Blackjack Percentage Count

This is a downscalled version of the column count derived from 3 sources.
Edwin Thorp, Don S, CVData

The problem with the column count is in order to compete, one must weigh hitting and winning odd hands like 16 vs 5 against getting preferential shuffled on. Deep pen is where the majority of the potential losing hands are turned into winners.

Don S was very important in this sector and insurance (explain later). Don spoke to the insignificance of winning odd hands vs his developed ill18. From that, although my column count would win more odd hands,, I determine the trade off was clearly not worth a won hand vs preferential shulle or heat.

Don S also spoke to the irrelevance of some cards. Like the 8. Thus a 2 column percentage count with 48 cards.

CV Data has more options to Sim a count than Bubba had in ways to make shrimp.

But a percentage count is what it is. A percentage of what has been played vs what still remains to be played. This is no estimating...

 

I was able to get close enough by going Exact count Resolution, True count floored, deck estimate truncated.

Instead of estimated True count. There are Exact categories at 50%, 57.14%, 60%, 66.67%
Reversed is 42.86%, 40%, and 33.33%.

57.14% is 0 9vs As played and 6 3-7s played. Then 4-9 8-12 12-15.

Most hands are between the 42.86 and 57.14. Generally, the game changes after RC 2 and -2.

The advantage begins at the percentages listed.

So large betting begins at 60% as long as at least 2 Aces still remain, bet two hands.
0-8 3-10 6-12 9-14 12-16.

Max bets begin at 66.67% as long as 1 Ace remains. 0-12, 2-13, 4-14, 6-15, 8-16, 10-17, 12-18. The majority of these bets will be after 8-16

So you let the game come to you.

 

In addition, I side count the Ace and the 9.

I will go large at 59% if 9's remaining do not exceed the Aces remaining and there are at least 2 remaining.. 1-8, 4-10, 8-13, 11-15, 14-17

Don S is keen on insurance. I built a column count around insurance which didn't improve my game. So "close enough" as Don as said is good enough.

So I will know exactly how many 10's, 9s and Aces have been played vs 3-7 tags for an insurance correlation of 840. I know that any 2's or 8's seen increases the IC.

 

Double downs and splits are decided on an advantage basis as opposed to thesholds.

This can be done with CV Data but it figures thresholds.

Split are less because chewing up cards doesn't make sense on NO DAS games.

 

Double downs and splits are decided on an advantage basis as opposed to thesholds.

This can be done with CV Data but it figures thresholds. It is extensive and laborious.

Split are less because chewing up cards doesn't make sense on NO DAS games.

 

Edwin Thorp talked about the importance of the 5. Even talked about an Ace,5 count.

So after many combinations of Sim's. I tag 3467 as 1 5 as 2. 9,10,A as -1. I was thappy to see this produced the highest SCORE by far. And it's the easiest to do because the are no 1/2 point counts. This cut the percentage charts in half and gives the flexibility to side count 9 and A's. Something Freighter told me he did years ago.

 

The column count with today's pen meant working too hard for the dollar. Too many people come and go from green chip tables.

The problem was getting enough hands with quality decks compositions for large bets.


This percentage count provides around 7% large bets without sacrificing strong deck compositions.

 

The column count with today's pen meant working too hard for the dollar. Too many people come and go from green chip tables.

The problem was getting enough hands with quality decks compositions for large bets.

This percentage count provides around 7% large bets without sacrificing strong deck compositions.

 

The betting charts for double deck start at 57.14%
0-12, 4-15, 8-18, 12-21, 16-24, 20-27, 24-30,
28-33, 32-36

60%
0-16, 6-20, 12-24, 18-28, 24-32, 30-36,36-40

66.67%
0-24, 4-26, 8-28, 12-30, 16-32, 20-34, 24-36,
28-38, 32-40

 

Ok, I have let you have your say, uninterrupted as per your percentage count, now I will make a few comments based on my opinion.

