Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

I would like to know how Jae answer regarding this your statement, he is using it long time.

This is how commission looks like:
BET GET
5 4.75
6 5.70
7 6.65
8 7.60
9 8.55
10 9.50
11 10.45
12 11.40
13 12.35
14 13.30
15 14.25
16 15.20
17 16.15
18 17.10
19 18.05
20 19.00
21 19.95
22 20.90
23 21.85
24 22.80
25 23.75
26 24.70
27 25.65
28 26.60
29 27.55
30 28.50
31 29.45
32 30.40
33 31.35
34 32.30
35 33.25
36 34.20
37 35.15
38 36.10
39 37.05
40 38.00

 

After that player run of 13, betting only banker actually recoups that very same shoe, right near the end when it went bbbpbbb

after that we leave the shoe down -7 if you’re betting every hand. This shoe right here is an ideal shoe for my play.

 

Regarding commission. So, I don’t track it per hand, and not on my virtual bets either. I treat commission the way that I do ties. I ignore it. That’s not a very good example... basically, this is a business, and commission is my income tax. Still probably not a good example...

Just don’t ever tack on an extra unit or more to cover your commission in OG. It’s dangerous and not worth it. This has to be a marathon to work properly and safely. Even if you get greedy, look at the big picture. When I start my series with a virtual -20.... I know that I won’t be making the exact number. If it were perfectly -20 when I start the grind and I win every hand in the recovery, then I will have lost 1 unit of profit to commission. That’s the best case scenario. Worst case scenario is the grind goes on and on and gets deep and when it recovers my commission is more than my profit for that series. This is rare, but does happen. I’m also okay with it as I complete 11 to 12 series a day capturing my goal of 200 units. So essentially, I’m paying 20-40 units in commission on an average day and I’m totally okay with that. That’s how I deal with commission, I recover it at the end of the day by playing longer, not by altering the system or adding extra money to my unit size.

Here’s how our team tracks what we need for commission recovery: right before we start a grind, we take a picture of the screen capturing how much money we had when starting, after the grind, we take another photo to show our end result. Then we have a sheet, a ledger of sorts that we wrote certain things down in. One of the columns is the expected value and the return. Let’s say our series starts out at -23. Our expected return that we write down is 22. With Oscar we know that -23 should make 23 or 24 units at most. But we instantly subtract one unit because we know that 5% commission will eat up an entire unit in the best case scenario, and then we are left with the remainder of commission on the -3. This will be less than a unit of profit so we just round down and that’s how we come up with 22. Now the reality is that it’s gonna be less. The average commission we tend to pay on a starting trigger of -20 is 2 and 1/4 units of profit. Or 12.25% we’ll say that applies to my example here. We’d end up writing down our expected value slash actual return.

22/20

If our trigger would have been -20, then most likely our numbers would have looked like this

20/18

As our day rolls along, we light to see these number very tight and close to one another. By the 10th series if we’re at +180, then we’re probably only playing one more series.

 

I read it couple times. Very good explanation! I got you where you are going to stop grind!

 

Jae, you said you are using 200$ as a base bet? means if your bankroll 2000units, how you walk to casino with 400k ? or you using smaller BR to grind it?
In general I play in UK casinos and Europeans, they are very fast regarding payouts and I never had problem with big withdraws or big deposits. Never went more than 20k inside yet! wish to have 100k

 

Guys if you want to play his way, banker only, you don't have to keep track of commission. Basically all you have to know is that you have to complete the series within 400 total wagered units won to come out even/positive. Everything over that your losing a unit for every 20 wagered units won until series is cleared. For this reason I think I'd rather explore the player side with possibly a deeper starting virtual negative. Maybe not even a need for that. This way no matter how deep a draw down you go whenever you get back under your starting virtual you're in the plus. However it does seem as if Jae is basically saying from his playing experience that the average series completion is 160-240 total wagered units won. Would that be correct Jae or can you say even a tighter window from your experience?

 

Since it is a conservative system, it can almost act as MM. But at the end of the day it is not. It’s is a mechanical betting system, and when it comes to most games it is technically a negative progression. I personally believe with the right combination of money management that OG is an advantage play. I’ll explain by simply using the most popular description and original analysis of OG:

It was first documented by Allan Wilson in his 1965 book,The Casino Gambler's Guide. The story is about a man named Oscar, who in the 50’s created the system and claimed to have never lost. He used it on craps. This intrigued Allan Wilson and when he ran simulations on the grind he said that it is possible that Oscar never did lose with a big enough bankroll, but that luck was also on his side as his mathematical simulation claims that you would lose 13,000 units once in every 5,000 series.

I’ve always been fascinated by that.

