's why I believe he has the grail. But he's not right about what he wrote in this thread, as you never know how many hits a number needs to get an avg. of 37. If you could know it's 10, it'll be easy. But as I've shown, it can easily go for 25 hits before the average of 37 comes

 

I was writing my above post before Turbo posted his, so let me take a look before I pull the word of him not being right on this one

 

no you can't profit from it because numbers will return to their average or very close to their only after a great number of spins

so, if red has come 8 times in a row and you now believe black is due:

black will come close to it's true % only after hundreds or perhaps thousands of spins

that great no. of spins can easily absorb the greater no. of reds coming in a very short sequence

if you bet on black your 8 red spins could easily be accounted for by coming 5,000 times red, 5,010 times black and 350 times green

you cannot profit from the short term outlier

 

It clearly makes sense, especially on this particular case. But after the first hit at spin ~180, the average came in relatively short span — in around 550 spins.

But what if its average's slowly heading toward 37? Then we could have 25 gaps of average 38 spins — the total average will be damn close to 37, but we'll lose as the payout of 1:35 is less than the average of 38.

I'll play some sessions and post the charts so I can visualize this better than with words.

 

It clearly makes sense, especially on this particular case. But after the first hit at spin around 180, the average came in relatively short span - in around 550 spins.

But what if its average's slowly heading toward 37? Then we could have 25 gaps of average 38 spins - the total average will be damn close to 37, but we'll lose as the payout of 1:35 is less than the average of 38.

I'll play some sessions and post the charts so I can visualize this better than with words.

 

And everyone wonders why turbo is tired of explaining

 

by the way, im not bragging. i know i can't lose, and therefore i haven't. wonder who said that before.

 

what i don't understand is why you all don't grasp that i dont't play cold numbers! i only play a number once it shows up. the line thing was only a demostration. i can make these charts with every location on the table. the only difference is each location has different session lenght, but it's all the same.
i don't need to play 200 sessions to show i'm right or not. because i know how the chart will look like after 200 sessions. a steady upward line. And no, i don't play any numbers/locations when it's average point is reached. i'm done long before that.
And no, i can't lose. i make a steady income everyday without too much work. believe it or not, i haven't lost in a long, long time. thanks to only one person.

 

The problem with most of you is that you are looking wich numbers came up before you. i don't know who many times people have to say that it doesn't matter if number 10 hitted 25 times in the past 100 spins. you're session starts with the first number that falls as soon as you sit down. and all the numbers after that for as long as you are playing.
this is the only imortant thing to know when you start. present and future spins matter, past spins mean nothing.

 

Hi Turbo,

I see a divergence here. You claimed the HolyGrail didn't need to look at past spins (sit at the table and start with the first spin). Now you are going back in time 15 years ago with the Min Interval Strategy which consists in looking at past spins and not a few! lol. It was tested, gave good results for quite a while (around 300K spins) but then failed for the reason we all know. In the short term you are unlikely to experience a session where your big interval will need a lot of spins after your first bet on it to reach the average, but given enough spins, you will experience sessions that result in a big loss. Noone is debating the fact that each locations of the betting table will reach their respective statistical averages, BUT THIS INFORMATION cannot be exploited and cannot give the player an edge because even the Coldest number (biggest interval) can take a while to reach its average and when it happens you won't be in profit because you are betting each spin don't you?.

 

Elvis, you are the king of the contradiction, look at this post and now you are explaining you sit down at the table and don't look at past spins... Make up your mind or seek a psychiatrist if you are unable to do so.

 

Elvis you sit down at the table, first spin: number 1 which belongs to the line 1-6 so you bet on it you say, but why, since it already reached its average (appearing 1 in 6 spins). If you don't use past spins then you HAVE TO use some sort of voodoo to know for a fact that line 1-6 was a sleeping line that is waking up!. Do you analyse the behaviour of the ball? When the ball falls from the track and goes directly to the pocket number without bouncing the wheel is sending you a message that it is a hot number?. Thanks for the laugh.