First point: it is always nice to credit someone that you feel helped or influenced you. But if you get the person's first name wrong AND misspell their last name, it becomes more of an insult that an honor. The closest I can find to the name you put up is a gynecologist from Tennessee who is head of Blue cross and Blue shield. I assume you are speaking of mathematician Edward Thorpe who did some groundbreaking blackjack work in the 60's.

Second point: I can't honestly say I understand what you are doing from what you wrote. You can and will call me stupid, but I am not. I would have to study further. I suspect the mathematics is sound and it works and provides an advantage and probably a little higher or better advantage than most counts used today IF the player makes no mistakes. The first argument is the same as with any more complex count and that is the proponent of such count doesn't allow for any increase in error rate, when there most assuredly will be. So you accept the good (higher return) with out acknowledging the bad (higher error rate). The second argument is any gain involves extreme diminishing returns. There is a base point that all counts identify a certain advantage. People that implement more complex count MAY be able to go slightly better but at substantially more effort. THAT is called diminishing returns. A player needs to figure out if it is worth it and for most, the answer is no.

Third point: And this is one I have always had with you. Single deck blackjack at 3:2, not 6:5 is so rare, basically only Reno, that basically no other blackjack players have access to. So everything you describe is basically useless to all other players, especially, non-seasoned players. And any newer or non-seasoned player that even attempts what you claim is going to do far more damage than good. That is not to say, what you are claiming can't work, but it is so non-mainstream and of a game that almost nobody has access to that any mention of it should really in my opinion come with a disclaimer about single deck and Reno and that Reno will not allow a player to get any real money down anyway. For the rest of us, the 99.9%, what you describe is just not how you win in today's world.

My fourth and final point: If you have discovered the holy grail, the true secret to great riches, why have you only profited 100k over 10 years. That averages to 10k a year or less than the lowest paid fast-food worker makes. It just doesn't mesh.

Finally, just my opinion and I am sorry, if this offends you, but I have always thought you and what you claim was more about making some sort of name for yourself (shades of T3) and not about winning money, which is what the game is about for most players. I just don't think you understand what it really takes to win in today's blackjack games and world. It is about identifying an advantage, get in, get the money down (higher bets) and getting out, living to play another day. It isn't about squeezing every last drop of mathematical advantage out.

The above with the exception of Edward Thorpe's name comments are just an opinion. That of a professional player for 18 years that has made decent money. If what you write works for you, God bless. But it is hard to stay silent when you promote it, because others don't have access to real single deck games, nor will this work for 99.9 of other players. Now if someone owns a Delorian and Flux Capacitor and can be transported back to the 1970's and 80's, there may be some value.

I have honestly tried to be respectful of you in this review. I doubt I will be shown the same courtesy.

 

1st point; I thought it was spelled Thorpe. But after you questioned I Googled it and it came up Thorp. I had the book in 1985 when I began playing. But probably lost it in the move in 2011. Relax Pee Wee there was a break from about 1990 to 2010.

2nd point. The count is simplified greatly. Certainly far less complex than Hi opt ii and others with side counts. This is about knowing exactly where you are in the deck. Dealers shuffle every 6 to 7 hands. You must know the difference. If they shuffle at 5? Walk on by. It's not "slightly" it's often the difference between winning and losing.

In Tennis it game, set, and match. In single deck straight up it's hand, deck, and session. Sometimes you have lose the hand in order to win the deck. If that went over your head, I will explain later.

3rd point: Yes. Single deck is primarily in Reno. Since I live here, when not find way to win within casino tolerance. That's what I have done. Did.
This will work at 2 decks. But why play 2 when I have one. If you can't spread back on forth between two hands? Fuck it. You have no game worth playing. The game is about advantages not thresholds.