We know that the don’t pass on craps has a low house advantage, but so does banker. The beauty about banker is that it wins more than player. So the real hump is commission. But proper bankroll and a good strategy can get you over that hump into the positive. So I believe it’s already an advantage play the way it is. As soon as Wilson said that eventually it’ll bust, I feel like most people disregarded OG as a mathematical loser, but even if his analysis is correct, proper money management would overcome those figures in the long run.

While I’m not personally bucking up 13,000 units waiting to be wiped out 1 in 5,000 series on craps; let’s say I was. I would overcome that with MM in how I organized my bankrolls.

A lot of people like to organize their money management system in percentages divided by sessions; but I think the best aggressive way is by combining two mechanical systems.

In this example, we’ll use the martingale, hell, we’ll go extreme and use the grand martingale. And while we all probably loathe it, it’s one simple way to keep things in your favor when battling a negative expectation.

So we’re gonna play craps using Oscar’s grind, bucking up with $1 units. We need a goal, Alan says we are going to bust once in 5,000 series. Mentally we are prepared. The goal is to make it through obviously, but when we fail, we try again with $3 units. If we succeed on the second attempt at making it through 5,000 series, then we profit $2,000 units. We actually get in the green sooner, and we are also not taking into account commission. If it fails, then we’d try again at say $9 units.

this is all a rough example, and the process is very expensive and definitely something I wouldn’t do, but is just brief theory on overcoming that. About four years ago I ran my own computer simulations of millions of series doing something very similar with craps and came out ahead, but it’s a ridiculous way of going about it and the investment versus the return wasn’t good enough in my opinion.

Baccarat is quite a bit different. Although the house edge is very close to that of the don’t pass in craps, it holds a better advantage and smaller drawdowns, ultimately less risk of ruin in baccarat when betting on bank. OG allows you to utilize big bankrolls without fear of hitting table limits unlike most other systems.

While I know that I have been lucky I’m not busting a 2,000 unit bankroll, I KNOW it will happen. When it does, I have a multitude of options at this time, I can either restart at the same unit size and continue playing for 10 days, I can double my unit size and make it back in 5, etc. we don’t talk about our next step very often but the general consensus with the entire team is that we will restart with the same unit size and play overtime. Raising our goal from 200 units a day to 300 units. Play this for 7-10 days before dropping our goal back down to 200.

$100 is my base unit. We keep $250,000 in our bankroll. There are a ton of ways you can operate, I can apply for a marker which would most likely get approved for whatever I wanted. I could write the casino a check upon arrival. I could carry the cash, but it’s not worth my life.

In late October I bought a super heavy biometric safe from Cabellas. It’s currently sitting in a hotel room at the casino. We pay nothing for this room, but every 10 days we sometimes have to move to another room.

The room isn’t essential, but we’ve found it to be a nice addition to our work day. Nobody stays in it, but we meet there, count money there, eat there (sometimes) and end our day there. $80,000 of it is in machine tickets. The majority of the tickets are in denominations of $500 and $1,000. This makes loading a machine much quicker and more efficient. Although, we try to keep less than $3,000 in a machine for easy cash out purposes, with the exception of big grinds. We also don’t want our machine balances drawing attention from other players. Between the 4 of us, we carry $80,000 in machine tickets, if we were to need more money, we have adequate time to send someone to the room to retrieve more. This has happened about 3 times.

 

I’m not entirely sure on the average wager won thing. I have general ideas, but most number crunching, statistics are more of another one of my teammates skills. As far as commission goes though, your assessment can sometimes be accurate, but it’s a grind. So even being negative 100 units can cost dozens or hundreds of units in commission. Here’s an example. Let’s say you are negative -150 units, betting 20 units. The board is chopping.
P
B
P
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
B
P
B
B
P
B

this back and forth can add up. It’s not an ideal scenario, but does happen.

 

Jae, while I appraise it as a system that can be replicable, the rare extreme drawdown would be undigestible to many; rare as it may be. What do you think of the below suggestions:-

1) change bet selection to repeat. If B, bet B. If P bet P. And continue same bet.

2) Have a cut loss situation ie take a break and start a new series at a certain point in time. Question- on what situation?

3) Identify a nemesis type of shoe to avoid taking on. In your case, I can surmise those shoes with plenty of P repeats and few and short B repeats ie 2B or 3B which only pushes the unit bet up higher and caught in a series of losses with P repeats.

Peace.

 

Jae, check your email, if you think its good to share this with all guys just post it here.

