Roulette Outside the BOX

Yes that's true, i also said that a new holygrail could be that on 1K spin you will have most of the time Red and black quite balanced. So you only wait it to be late :O !!! Put your red nose and go for it brother! See there are holygrails every street 's corner! whew!

 

OK, so I wanted to share a losing session on this so that those who are looking to run out and play this know what to expect. There are 927 spins to the session, however, this strategy was only played until spin 630 when the last number of the unhits finally hit the prog of 8 units. The session ended at 2,238, which was a loss of 762 units. I changed my strategy to something else that I use and kept playing as I didn't want to have a losing session for my stats on RS (not that it really matters). Now, I also can say that in playing this strategy, I am well up by at least 5 times the amount that was lost on this session. But, thought it was important to share for those who don't post but want to find something that works.

Hope it helps. If I've played it wrong, the numbers are all listed just tell me what you believe was wrong.

 

Absolutely accurate. The challenge is how to work around those numbers that peek their heads out but take too long to come around. When there are multiple like that in a single session, it would become a lost session - not necessarily because of any bankroll, but due to the time it would take to play the session out (if you're playing a real wheel).

It's a great strategy, Eddy, but I think you'd be better off playing it flat bet if you believe in the math beats a math game per your quote above. And, if you are going to play it that way, you may be best served playing those numbers that have not hit in at least 3 cycles.

 

Nice Wally, excellent. All testing is good testing. The more I test this particular method today, the more I see that Eddy's preset limits for a win, or loss, are based on his experience with it. There are patterns that develop, ranges basically when you know it's not going to turn around and you need to reset.

As an example, I've noticed that once total bets on the table go past say 35u per spin with the 1-2-4-6-8 progression, you're now on a time limit.

Meaning you need to start looking for an exit, even if that exit is a loss, and simply go recoup whatever that outcome is in the very next session.

If you have multiple 6u or 8u bets running at that point, you need to decide on the fly how far in time and bankroll you're willing to go on that session.

On your chart above, though it's definitely curve fitting to look at it and say "oh, I'd have stopped THERE because I know the future", when you got back to near 0 at spin 180 or so, that would have been my quit point. Or even past that if I was felt a recovery was going to occur, so say I left that session at spin 200 being down -400u, that's fine, I missed the optimal exit but I'm not concerned about it because I know the method's overall win rate.

I wouldn't mind it particularly because I've now seen 20 sessions in a row win, at an average win of +200u per session (a session being on average 3.5x total cycles of 37 spins, or 130 total, including the first 37 non-bet tracking spins).

So I don't mind going heavy into the negative early, watching it for a while, seeing the total bet units per spin get too high, seeing the negative balance increase, and just retreating with a loss past spin 160 at say -200u.

I knew I needed to get out in your session, simply because I know from experience in testing already that wins past spin 200 are rare. If it's taking that long, the chance I'm going to pull it out are decreasing, while the total bet per spin is increasing...not good.

Once you play it enough you can feel when it's going south basically, where the progression cannot recover unless you dramatically increase it...which isn't necessary. Just reset and play again basically.

Eddy said his version wins more than it loses, which is what I'm seeing so far. That could change, but for now it wins massively more than it loses, provided you follow the advice in the thread and establish some limits. Even if that limit was -1000u in a single session, so far I'm far ahead even taking your loss into account.

Keep testing, I will share my results as well, good or bad, once I get past 100 sessions (roughly 350 cyles).

 

Regarding the 6th hit in 111 spins post.
you can try this:
play from spin 1. play all numbers that fall up to max 8. 99% of the time the first repeater will come from one of these numbers, tested.
we are playing numbers with a hit cap of 1.
so when you have 6 1 hits out and one of them repeats. we keep all numbers in tact and only raise the number that just repeated.
when another number repeats from our list, we also raise that one. again adding only numbers to a max of 8
as soon as one number get to the point where it has hit for the third time, we erase all one hits and only keep the repeaters and the third hit number. now only repeaters will be added to our list, again to a max of 8.
a number hits for the 4th time, we raise it (if it',s one of our numbers our it will be added to our play list and we remove the oldest repeater, make it again max 8 im play.
we repeat this proces until one hits the 6 mark and our session is done.
again, just an idea.

