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Baccarat My way of betting?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Richie, Dec 24, 2023.

  1. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    100,000 hands, 8 decks,

    PP bet B = +53.7%
    PPPPP = bet P +55..17%
    BBBBB= bet B +55.49%
    PBPBP = bet B +52.45%
    BPBPB = bet P +52.07%

    Thoughts?
    @soxfan ..Right track?
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2023
  2. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Do you have profit numbers or long losing streaks for either of these scenarios?

    Impressive!
     
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  3. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    Was a maths guy who ran the tests a few years ago and published on youtube. Can't remember his channel, just noted in my records and ran with it. If it comes to me I'll list it.
    Admittedly his agenda was to publish a BOT app for Bacc, but looking in into his results showed a +eV. I played this live, and yes , it's a grind, looking at hundreds of shoes, but worked out postive eventually.
    I'm thinking you need a a BR of 200 and be prepared for some weeks at negative/be but eventually +. Has worked for me so far, but we all know how this works out in the end. Might be something there..
     
  4. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    Ps flat bet only
     
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  5. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    That’s not bad. I would use a plateau like money management strategy to make that work.
     
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  6. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    Hi cps10.
    Firstly. I've bee an observer on this forum for years before my first posts and to be honest I did follow your posts, very inciteful. I particularly liked your MM and your willingness to share your knowledge, so here's a bit I know, but beware it may be the same old crap, just trying to help.
    looking back, I've found a couple of old vids:
    This is what I have for Bacc, but look into his multiple other vids on the channel, I think he may be onto something PS I Don't advocate the bloody buy my app shit lol:


    Yes, the old questions were asked...RNG? No. Simulated real decks. * decks, yes, yes. etc.
    Anyway. seems @soxfan , may be correct. Looks like I owe him an apology. The question is, how many people are prepared to grind out 8 hours/6 days per week?
     
  7. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    Interested in your plateau money management. How do you see it? PS Max DD of 190u (ultra max) but allow -300 for ultimate safety
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2023
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  8. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I take a best of three or five approach almost like a delayed Oscar’s Grind.

    If you win the first bet you start over (1u). If you lost the first bet and win the second bet, start over. But say you lose 2 then win 1 then lose 1, you will be going to the next level AFTER your fifth bet win or lose (for the best of 5 approach).

    That is level 1. If in that example you win that fifth bet, then you have lost 3 and won 2 for a net loss of 1. Then you move up to 2-unit bets.

    IF you lose 3 bets on that level, move to level 3 right away. Don’t wait for the 5 bets total. Sure you may win a couple more at the 2-unit level but we want to recover faster.

    If at any time you are ahead 1 unit, it’s time to move back to level 1.

    I hope this makes sense. Let me try and give an example:

    W +1 reset
    L -1
    L -1 (-2 overall this series)
    W +1 (-1 overall this series)
    L -1 (-2 overall this series)
    W +1 (-1 overall this series)

    As I mentioned before on Level 1, you must use all five bets. Even if you lose your first three, play out the last two since these are your lowest bets. Any level beyond 1, you play until there are three losses or a net profit overall to reset to Level 1.

    Continuing this series:

    Move to level 2:

    L -2 (-3 overall this series)
    L -2 (-5 overall this series)
    W +2 (-3 overall this series)
    L -2 (-5 overall this series)

    You have now lost three bets on Level 2 so you stop there and move to Level 3:

    W +3 (-2 overall this series)
    W +3 (+1 overall this series)

    You have now made a profit for this series and you reset to Level 1. For this session, you have won 2 units which is always nice!

    Yes I have seen Level 6 bets before and I’ve made my way out of it but that certainly is a grind. But if you are going n a situation where you are 50%+, this management can give you a fighting chance to win every time. It’s conservative but definitely powerful when you’ve gotten behind and you finally hit that nice winning run.

    Cheers!
     
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  9. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    That's less than 1400 shoes. Misleading. I don't think he had enough data.

    I have over 4000 shoes (still not enough). I will run the same pattern setups for you later today to give you another perspective. I will post the results here
     
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  10. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Richie, here you are. I am going to assume that these patterns are all new formations and not continuations.

    B PP bet B 50.57% wins
    B PPPPP bet P 48.8% wins
    P BBBBB bet B 50.94% wins
    P PBPBP bet B 49.53% wins
    B BPBPB bet P 49.39% wins
     
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  11. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Itlr there's no one single possibility in the world that any BP pattern will provide the P as the best bet, obviously in the short and sometimes in the intermediate terms P seems to be more profitable than B.

    Anyway even in the relatively short run when we take into account (for example) 5 different patterns, it's way unlikely that most (3 or more out of 5) of them consider P as the best bet.

    According to several pc simulations and, more importantly, to our live data samples, Banker takes a more "uniform" lead after a five (PPPPP) or six (PPPPPP) streak: now a single B bet approaches the old 51.3% percentage where B bets are EV+.
    But even this very diluted (and boring) betting strategy might encounter unfavourable harsh situations: we have registered many consecutive P streaks not stopping at 5 or 6.

    as.
     
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  12. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    Thanks @cps10 for sharing that. I used to run a 1x7, 2x7, 3x7, 4x7 etc up to level 7. A bit of a OG but more conservative. Can sit at higher levels for quite a while wishing I'd never placed the 1st bet, but all the name of the game as they say lol.
    Your levels seem quicker to come back round into +. I'll look into it, thanks

    Thankyou @fathead for running your shoes. I agree, the original sample was far too low. I'm alos in the short term ATM and seemed to have been lucky to be on the correct side of the bell curve. Looking at your results, by cutting out any P bets and only betting B after a series of P seems to be mildly +ev. I suppose it would work out at maybe a couple of hundred units per several thousand shoes?

    Thanks for your input @asymbacguy It does look, as you say to be slightly +ev. I suppose optimal betting would be after 3 or 4 P's bet B once. The % increase with say waiting for between 5,6 and upwards P's would probably taper off % wise.
     
  13. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It should be well-known by now that you need at least a 51.3% strike rate on Banker to profit. And after one thousand wagers as such you can make enough money to buy a cup of coffee.
     
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  14. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    I agree. I've just been lucky in the short term with bacc, but I fully expect it to come back towards expectation with each session played.
     

  15. Jake0628

    Jake0628 Member

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    @fathead How many shoes/hands do consider a good sample size?
     
  16. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    I would say look at the actual number of bets placed instead of shoes.

    For example, B PPPPP bet B, flat betting Banker once after a new series of five Players wins at 51.8% after commission on the 4062 live shoes. But you only place 4159 bets, so about one bet per shoe. Is that valid? I would say it is worth further testing but 4062 shoes is not enough.

    Now if you are betting every hand (or close to it) 4062 shoes will give you well over 250,000 bets so yes, this is probably valid flat betting. This is assuming that you have not made an error in your code or testing (which I have seen several times when testing big winners sent to me for a double check).
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
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  17. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    @fathead. Yup. All we need to 10 or 15 more bets like that one and this came wouldn't even exist.
     
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  18. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Is there ever a big enough sample size? I think not. Especially with an infinite enough combinations there’s no exact solution. Go with a method and hope it works with the correct money management strategy. If not, move to something different.
     
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  19. Jake0628

    Jake0628 Member

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    I've been trying something where I went thru 10,000 shoes but only played 525 hands of those. Hit at about 59%. Should probably get more of a "play" sample size to see if it sticks...
     
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  20. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    Maybe try a different set of shoes? I find the opposite. I found a higher hit rate. Just saying, got no beef...
    Looks like above 52% ev
     

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