Las Vegas GF Chat Room

Punk, this was meant tongue-in-cheek, although I can see how it could be taken as a straight comment. It was meant semi-facetiously as more of a dig at myself, given our posting history.

I'm not one of those guys who never says he was wrong, or blatantly wrong, about stuff. But I can see how this could have been taken without a hint of self-sarcasm. Sorry about that.

 

^^ Don't worry Comrade, you're not as Blatantly wrong as Chrissy Kyle/Kirk Prescott Mitchell. ^^

 

Which one of you two lovers is the bitch? You or punkshitty?

Give me 3 extra points on every NFL game and I'll bet every game, every week, for the entire year. Fuck a bunch of handicapping. I won't even watch the games.

I think it was 2005 Heat against Mavs for nba championship. I was playing poker at the Rainbow in West Wendover every day. The Salt Lake money would show up just before every game. Long lines at the windows. The over/unders would tick up 1 point, 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, even 5 points. I jumped in line at 3 points. By the time I got to the window it was either 4 points or 5 points and I bet the under. It went 6 games. I won all 6 bets. That ain't all the basketball bets I made there but it's an example of what was going on.

Two of the Pepp properties in West Wendover had books. The money wasn't pooled with Reno. Wendover had it's own pool. The book always got flooded with favorites and over bets. They didn't give those wood choppers any kind of breaks. They kept raising the numbers toward the faves and the overs.

On NFL Sundays I would get a print out a couple of hours before the games. I figured the lines had been pretty much been hammered into place by then. When the Salt Lake money showed up I watched for 2 point lines moves towards the favorites and 3 point line moves toward the over. I bet the dogs and unders....but not on parleys. If it was a small spread, like 2 or 3 points I'd bet a 1 point line move.

I made a little money in that book and I didn't know jackshit about handicapping. Just how to handicap numbers. I knew what was moving the line.

But I made the bulk of the money in Wendover playing live poker and video poker progressives, along with some advantage slots.

They had the IGT breakeven video blackjack with a $20 max bet and a comp meter running .8%. I'd run about $160 an hour comp. I paid the marquis price for the hotel rooms with comp dollars. Ate in the restaurants with comp dollars. Bought cigarettes in the gift shop with comp dollars (I no longer smoke). Bought top shelf booze in the gift shop with comp dollars. Paid for haircuts with comp dollars. Paid entry fee's for poker tournaments with comp dollars. Sat at the bar while not gambling and paid for drinks with comp dollars.

I homesteaded Wendover. Did that for over a year until I discovered the Montana plays.

So let's see....I was playing blackjack, advantage slots, advantage video poker, advantage live poker, and advantage sportsbetting, at least I THOUGHT I had an advantage on the sports. That's spreading myself pretty thin, eh, redietz?

These days the book money is pooled with Reno.

 

Mickey how did you come to know something like the money is now pooled? Chatty sportsbook counter folks?

Dealers, and such are a good source of info. Just the other day my brother mentioned that a dealer had told him their casino had been hit by a team of counters and HCers over the weekend. He didn't seem to realise the dealer was telling him because the dealer knew he counts. Dealers and casino workers, even pit aren't always the enemy.

Something else I have been meaning to ask you Mickey. You don't talk much about counting, but I suspect you did at least some back in the day? Probably want big enough advantage for you for long.

 

See, this is what I mean. The book money is pooled. It's been that way for 20 years. That doesn't mean the limits are the same at each location or for each bettor at the same location. Jesus. man. And it doesn't mean that that each separate company with a sports book umbrella with multiple locations has anything resembling identical or similar limits. And it doesn't mean that people with varying card statuses at the same location have the same limits.

Now if you didn't know this, you don't even belong in Sports Betting 101.

This is what I mean. Basic, fundamental stuff. I did a survey close to 20 years ago. The results were summarized in an article I did for Playbook. I still have some of the old survey questionnaires I used.

