Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

All is fair in love and war, would you agree?

Your waiting for -20 is nothing more than gambler's Fallacy. Look it up. It's when something is due to happen because of something else that is happening. You think that the bad is out of the way and so you will get more positive results just because you waited until the -20 trigger.

But let's leave that aside. Oscar's Grind has been investigated many many times over the past two decades and it has been found to be worthless.

Knowing that you make things up I would suspect that your claims of grandeur are lies also.

It doesn't matter though because you flip out any time a dog almost gets hit by a car.

 

Well, I think the problem is just the martingale in general. But to answer the question in the way you really wanted addresses... I don’t know. I don’t consider myself a master of the martingale and haven’t put in any effort to be one.

With that said, and even aside from me not advocating it. I think in theory it is the perfect system second to the grand martingale.

I’ll always entertain concepts that use the Marty, because I love how fast it recoups and wins. I just haven’t ever figured out a way to make it work long-term. I believe that if there is a way, then it’s based on a trigger, even though whatever trigger you use systematically should keep the mathematical odds the same. Which is unfortunate because that tells me no bet selection would be better than just starting at bank anywhere and only betting bank. Going deeper into the theory, I’d love to believe that taking out the systematic approach and somehow basing it off of a random approach would work, but I think you’re ultimately going to just come up with the same results. Without an infinite bankroll and a max table limit, I don’t know how you can make martingale survive long-term.

If my main priority and goal in life was to go down this path though, I think the secret would be in money management. Similar to my OG method. But it seems trickier to overcome the house advantage with a martingale and proper money management than by using OG.

OG, like martingale will win long term with an infinite bankroll and no table limit betting on banker only. But in the real world, it is conservative enough that table limits don’t have to be an issue.

You’ve compared OG to an 11 step martingale, but the only similarity they have in my opinion is that they require a similar sized bankroll. However, a 2,000 unit OG will be way more successful than an 11 step martingale in the long run.

By comparing the two, by using the 11 step Marty versus OG betting banker every hand, OG never failed. Marty would have failed 5 times.

If I were to go over the last six mo this, OG never failed. Marty would have busted a few hundred times.

it’s not a fair comparison. And while I’m not racking up the wins from Marty and keeping a running tally from the losses, I’m confident in saying that it is in the negative. Even if it were a positive number, it would t even be close to the positive outcome that OG provided.

Now if you are stacking up Marty with some sort of bet selection or trigger that works, fine. Even assuming that it doesn’t ever bust. That bet selection or trigger wouldn’t be every hand, it would have to be a small selection of shoes, and then I question if the units won outnumber the units won from
OG. If there is such a trigger or bet selection that an 11 step martingale would survive. I’d actually be willing to invest serious money into it. That would be in my opinion the holy grail. Performing the martingale is less stressful and less work than OG and I’d love to replace what I’m currently doing with something better if you know of one.

And while I totally respect you Craps. I mean, I love 95% of your responses. You seem like a dude I’d get along great with in person, but we will disagree on certain things, which is cool. Like I think it’s not accurate to compare an 11 step martingale to a 2,000 unit OG. And also, hit and run... I’m not gonna knock it. Because, when something works for someone, then that’s good enough in my opinion. And one thing plenty of players fail at is knowing when it’s time to go. With the mindset of hit and run, that’s great because you’re actually leaving with winnings. I think casual/recreational players should be reminded of this every time they walk into a casino. And if it works for a pro, then that’s fantastic! But what I hear when that phrase comes up is, get lucky and get out. Or, I owe my success to luck. Because if something works in the mid to long run, you shouldn’t have to feel like you’re getting lucky and sneaky with your wins. That’s the beauty about OG, I mean, it’s a grind but I feel comfortable knowing it’s gonna survive and hit and run would just be a weird principle to apply to OG. If an 11 step worked for me or you, but we applied the tactic of hit and run, then we are basically telling ourselves that this is gonna lose, but hell yeah, it didn’t lose this time, let’s take our money and get outta here. It doesn’t change the inevitable in my opinion. But I’m an open ear and would love to continue hearing ideas and methods.
Cheers!

 

That is the trigger man. Fallacy do have the 50/50 intact. Don't make it sound like Doom.

 

Thanks for the reply. everything is so true but there is still some points that were NOT what I mean that you think I meant. The 11 Marty is not used on your OG approach. The 11 Marty is used to explain the amount of Bankroll needed from 1 step to the other. You started from -20 which means it's the 4th step 1.2.4.8 which is 16 units all the way to the 1000 unit drawdown which is 10th step 1023 units. Instead of one loss to take out certain units, you are Oscar grinding with those units until it loses enough to go to the next step. The 11 step Marty if unsuccessful is 2047 units which will make your method crossing over the 2000 unit mark. The main point is Marty is 1 loss to next level but OG is grinding of indefinite hands to next level and the comparison of your 2000 unit is like an 11 step Marty.

