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Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by BeJustRich, Apr 23, 2021.

  1. Johndepz

    Johndepz Member

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    what would you suggest?
     
  2. Mars

    Mars Active Member

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    A straight up comparison over a small set of real money shoes like 10 should tell you most everything you need to know because there are going to be a series of hot streaks, crashes, and even sections throughout that test the limits of what any progression is going to do. I don't think netizens are even doing that.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2024
  3. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    The problem is too little knowledge, I post the skip/streak pdf document and the measurement process.
    So if I take eight Banker, eight Player, or any other imbalance, as eight singles, eight series, or any other playing model.
    Each has a value of 1 and then there is a tie event and opposite with a value of 1 or higher depending on length.
    Simple to add math and probability.

    The point I try to make is that correction comes in small, medium and large occurrences.
    So here you need to find your window of selection of imbalance and then measure the correction sequences by themself and categorize them.
    This way you will find where why and when Oscar Grind is working with cause and effect knowledge based on statistical samples.

    The insight will be that you will grow as a person with knowledge of how random bits work and perform.
    It is just silly nonsense to copy someone else plus or minus window and hope for the best based upon empty claims and empty words with no statistical evidence or sample examples of the complete selection process and correction samples that can occur.

    Winning is not a simple task and casinos are a billion industry.
    So you need to step up and learn how to develop playing models and gather knowledge that gives you insight into how things actually work in real life and nothing of what I mention has anything to do with Gamblers Fallacy - this is a real-life study based upon good and solid principals.

    When you have lets say one test with one selection with 1000 results of the correction you have data to categorize into small, medium and large samples.
    Then next step you can take them and list them and see what the 33% 50% 70% or beyond threshold or median value is to get expected results.

    If not desired results and expectations you might want to increase the imbalance window and see if there is another effect and make a comparison.
    You need to reach that step to get some deep understanding and complex reflection.

    Also mention that you smaller the window and stronger the imbalance will give more rapid results of small, medium and large corrections.
    And if you do what I suggest you will notice that factor.

    One thing to understand is that you can get rare moments when the correction has an ongoing phase or stretch over time with no rapid correction to reach a reversal or small correction or later medium or large.
    On these rare occasions, you go in deep and don't have a clear expectation if one side is going to stay ahead for over 300 placed bets or if the correction will come slowly to give you a reversal or correction of some kind.

    So decision-making dictates at some point taking a loss and accepting it.
    And targeting many wins with occasional losses.
    Another alternative is to win the majority and many wins and take occasional big losses.
    It boils down to what your statistical observation makes you decide is the best option profit-wise in the long run.

    Cheers
     
  4. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    But I haven't been able to define a specific bet selection based on a specific series count. Maybe some examples would help me. But even so, what is the true percentage advantage?And how many times per hour would such selections occur to make it worthwhile?

    In the meantime, there may be another way to ascertain whether or not a specific bet selection has a greater opportunity to profit. I am specifically speaking of using OG with a starting base of -20 and sayong all such counts are not equal. I might see a -20 occur in a shoe with a lot of chops. I'm gonna let it go and see if the count goes much deeper minus. Certainly a stronger minus count is gonna have a greater chance of being profitable. The first shoe below is such a shoe which I would not jump in after a -20. I'd wait and see hoping it would go deep. Note the disparity between P and B os only about 10 different. IMO the greater the difference the better chance you have to resolve.

    The picture of the next shoe is a better opportunity. Starting at the end , there's not a lot of chops which make you escalate. So on this one I would start after the long P run -34 betting 4 units. And don't forget you don't have to get back to 30. You could just quit with 20 or whatever you want.
    20240613_100758.jpg

    20240613_110549.jpg
     
  5. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Are you just virtually betting until the count would be -20 (or -34) and based on the units to be bet and then jumping in?
     
  6. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    yes
     
    cps10 likes this.
  7. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Jimske I believe I have a better solution than the creator of Oscar Grind who managed to win and I will PM you and describe how to do it.
    I don't want the silent community to get their hands on this.

    You can confirm in public what I share but not describe the situational probability selection that will guarantee a win each visit for the rest of your life and i getting this one coded so I will back up this claim with significant statistical samples.

    As the spellchecker works on the forum I will use the function at the forum for PM and not email.

    Cheers
     

  8. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Ok I post it

    You create a nano or minium occurencie where the STDV or ECART or Z-Score can grow stronger and you ride that wave from the first outcome.
    You need to decide if two or three attempts with indicate that the other side is stronger and you start riding that side.

    This way you create a situational pendulum effect that can not hover at zero point for the whole 300 trails.
    As one side and several sides will grow stronger and get larger samples with imbalance.

    So the hypothesis and math and probability and assumptions are that the 300 trials sample can not stay at zero point at the whole sample.
    And that it can not stay ahead as zero point with no imbalance as that is part of the random bits nature in the universe defined as variance.
    So it has to happen and it will happen at all times.

    So if we develop a marsh or algorithm that just get +1 and quit I don't see how the zero point can overcome such a situation using Oscar Grind.
    So my assumption is that the strings of winning bets will happen and you will catch them, but I am not sure before or after you reach the table limit.

    Cheers Patrik
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2024
    Jae likes this.
  9. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Here are 50 quick sessions all won +0 or +1
    Two hell sequences that had a reversal, one down -10 and the second one down -19

    I will work on the situational pendulum effect assumption where negative output from the very beginning creates pressure for future results.