Now to mickey's other point. I said getting two free points buying off anything but onto and off three in the NFL was of marginal value. Someone argued that onto and off seven had to be a huge advantage. I said do the legwork but use current teams playing with current rules (two-point conversion and lengthy single PAT). Do it for the now, since the question is for the now. Nobody did the off seven legwork so I did a quick fingers-and-toes count. In 2022 NFL you have 43 games where you could use two points to buy through seven. It affected three games. Theoretically, to get the value of those three games, you had to also bet the other 40. Marginal value.

Next, getting free points in the NFL would be great, but there is no real-world equivalent. So now you are into the realm of getting the best of line moves to find anything remotely resembling two point line moves in the NFL. You don't just find two point advantages. Lines move in unison. Thus, to have anything remotely resembling a real world equivalent of a two-point line move, you have to anticipate line moves. You'd have to KNOW here the lines were going. That is not two free points. What I'm saying is that mickey's argument, which is fraught to begin with, has no real world basis. The closest thing would be really lousy weather in December outdoors in the NFL. That's about it.

This is what I mean about Leonardo Da APs. Mickey evidently thought he was making a cogent observation (20 years old or thereabouts). Then he made a straw man argument about free two points being a winner that has nothing to do with shopping real numbers in real time. This kind of stuff is a veritable joke. It's like arguing that 8-5 blackjack payouts would provide a winning shop for counters.

 

That makes some sense, being that few facts are known.

Kew, OTOH, doesn't utilize common sense. Just as he does when it comes to me, he bloviates jealous opinion as fact, and then goes with it as if the way he wants and needs it to be, absolutely is. Sleep and him are enemies because of me, and that is soothing music to my ears.

 

I knew a couple of guys in the crew at Wendover that were middling games among other things. They taught me what was up. I knew them from Reno. They were in Wendover specifically to exploit the difference in lines between Montego Bay and the Leroy's book in the Wendover Nugget just across the street. They knew the Pepp books in Wendover had a separate money pool than Pepp Reno simply because they were in phone contact with people in Reno. On Sundays the lines routinely moved at Pepp Wendover but didn't move much at Pepp Reno.

They had figured out that it was the Salt Lake bettors moving the lines towards the favorites at Montego Bay/Rainbow. The Jack Mormons heavily bet the faves and the overs. The numbers at the Leroy's book across the street from Montego Bay hardly ever moved on game day. Leroy's was a big outfit with satelite books all over the state. They did a huge volume across the state. But Montego Bay/Rainbow did by far the bigger volume in Wendover.

On Sundays they always had one guy in the Leroy's book watching the numbers on game day. The other two guys were at Montego Bay across the street. They were in cell phone contact. In those days they had to step out of the book to use the phone. On Sunday mornings there was always a few games where the lines moved two or three points towards the favorite at Montego Bay but didn't budge across the street at Leroy's.

 

Redietz has gone totally off the deep end. He's bordering on delusional with "I KNOW SPORTSBETTING AND NONE OF YOU JACKOFFS DO!!!" Talk about an ego problem. He writes a lot of drivel trying to look smart but fails miserably.

 

Not to rain on anything, but for me it's another pick/another win. Ho-hum....

I'd say I'm living proof someone out there knows sports betting besides redietz!

 

In 1985, up in Anchorage, Alaska, someone gave me a copy of Blackjack As A Business. I studied the basic strategy. I intended to learn how to count. But then I discovered live poker where there was no heat if you are a winning player. Then later moved into machines. I avoided blackjack because of the heat aspect of it. I didn't want to compromise my position with poker and machines.

But there were a couple of video blackjack games that came out. The first was by WMS. It had early surrender and was a 100.4% game. In those days same day cash back made it a lucrative play, especially multiplier days. Then John Growchowski, the gambling writer for Chicago Sun Times ratted the game out to WMS which quickly got rid of the early surrender.

Then IGT came out with a 100% Video Blackjack game. It was good to run action for drawing tickets or same day cashback or comp.