 

I’ve just not been able to entertain the idea of betting player. Since the banker is the optimal bet. Granted, I mean in retrospect there are always shoes and times where it would have been great to be betting player instead, but in the long run, banker is the better bet. Since I’m in this for the long run, I have to build my mode around the most optimal way. Even with big drawdowns that aren’t digestible for everyone, I’m really truly comfortable with a bankroll of 2,000 units.

it hasn’t busted yet, it’s also made a ton of money for me. Kind of hard to fix it when it isn’t broke; although, I’m not closed off to hearing ideas. I love them, and I usually do test as many as possible because the most ideal situation would be for me to be able to capitalize on the biggest bet possible with the smallest chance of ruin while being safely under a table limit.

running OG on player is much scarier. The pros: no commission.
The cons: in my play, we’ve had slow days. There was one in particular where we only saw our -20 trigger twice out of 12 shoes. I stuck around doe 6 more hours because I decided to track OG from the player side, banker was just running so heavy. It went negative over 9,000 for the player. I’ve seen player bust a 2,000 unit virtual bankroll a few times that I was actually paying attention and tracking it. Another big one for over 5,000 units.

the small advantage that banker has over player actually makes a huge difference in a grind. People are talking about imbalances, and when it comes to that, banker has a much better chance of evening out than player because in the long run, banker will always win more than player.

but thoughts and ideas are always welcome. Even the most simple can sometimes inspire something big. I’m constantly toying with ideas, but ultimately they just don’t perform better than what I’m currently doing. I’ve put serious thought into developing a reverse grind. So an example would be to clock the player, but bet on banker. You’re essentially risking 1 unit to try and run a series of your goal. For example, if my goal was 1,000, I’d play it out and on days like the one where player went -9,000 I would have hit my goal, but could have hit even bigger if my goal were say 5,000.

ive tested this with things like reaching a goal of 100, it fairs well, but ultimately, it requires so much patience and at the end of the day, you might not hit your goal, and when you finally do, you might not be in the green, unless you adapt an MM style that makes sure you profit when you hit a goal.

 

https://we.tl/t-LCzjpkq4o3

This is 10 shoes as a one calculated with OG non stop. Just an example how safe it is. Also it is two options, you can see with commission and without. Difference is Huge! So at least players will understand how much they are giving profits to casino


Hand 617 Banker BET 323$ WIN 306.85$ TOTAL profit 1890.7$
NO Commissions:
Hand 617 BANKER BET 323$ TOTAL profit 4507$

2,616.3$ Goes to casino as commissions during 10 shoes!

 

Can you email me again, not sure why I’m not seeing it.

 

Did resend. Confirm of receiving it, you will enjoy

 

Looks like Jae has all the bases covered. I really don't think commission is the deal breaker. There may be a better bet selection which would be optimum. I'll continue a small test and report. But like he says is it isn't broke. . .

And if the bankroll is big enough and don't hit table max it seems this will always recover.

J

 

Jae, yer wastin yer times beatin yer head against the bricks wall tryin to convince cats on here that makin wager on the players side of the equation is a foolish proposition. The bankers wager at the baccarats is the only real bargain casino gonna offer but most cats gonna look the gifts horse in the mouth, hey hey.

 

LOL You really are going to die on this hill never bet player, huh? Pfffff!

The success of OG never was, is not now or never will be dependent on B only betting.

Time to give it a rest. We all heard it ad nauseum.

 

Stop it! Jae is talking about probability. It is the negative OG that is giving him the wins. Betting B alone is his choice and he himself weren't sure how the Math goes but is sure there would be more B than P. Odds is the decider. You are constantly talking about probability. THE PAYOUT RATIO of .95% to 1 cannot be overlooked.

 

To succeed with OG, I have to hedge myself as much as possible. So I rely on the side that wins more, I am paying a 5% tax that the casino implements to try and make the outcome more even doesn't make me win less times, just slightly less than even money. Whenever people ask why I don't bet on player, I just try and be as informative as possible. I often give an example of: "if you could only make one bet in baccarat, what would it be, and by one bet, I mean big... putting your house and life savings on it, etc."? We don't know what the outcome will be, but we do know that banker has just a slight advantage and that advantage is important if you're making a big decision. So I treat all my bets like a big decision. I also encourage people that question player bets to do research, because maybe they will discover something. In my eyes, each bet is independent, and every single time banker does have the advantage, so I just have to stick to it. As far as being selective for when to bet banker, that's something I have heavily tested and while I have found particular triggers and placements that seem to hit more, they require a lot of patience and in the end I don't think I'd be making as much waiting for those events, so I haven't tested them beyond a few thousand shoes.

 

Have you ever thought of DEFENSE because defense wins in sports.
Betting B is your offense but you are vulnerable to that dreaded P run which will result in your drawdowns. One more thing i.e. single B is a Devil in disguise. It brings you more harm than good. You basically need 2 or more B's. Have you ever thought of BET B but NEVER against any P?
This way the ONLY way you lose is single B and you need 3 B onwards BUT you AVOIDED LONG LOSING STREAKS OF P.