The other difference is I never even think of going head to head playing like you with a method to see WHO WINS. The Marty is just a tool to get real Math probability but the aim is to win 1 unit and done. Once I get that unit, I abandon the bet selection approach and use a new one. All those bet selection and triggers are done at home from past records on imbalances. When those imbalances reach a point of vast disparity, then I will use it. To sum it up I am the Terrorist sukered punching my way to small damages. How else can a Terrorist do damage? Going to battle with the US army? I do get burned when the Perfect Storm happens but my accumulated fractional wins saved it all not to mention there is Plan B.C D and E doing Tier Martingale. Have you come across anybody doing Martingale similar to mine where the bet selection is not fixed and with Hit & Run for 1 unit? Just 5 step Marty. Anything more would bring too much volatility to the winnings.
Why don't you do an experiment. Use any 5 hand bet selection and try to win just 1 unit a day, No more, no less. See the outcome after you get a clearer picture. Cheers!

 

Gambler’s fallacy is believing that something is due to come or stop. When -20 comes, that’s the trigger. The previous events already happened, and since I wasn’t betting on them, I didn’t lose 20 units. At this point I am not saying that it won’t go -20 more, or that it will recover right away. Because I am not applying gamblers fallacy.

for someone that throws out a lot of psychological terms, then you should be aware of “projecting.” You are most definitely doing that now. My claims of grandeur... the awesome thing about anything I publicly say about my success I can so easily prove. I bought a beautiful beach house with my winnings, I could prove this if I wanted. I bought a brand new Tesla. I’m in the market for a small sailboat. Ordered a Ducati Monster. My life is being built on OG, and it’s beautiful. I can prove these things, and maybe I’m bragging a bit. I’m proud of my accomplishments and perhaps intend to inspire a few. I don’t have to prove how OG works. It’s not a secret. People can obviously research it themselves. And there are people currently doing their own methods of testing. Jimske posted some test results himself today I believe. I don’t know him personally, and I’m not trying to convince him to play something. I’m not promising a holy grail. I’m literally sharing what I do and answering questions and semi-promoting little ideas.

You say that OG has been investigated many times and over the last two decades and has been proven to be worthless. Okay, that’s fine. OG can be worthless with the wrong parameters. You tackle this with $100 playing $5 units and I’ll be the first to tell you that you’ll fail in your first 20 shoes or sooner. You approach this method with 2,000 units and I’ll still tell you that you’ll bust. You may bust your first 20 shoes. But it has the potential to outlive any other mechanical system I’ve ever seen for baccarat.

You can argue with me on this all you want. I’m not telling you anything you can’t research or test for yourself. Take a 2,000 or 5,000 unit bankroll and hand test 2,000 shoes. You can stick to your guns on this without testing doe yourself, or you can try it out, see for yourself.

I don’t own OG, and I wouldn’t give you shit for doing your own due diligence on it. I’ve definitely talked shit about you and your method, and I wouldn’t rub it in your Face if you did decide to entertain the idea and test it out for yourself.

I called a few other systems worthless and anyone playing them losers a few years ago. And I meant losers as in losing their money to the casino. Some people took offense and stuck to their guns. It’s a common response to getting offended. But some people come around and at least test the idea before completely dismissing it.

 

I challenge, i have seen this over and over, in the old days this was the play for most people in Vegas, i have seen people preach this but at the end failure, not saying you are not telling the truth but maybe you hit mega shoes where everything went right for a period of time that got you over the hump, all the power to you and your time is well respected for everything you do to explain. I have been around in the old Vegas days and this was one of the first systems out there like it was a pure winner but have witnesed many go broke, you see there is no math in this system it is simply an over load of player and betting against it that is it. i have learned that testing shoes is garbage and always will be that is why 1% or a little more will beat the game, 40 years and still playing 40 years and still winning

 

So , how do you win? Care to share ? Just the overview will do.

 

There is something here that I see and I don't know whether you see it or not. By the way 40 years is LESS than 41 years. Sorry being sarcastic. Just want to have fun. Jae losses on a Player dominant shoe. Right? How about 5 player dominant shoes in a row? Very unlikely but possible. Look at it this way and now you see why Jae wins. He is doing what I called Probability ON TOP of Probability. The price to pay is 2000 units of Bankroll at risk.Yours findings are for shorter stint with OG.