I gleaned the single deck compositional strategy off Wizard of Odds to play video blackjack.

 

Yeah, all that drivel. Like "give me two/three extra points and I'll take it all day." Yeah, mickey finds two/three extra points on various games all day long.

This stuff is comical, and it's what I mean when someone who I perceive as remarkably brilliant at what he does then goes and blows my perception by actually talking about sports.

I'll leave the Leonardo Da APs to wallow in their own genius. I'll update my contest standings every two weeks.

In the meantime, here's a thought. Sad, but true.

Icons of gambling who spun their wheels gambling beyond their fields of expertise:

Stu Unger, Phil Ivey, Mike Lee, Michael Shackleford, Bob Dancer, Fezzik, Tony Salinas, TJ Cloutier, Anthony Curtis.

Icons of forums who allegedly succeed at AP endeavors beyond their fields of expertise:

Mickey Crimm, Axelwolf, and various and sundry on VCT.

Draw your own conclusions.

I saw this coming ages ago. As sports betting expands, you're going to see Fred and Ethel and every AP under a rock come out and claim expertise by dint of their AP skills. And with the asteroid hurtling towards AP-land, whether 10 or 20 years hence with retinal scans and face recog, what better place to go than the top gambling destination: sports betting.

 

Before you anoint yourself after eight weeks, you might want to follow me at YouWager's Handicapping Contest. The only reason I'm in it is it's free. I hate this stuff. It's six NFL sides a week. I'm 27-20-1, which I assume is in the ballpark of your overall record thus far. That's good enough for 70th out of 420 or thereabouts. So you're doing well, as am I, but it ain't (and never will be close to) 68%.

 

The day is young....

And what do you know--I might be a sports betting AP!

 

I'll add in some free education here:

Why did I pick Houston to cover last night? Because as weak and as bad as the Texans are and as weak a schedule as the Eagles have, no one in their right mind expects that punk Hurts to get anywhere in the playoffs. Translation? Philly is midland at best. They're riding their obnoxious big-mouthed fans, who will begin to fizzle like a cheap and greasy as a Philly cheesesteak as soon as they get shoved out of a World Series the Phillies don't belong in in the first place.

Tampa Bay covering? No doubt. Julio's back, and now that Brady got his issues finalized with that selfish Brazilian bitch, does anybody out there still think he won't be in the Super Bowl? He's the most accurate, least intercepted QB in the league, and when people publicly begin to doubt him....Watch Out! Expect he gets back to normal with an interception ot two as his team gets back to normal with a win over a team he's had trouble with since he beat them in the Super Bowl with NE.

Minnesota beating up on the Skins? Does Sweden have an abundance of slutty blondes?

So how can I pick Tennessee to cover at +12.5 in a place like KC? Wake up doofuses. The Titans have a 5-game win streak, D. Henry is as hot as Madonna's ass in the Grizzlie's locker room, and have you checked out where KC's losses were this year??

Finally, can Baltimore really beat NO by 2.5 at the dome? Huh?? Does The Harbor serve freshly caught crabs? Is there not a ton of black-on-black crime in New Orleans? And does Michael Thomas being out mean anything?

 

Since you are ranting about "professional gamblers spinning their wheels gambling beyond their fields of expertise" would you please remove the several names of compulsive gamblers you put on this list as they are not "professional gamblers."

reditz, king of the false premise.

 

Would you please explain to the readers what you think my field of expertise is? Then name those fields you think I have no expertise in?

 

You put this contest shit up always after the fact. Which gives you the option of not putting anything up if you're getting beat.

Years ago there used to be free bingo every morning at Club Cal Neva in Reno. Of course, it attracted every bum in town. So we called it BUM BINGO!

So it looks like they have the same thing at YouWager, a free handicapping contest.

BUM FOOTBALL HANDICAPPING CONTEST!