 

Nice Eddy, smart way to approach it. Would be worth testing.

One thing I'm learning by watching results and how cycles play out with the unhits-that-reappear-then-are-bet-on method is that you can see when you need to pull the eject handle as I mentioned in the last post, but you can also use a 'stop-win' target of say -25% off the highest BR value for that session to benefit from exceptionally high hitrate sessions.

As an example, just played this session a few minutes ago, would have stopped at spin 78 with a +284u profit. Repeats off the unhits arrived earlier than expected, multiple times.

But...if I then say "well my win target is always +200u, and I'm past that, so I'll continue until it either falls back to +200u from the current +284u, or sets a new high" the session would have gone on to peak at +873u at spin 91, then fall back down -25% to +637u at spin 101...which is where the stop-win is triggered and time to walk-away or reset to a new session.

Many many many sessions go way past whatever win goal you set previously, whether that's +100u or even +200u, so setting some sort of -20% or -25%-from-peak-value limit once you're in a profit may make sense.

And none of these values are in stone, it's too early. I'm sure the win goal, stop-loss, and stop-win values will all change as more sessions are completed, but already it's easy to see how to have a disciplined strategy for this approach.

 

Hi Mako

I would make a reference stop loss around 10 times the spin number for a 1.2.4.8 progression
If you are at spin 90, and your BR is 900 (or close), stop.
Re-track, new cycle.
Say you were -200 and now you are +800 at spin 100, stop.
And yes, most of the wins come around spin 148 ( no surprise there)
I would not go more than spin 200 in any circumstance, if the BR is in -.

Cheers

 

Stop loss = Wins until it doesn't.



It seems that every system wins, until they don't.

 

Hi,

I have yet to encounter in my tests that extreme scenario. In average around around spin 148 the BR is at 1200-1400 units up. If i reach 1200 until then, game over.
I`ve only tested it for 30 sessions so far, (around 4000 spins) and none came to that extreme variation. I`m not saying its not there, i just have not yet seen it so far. there are different variations that can be played.
If i win 30 sessions and lose 1 i will still be up 29x1200= 34800 units.
So what is the problem?

We have to be decisive in our play. As long as the bet selection is solid, use positive progression on the individual numbers. Simple as the day.
PS: I ( PERSONALLY) do not play anything more than spin 185. So my "stop loss" is that. there you go. Either +1200 or spin 185. 4 cycles is enough to prove if a number is good or not.

 

This is what I'm seeing as well, though I'm slowly doing it manually to try and absorb how the hits ebb and flow, to get a feel for the ups and downs.

Through 1500 spins, roughly 10 sessions or 30 individual cycles, no losses.

Very simple to adjust play around the core strategy as you noted, no need to even place bets on the unhits as they arrive until they show up a third time after not hitting at all in the first 37. Regardless of when that occurs, usually around spin 70 or so for the first unhit to reach a third hit, betting on them with a 2-4-8-16 progression is leading to drawdowns peaking around -200u, and wins averaging +450 around spin 130.

That's without even monitoring their gaps or intervals, as it hasn't mattered. Any unhit that misses the first 37 spins, even if it hits 3x times between spins 38 and 74, ultimately has a chance to get to 6 or 7 hits by spin 145. And since you're not on many numbers, you have the range in both table limits and bankroll to not really care as to the timing of when that 6th or 7th hit does finally show.

Will keep testing, see where this leads. It might eventually lead to Caleb's basement "Molestorium", but for now, it's all sunshine and rainbows....

 

Mako,

It's not my basement. It belongs to reality.

By the way, I'm in your back yard next week for around 10 days.

 

What i also found out is that some of the first 8 numerss out are part of the top 3 most hitted numbers after 185 spins!
played ten test sessions on this and there was at least 1 of the first 8 that was in the top 3, usualy 1-3 numbers. funny.

 

75% of the sessions look like these, they're typical of what occurs and the rate at which it happens. They're easy basically, one of the initial unhit numbers begins to appear after spin 37, then appears way beyond expectation over the next 2-3 cycles, you're on it with a positive progression, and you win +500 to +1000u within 111 spins.