4th point; Say I make $1k a month to pay bills. That's $12k a year. Over 10 years that's $120k.
But if I push the limits to make $5k a month and get banned in 4 months. That's only $20k. That is exactly what I was doing when I arrived and exactly what happened. So I began a search and found CV Data. Truth is casinos here don't want a player to make any money. If they view some as a break even player they ban them anyway. That is what I've been told by pot boss or two.

Final point: I don't care about fame. Get in get paid get put was the mission. It's a game of people played with cards. So I'm waiting for the game to come to me. Those moments come and go quickly. So you have to make exact decisions quickly. There is no time to do math at the table. You have to know what you want and pounce like a lion when it comes.

 

Not just casinos there, casinos everywhere don't want you to win. As soon as you walk in the door they think they legally own every dollar you have on you and every dollar they can get out of your bank account. I was playing my local Indian casino a couple years ago and I won my goal which I think was $50 really fast and it was just me and the dealer at the table. I said to her off hand, because I knew her, well, I made my money I'm going home. She said to me in a very low voice, "don't let THEM hear you say that. they don't like it when you win, they squeeze every nickel around here. It's sickening." they don't look at me much because I play roulette they just assume all roulette players are losers even if they won they'll come back next week and lose it all. If they knew I came there with a goal, made the goal, and left, they might start watching me. That's why I'm never there for very long, make my goal and get out. And I never buy in, I always have a bunch of red chips from last time. So they never know how much I started with because I usually do not sit and play. I make bets from the outside.

 

Edward Oakley Thorp is an American mathematics professor, author, hedge fund manager, and blackjack researcher. He pioneered the modern applications of probability theory, including the harnessing of very small correlations for reliable financial gain.


I never really thought about it. But I harness small correlations for reliable financial gain.

 

"In statistics, correlation is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables."

Yep, that's what I do. I see a relationship between two random outcomes and harness it for financial gain. Doesn't matter if that relationship is real or imagined it can still be exploited if it's been seen to be reliably repeatable.

 

The ONLY you do is run your mouth all day long on various internet forums and post stupid food pictures.

 

Again, how the hell would you know what I do all day. Are you here? I don't think so. If constantly talking out your ass paid money you'd be rich because that's all you do. You realize this, correct? That you're totally full of crap?

 

Losing a hand to win the deck.

Suppose the count is 10-13. I get 77 vs 5. My count just jumped to 10-17 which is 67% high cards remaining and 34% low cards. Chances I'm getting two 17s. It should still beat the dealers hand that starts with a 5. So on a green chip table I stand a good chance to win $50. The dealer will shuffle if I split.

So I stand. Dealer has a 4 in the hole and hits with an 8. Darn I lose $25. But now I'm quickly spreading to two max bet hands with 11-18. A rare 2% play with more than 67% high cards remaining.

Suppose I have 12-16 and 3 Aces gone. I'm going to play this hand min bet and wait for better deck compositions.

These are things the Sim already does because that is what it's told you do. But doing otherwise is the better value.

 

Bosox writes: Hello guys, I have been preoccupied having so much fun meeting woman at country clubs. The clubs hire bands that play songs that cater to a somewhat older crowd. I did not realize there was a market for this sort of thing but on any given Friday or Saturday night there may be around two hundred people there all having fun

Tater says: it does my heart good to read you are doing well. All the best.

 

Don S writes regarding Clumping at blackjack info: Enjoy. I'm completely out of this. It was garbage then and it's garbage now. And, it's not about "opinions and personalities." It's about what is fact and what is fiction.

Taters says: I'm speaking to pitch games. Blackjack is like being tied to a pole during a hurricane.

It's not "that" the wind is blowing. It's "what" the wind is blowing. Chances are if you get hit by a flying Volvo you will not survive.

In blackjack. It's not "that" the dealer is winning. It's "how" they are winning. If they are getting a higher percentage of blackjacks and two card 20's than CV Data suggests, chances are you won't survive.

 

2.7% of dealer hands are 2 card 20's.