Hey, redietz, I've got an idea. I'll enter 20 or so BUM FOOTBALL HANDICAPPING CONTESTS. Stagger the picks on my cards. Then half way thru the season I'll pick out my best one, then post the results up in the forums making myself look like I'm sharp as hell.

Oh, wait! You probably already thought of that! OMG! You did!! I'm, I'm sorry! Hope I didn't blow your cover!

 

I too as well as probably everyone else across the forums, am confused as to why red never mentions any of these outlier football contests and tournaments unless and until he can boast a bit. It makes you wonder how many of them we don't hear about that are mugging him. It's gotta be a business decision or something. Very unfit for someone who argues I can't do something I've set as my goal.

I'm no weak-ass and failed gambler kew. Fight strength with strength man!

 

Isn't it glorious!

Only a shithole, crime-ridden cesspool of a city like Philadelphia could fail on such a grand scale. Not only did their "Major" League Soccer team loaded with foreigners and faggots lose the championship today---the POS undeserving Phillies LOST THE WORLD SERIES TONIGHT!!

Now we can all sit back, relax, and watch the pretender Eagles go down in flames in the weeks to come.

B-E-A-Utiful....

 

Sad old has been, talking of “ back in the day” chocking on horse shit now.
The point of the dietz posts was to discuss the “back in the day” has been posters , not named by the way , but sure as sweet baby Jesus was a toddler you shit yourself and rise to the surface on green bile mikey. The take out as I read it was “the times are are changing” and many of you self proclaim AP with your interverse backed up credentials are going to be left behind in the near future. You obviously via your self proclaimed interverse EXPERTISE, oh an expert for your information is just that crusty secretion on the bed sheets in the morning, was something back in the 80s . You obviously don’t work the industry anymore as all your stories are pre 2000 ad.

The opportunity doesn’t exist anymore more. Here in skipptophia those avenues dried up yonks ago. I had posted here this forum some years ago that many AP would flounder if they ever left the nanny state of USA. Instead of scrounging for Tito and giving head occasionally for that warm meal in your stomach, you would be giving head all the time if you had to practice your AP “ skills”(lmao) outside of hobo vagasville

You and others like you with your excessive egos can’t admit when your wrong. You are going the way of the dodo. I happened to agree with dietz and his post outing puffed up wannabes, not because I like the man , not because I admire the man , not because because I believe he’s entirely correct as far as sports betting on ATS is the ONLY method to succeed in sports betting. But he does know a bucket of shit more than I do ( re sports betting) and heaps more than you plus countless other here. Doses not make him infallible or 100% correct but it does require an honest assessment of what he posts. I for one am honest in making assessment and honest enough to give credit where and when credit is due regardless of my personal opinion of the thread poster. It is one of the key ability needed to adapt to the changing playing field that casinoverse and sports agencies use to protect their coffers.

I mentioned the playing field here in skipptophia ,other threads , previously, AND no most of you could not survive or adapt here . The way things are done here is 15 years ahead of where usa gambling is going. As dietz says it’s going to get hard for you AP there in the near future. You mikey are lucky you are old and living in your dream world of “back in the day” be gracious and realistic your not the expert of today’s gaming environment requirements to survive and prosper .

Im on record previous posts various threads supporting posters rights to gambling as they choose, I support those of you that post your parlay bets as I know from personal experience that I do WIN my parlay bets on the nrl, nfl and tennis. They may not win every week but season wise they are successful . Im a gun on test cricket betting skipptophia versus anyfuker in skipptophia. I make a substantial amount on baccarat.

Im on record taking the trash to dietz in particular his condescending attitude to most degen gamblers that hes happily exploiting to get his acknowledged ( a few posts back by dietz, respect for that admission by the way ) free benefits for his use , from their losses to fund the brickyard casinoverse that he and many like myself frequent , I personally say thanks to you degen daily, we need you .

But you mikey, dodo ville awaits. Your blackjack prowess lol , video poker, outdated sports knowledge, things of the past like beta max and my first girlfriends virginity , a memory.