 

Craps i like your style, the way you state it is what i know is %100 true, hit and run, i am right behind you, been doing it for many years and have been pulling in a steady pay check, i play every day 7 days a week and doe not have many loosing days in a row, the KEY HIT AND RUN love it but people will not trust you (MG) is swear word although i choose neg pro expand a little longer then you do because i believe no i know my bet selection is the bomb

 

Post your bet selection. I know most people say they are afraid to, they don’t want the general public to learn their secret and bankrupt the casino, but being a winner for 40 years, I think that was adequate time to make enough money to share your secrets. I know you do t believe in testing, but let the people here test your method and tell you their thoughts.

Back in the “old days” of Vegas as you put it, maybe OG was popular and shown time and time again to be a losing system. I can actually see that being realistic. I highly doubt many people if any were using an adequate sized bankroll. I don’t know much about inflation, but even a 2,000 unit bankroll betting $1.00 units back in the “old days.” How much is that for inflation? Would it be fair to say that it would be similar to me recommending a 10,000 unit bankroll now, which is definitely not very appealing for some to risk $10,000 to make a dollar. Or $4-8 a shoe. I don’t think you can really appreciate it, and that’s fine. I’m not trying to sell you on it. Just refuting your claims that’s it’s worthless.

 

Exactly right, bettin bankers only is gonna give you the best strikes rate possible, but some cats ain't wanna come to grip with that reality, hey hey.

 

Craps by the way if you have the 41 do you remember back in the day the old Holiday inn showboat was right across from ceasers palace, i stayed there for many, that is where this guy from Canada hits me up with this system about the player over load, it was a place where most canucks stayed 90%, i was young and we kept running into each other and he had a sheet full of chips every time i would see him, he was doing the same system so i asked him to explain what he was doing at the time i was not playing BAC was poker high 7 card stud but after this guy tells all i dive in, he was the guy that swayed me into this game, lost for a few good years doing his player over load but learned from me mistakes, this is an old system but not a bad one i will not touch this for when you go you go big just my thoughts, CRAPS 2 bars back in the day Paul anks Jubilation and the Brewery do you recall just wondering

 

Jae not bashing brother love to see you win may the GODS of gambling hit smack on brother, there is nothing better then seeing someone crush the casinos

 

Another story to tell. Just when Stadium Baccarat was introduced, at the Venetian Las Vegas limits were $5 to 1.2 million. There was a Father & Son combo. Father at least 75-80 Son is around 30=35. Father sits on the side and the son is doing all the betting. Every morning without fail at precisely 5.00 am you can see them in action doing a long Martingale. They have lots of $30,000 tickets to feed the machine if needed. Few months past and they are not allowed to play anymore. Soon the max bet was lowered to 500 K then 100K , 50K and now only 10 K.

 

Not with Flat betting. You left out that part.

 

I was in Vegas during the days of Lyle Stuart the author of the first Baccarat book on winning. He plays at the Aladdin making $4000 bets which is the max. Action was high at Desert Inn mainly Taiwanese patrons.

 

I posted back ( i own it) one person got under my skin and i went as far as i did for a reason, ignorance was a factor so i did not complete the journey, but if you can figure out what i posted there is a system behind what i wrote it just seems that people can not figure it out

 

I get that bro. My first post on here resulted in some people making me not want to share too. I had every intention, but figured why bother giving something that I consider valuable to an asshole. I did share in email with a few people because they were cool and had insight and wanted to run computer simulations. Then after spending more and more time on here, I realized that most of those “assholes” probably weren’t assholes, just cynical. They see a lot of the same shit over and over. People claiming to have the holy grail, but only giving hints as to how it’s performed. While I was confident in what I had originally discovered, I didn’t think it was the holy grail, but about as close as I could come. I made about $14,000 off of $300 before realizing that I did in fact get lucky to a degree and could have been crushed several times in that span. So I beefed it up even more to add a better sense of security. That got me a long way into my current venture. I abandoned that method because it was more time consuming than playing the way that I do now. I used a 1,000 unit bankroll for a month that didn’t fail in that time before upping to 2,000 units in august of 2020. Which has covered two sessions that have gone deeper than -1,000. I still consider myself fortunate that I’ve managed to somehow evade a big loss; however, I’m long in the green and am totally ready when it happens. And then it’s just a speed bump, I’ll continue doing what I do and as long as I keep surpassing the big speed bumps when they come, I’m the clear for a continually profitable future.

 

Jae good stuff like your (att) the one thing about gambling is the attitude, i think it is so important to have that positive flush and push towards reward, it is so easy to get into that neg funk when the deep dive is happening you have what we call (staying power) that is one of the keys to winning if not in BAC but anyway in life

 

Bullshit. I was one of the few that understood exactly what you were doing and I like the idea. You kept changing the criteria for what to bet against because your examples kept showing up losers and when you got called on it you would claim oh that's not it, there's more, I messed that one up, blah, blah, blah for excuses. So then you did the typical 'I'm not going to show you the rest' storyline as a way out.