They were played with a 1-2-4-8-16 progression, more aggressive than Eddy's 1-2-4-6-8 base version, because in seeing a lot of session results the bigger progression makes the wins bigger without affecting the drawdoens TOO badly. This is a risk threshold choice, if your session BR is big enough and you're able to whether whatever comes that day, the larger progression

Once I hit a high that's earlier than expected, say +400u before 90 spins, I'll set a walk-away point below it, and continue on to try and capture a higher win. Usually that walk-away point is -25% of the high, meaning if the +400u recedes over the next dozen spins to +300u, I'll take the win, reset, continue play. This is why these example sessions have small drawdowns at the end, a high was set and I pushed it to see how far it would go, walked away once it fell a bit.

In the next post I'll detail the other 25% of sessions, where things do NOT go as easily, and what you can expect in terms of drawdowns/losses.

 

Here is an example of two "bad" sessions, which occur roughly 25% of the time. You needed to understand what was happening, what was due (the general's favorite term), and how far you needed to go before walking away.

None of the sessions lost mind you, and both of these sessions won flat-betting. The choice to use a progression instead of just flat is for the same reasons an AP player would...if you think you've got an advantage, not pressing it is either wasting time or forcing an extremely large base unit bet to occur. Plus this is just testing, might as well try to see where the extreme highs and lows lie.

So 75% of the progression sessions are easy like the ones in the previous post, one unhit arrives and hits a ton, you reset/continue.

In the harder sessions like these two, SEVERAL numbers appear above expectation early, raising the bets on them early on thanks to the progression, and then they sit idle while the other numbers with lower bets catch up or go dormant.

In these sessions your drawdown is fast and big, because you've got multiple bets sitting on the table for a dozen spins or more at 8u or 16u, and the smaller hits don't mitigate those losses.

Again, this is where your preset limits of both session BR and understanding of the flow of each cycle within the session is showing you, determining whether you should continue or simple eat the loss and reset.

 

These are reasons why testing without wagering real money, using actual spins in consecutive order from bi-directional wheels, is so critical.

It's not just learning a style of play mechanically and then going and applying it.

It's understanding at all times where you're at in terms of what you're expecting...what has arrived, what hasn't, and how you're going to bridge any gaps that occur between the two.

Only going through a tremendous amount of cycles is going to determine whether a method works, fails, or relies on the player to nudge it away from oblivion when necessary. Only that volume can reveal where the extremes and outliers are, the "1 in 1000 cycles" scenario that the player has to recognize and react to.

Am enjoying testing this particular style of play, it's educational in terms of showing what happens when and what to do if it doesn't, as well as easy to track and perform accurately. Will continue and see how it does.

 

Very informative posts Mako! thank you for you're time and effort. these posts are of great value and are great contributions to the forum in general. Double Thumbs Up!

 

Thank YOU buddy, you and Turbo have provided some great framework to explore, along with enough details to save hundreds if not thousands of hours of testing trying to find them if you hadn't. Greatly appreciate the work and direct help that both of you have done.

One other sidenote to lurkers: Eddy mentioned that after an 8u bet hits in his 1-2-4-6-8 progression, he may stay on it but back it off to the previous 6u level.

In running the 1-2-4-8-16 progression as I am you often will get a 16u hit on a number that got hot early, and you want to continue on and press to see if you can make the session hit an even higher profit before resetting the session. In testing so far, backing that 16u bet down to 8u is proving to be better than leaving it at 16u, or worse, increasing it to 32u.

That first horse tends to fade in the race after it gets that 6th hit, especially if you're only at spin 90 or less, and another number in second or third place tends to overtake it. By backing the lead horse down to 8u, it allows you to have more spins to shoot for the higher win before your -25% off the peak profit trigger forces you to stop and reset. And if that lead horse stays hot and hits again, it's still a nice boost.

Good tip Eddy.

 

This is a tryout session using old live spins from one of my casino visits last year.
All flatbet.
Betting every repeat that pops up, and removing when the 2s become 3s. This until either i hit 185 spins or the board is clear and i have no numbers left to bet.

 

Always glad to help out pal.

 

And two more live sessions. An ugly winning session is also a winning session