    Code:
    +1
    +1
    +1
    +1
    +0
    +0
    +0
    +1
    +1
    +1
    ---
    +1
    +1
    +1
    +0
    +0
    +0
    +0
    +1
    +0
    +0
    ---
    +0
    +0
    +0
    +0
    +0
    +1
    +1
    +0
    +1
    +0
    ---
    +0
    +0
    +1
    +1
    +0
    +0
    +1
    +0
    +1
    +1
    ---
    +1
    +0
    +1
    +0
    +0
    +1
    +1
    +1
    +0
    +1
    ---
    
    oscar 1.png
    oscar 2.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2024
  10. Mars

    Mars Active Member

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    'Zero idea how netizens are 'testing' progressions when they buck up against the baccarat, but Oscar's Grind is not that great of a progression at all.'

    Fixing broken things must be a fun hobby. Maybe just some effort could easily conclude this progression is trash. Enjoy.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2024
  11. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    You misunderstand, is not about Oscar Grind as it has no value, is about categorising small, medium and large chunks of regression or correction.
    The Bell Curve would not exist if the regression towards the mean and the law of large numbers existed.

    So when you deal with variance that is random, you need to understand how the up and down perform.
    How do we do that, one option is one advanced march or algorithm.
    If not having knowledge of how to proceed then this list would help.

    List what happens with 1 STDV 2 STDV 3 STDV
    % will be less you higher you move up the ladder of occurrences and I already post the math for both sides of the mean.

    That gives you three windows of occurrences.
    Now collect 1000 selection samples for each STDV window and list all the correction sequences, none, small, medium, and large.

    Now you can pick each sample for each STDV result sequence of correction and measure them to find the 50% 70% or any other % benchmark in frequencies or strike ratio of hits and conclude how many times you would bust and win or make a tie.
    Or go all in and see how common or rare you would make a full bust and compare loss with profit.

    This kind of knowledge takes different time to complete depending on coding knowledge hand testing or a hybrid between both.
    I am pretty sure that many other things will grow and make anyone much better in knowledge when it comes to understanding Oscar Grind that way.

    So if you have statistical samples for such a playing model you are welcome to share and not just state that progression is worthless.
    They are not worthless they are just tools.

    The posted selections are worthless, as people think that I can pick -20 or any other value with no math or probability assumptions.
    Just pure gambler fallacy with no value or benchmark and reason behind such statement or decision making.

    Statistical samples, research, and going deep into solving the puzzle never happen in gambling forums.
    They belive they will find a poster that will give them one solution to become independent economically or win more then they lose.
    That is just nonsense.
     
    cps10 likes this.
  12. Mars

    Mars Active Member

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    So if everything people are posting about here of late has nothing to do with Oscar's Grind why is it being posted here? It just makes it appear that there are efforts to make it work better. Just vote to rename this forum thread 'Oscar's grind + baccarat and a bunch of other things that have nothing to do with Oscar's grind.'

    If math and statistics could beat baccarat, the game would not be offered. Keep trying.
     
  13. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    First of all, I don't play casino games to fool myself - I only play sometimes for fun - so no need to keep trying that is just nonsense.
    We all know the math system and gamblers fallacy don't work.
    If there was an EDGE or positive ROI to gain in the long run I would invest one year of income as bankroll, but we all know that is not the case.

    So let's agree on that part.

    But this topic is about one tool and one solution to apply the tool with.
    So if they enjoy experimenting as a hobby and try to lose less, why not?

    I just stand by my point that math probability and statistics are better than magical thinking with no foundation with solid ground.
     
    cps10 likes this.
  14. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    With respect Mars, what you said there makes no sense! Maths can beat 21 and that's still going strong. When did Thorp write his book? In the 60's or something like that. There are more abstract ways to beat Baccarat and Roulette, but like Sputnik says, no-one is going to go too deep in to how to solve it because firstly, why should they and secondly because most readers would give up after 5 minutes anyhow.

    It takes talent to learn it and it also takes talent to operate it. The only thing funny here would be someone thinking that they could walk up to any table using Oscar's, Marti, Labouchere etc.. and that might work for them (long term) It can't and it won't.

    I am starting to think gambling forums invented 'fake news'! it's been around on these forums for at least 20 years! :) (admittedly, I perpetuated some of it before I woke up and smelt the coffee but then they do say that ignorance is bliss)
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2024

  15. Mars

    Mars Active Member

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    Great entertainment in the forum and redduht postings for sure. Tell us about the alligator moat guarding the computer and AI shops so you can buck up against every single online table and also solve most of in-person hey hey!
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2024
  16. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Well your posts are entertaining Mr Mars. Keep on posting, lol.
     
  17. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Soxfan?
     
  18. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Hey, hey!

    Sounds more like Garnabby to me but who knows? He/She is entertaining!
     
    cps10 likes this.
  19. Mars

    Mars Active Member

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    Nobody would ever specifically copycat the posting style of others for fun and don't care. Sheesh.

    Baccarat is dealing in-person and online 247 forever. All you can eat!
     
  20. Johndepz

    Johndepz Member

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    Bacarat cannot be beaten i have tried everything and tested everything I won for very long time, but in the end, it always loses I thought many times I have the holy grail but eventually it stopped working
     

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