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Baccarat Philip Koetsch STATS & My Results

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Sputnik, Jul 25, 2020.

  1. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    "Conquer the Casinos'' by Philip Koetsch
    Simulated 600 sessions with 100 trails/placed bets each with 1.7 House Edge
    Statistical significant

    Now we can talk expectation:

    1) what are the absolute worst and best things that could theoretically happen?

    2) what were the worst and best things that actually did happen in 600 rounds?

    3) what were the average worst and best things that did happen?

    4) what typically happens if you don't get out while your ahead, but instead play the full round of 100 games?

    5) during a round, how often can you expect to get ahead by at least 10, 20 or 30 chips?

    6) in a 100 game round, how many times does your bankroll net-status typically reverse from losing to winning?

    7) how often does this net-status never reverse but remains losing throughout a 100 game round?

    Here is the table for the first example just betting one chip for each of the 100 games.

    flat stats.jpg

    And each game has reversals getting back to zero after a negative result


    reversal stats.jpg

    I solve the Sputnik March and now know how to play each and every trail with no triggers or patterns.
    You just follow the flow of the even random bits using an advance betting schema or march.

    100 placed bets sample

    session peaks

    +23
    +15
    +15
    +9
    +2 end with -10 loss
    +5
    +11
    +2 end with -10 loss
    +23
    +17

    Cheers
     
  2. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    I remember a person who made millions - don't know if its true - but hes name was Norm RIP and he told people that the only way to bet the game is following it - there are different ways to understand from a personal perspective - source Beat The Casino

    When I use this betting schema I feel safe and secure with small swings and large strikes in my favour the majority of times.
    Above you can see six-sessions at 10 units or above and two losing sessions -10 units.
    Only two losing sessions all the other ended with positive results after 100 placed bets.
     
  3. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Hi Sputnik,

    Thanks for the great information. When you say follow it do you mean FTL? I’ve read from a lot of “experts” that this is the optimal way to play the game.
     
  4. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    cps10 I will give you some advice, I can not promise a red Ferrari or one solution beat it all, that is nonsense, my opinion.
    There is some things to avoid and some things to embrace.

    This is a red alert and worth several hours of study each day or at least several times each week.
    When I read that a gambling punter makes 30.000 Euro and show upfront what is up to and others start to report the same success doing the same thing.

    When I see a punter satisfied with conclusion and method without bragging and promising a golden egg.
    And based upon own experience you can grasp and understand the value behind the particular method.

    Trend Catcher by Malcop is a very good and clever solution and similar towards Sputnik's March Final Solution.
    https://www.roulette-bet.com/2014/04/trend-catcher.html

    That is based upon my opinion a good start.

    Cheers Patrik From Sweden
     
  5. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Thank you Patrik! Yes I am always testing and trying to apply the right money management techniques which I think is the key to success.
     
  6. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    No, FTL(last?) is just another mechanical approach that is doomed to fail like all mechanical approaches will.

    I am familiar with Norm's FTS (follow the shoe) approach as I was a member of BTC for a whole 1 month, lol, as 90% of it is gibberish fluff where folks come up with "indestructible" mechanical systems. But Norm's strategy was TO DO WHAT A SHOE IS DOING. If its choppy, you bet chops, If its streaky, you favor streaks, If its a SS(strong sided), you bet with a SS and against a weak side (Gizmo also wrote about it in "Reading Randomness" thread). Norm's manual was never published anywhere in full but there are bits and pieces of it if you search long and hard enough. I endorsed it for only one reason...IT WORKS!!!...much better than all my prior mechanical systems with a steep negative progressions.
     
  7. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Yes, that is correct when singles bet singles when series bet series when one side strong bet one side.
    And if someone is new to know when to swing direction they need some guidelines and I think Trend Catcher is a good start.

    Is better to be on a strike before it has happened and same with singles and there is a reason when, when and why to jump in and out.
    Is heaven when singles and series and one side strikes, but even if you follow the shoe there is some oceans to avoid, my opinion.
    When you get TIEs and no tendency toward any of the directions you can end up with -10 units.

    Someone has to have realistic expectations winning eight to nine out of ten the majority of times, my opinion.

    Cheers
     

  8. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    You're correct Sputnik. Nobody can know when a bias changes, as a shoe may change biases 3-4-5 times...but all it cost you to find out is only 1 unit, however if you still catch that bias you will show a profit. That's why Norm's motto was ...WHEN IN DOUBT, WAIT IT OUT! And...IF ONE PLACES MORE BETS THAN TAKES FREE HANDS...ONE BETS TOO OFTEN.
     
  9. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Xytras thanks for your comments.

    This is my personal challenge for my self and if I succeed I will considering adding baccarat to my portfolio, at the moment i only do sport-trading and have a sport-gambling-syndicate, if anyone is interested.

    The Van Keelen Test (With La Partage Rule)

    Every serious system player is interested in an objective method, giving him information about whether his system has a certain value and is going to produce a net profit in the long run.
    Besides the "Statistical Ecart" and other test options, with which we will deal in one of the next issues of Basics, "the Van Keelen Test" is a simple measuring procedure, with which the player can determine the chances of success or failure of his system.

    The Van Keelen Test, which was developed decades ago, will give the player information about the value of a system and requires the player to check his system over a certain number of placed bets before he begins the practical play.
    This again has the advantage that possible losses only develop on paper and not in reality at the table!

    The Van Keelen Test sets into relationship the net gain of a system to the number of placed bets, whereby the minimum number of the placed bets checked for all chances must amount to at least 1000.
    The units wagered must be of equal value; no progression is to be used! It is very important to point out that we speak here of placed bets, not spins!

    To check a system over 1000 spins has no meaning!
    This testing method has the inestimable advantage that a system must be checked at least over 1000 placed bets, and on this basis a prediction about the value of the checked system is possible.
    With 100000 *checked bets, even a negative result can be still another feature of a good system. Because if a system indicates a real superiority over ZERO, the possibility exists, that with an adapted progression continuous gains can be obtained.

    Even-Money-Bets (Black/Red/Even/Odd/High/Low):

    A system indicates a genuine superiority:

    1. if after 1000 placed bets a gain of more than 100 units was obtained!
    2. if after 8000 placed bets a gain of more than 60 units was obtained!
    3. if after 100000 placed bets a result better than - 1000 was obtained*

    Text and credits to www.win-maxx.com

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2020
  10. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    [QUOTE="Xytras, post: 99955, member: ...WHEN IN DOUBT, WAIT IT OUT! And...IF ONE PLACES MORE BETS THAN TAKES FREE HANDS...ONE BETS TOO OFTEN.[/QUOTE]

    Let's enlighten us about the spots where we should be in doubt or deadly sure about the next outcome/s.

    We are all ears.

    as.
     
  11. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    I am glad to assist upon my knowledge and opinion because my mantra is to tell when, where and why we place bets with optimal options.
    All selections are not the same and I will argue in the following way.

    Follow The Last and back to back is the strongest entering point comparing to all others.
    Because you only need to play two single bets to catch the optimal option.

    Take one series and play that a new series will show, if not you play to get two singles.
    And you continue to bet and risk two bets and will win and win and lose but never bust.
    That is the main core betting schema.

    Now let's focus on the other two out of four properties of the random universe.
    One Side Betting.

    Now when you lose two bets you have the following situations that can develop in a different direction, here I HOLD MY BET.
    To see what happens before placing the THIRD BET.

    3 indicate a series of three or higher
    2 indicate a series of two
    1 indicate a single

    212 BB P BB
    313 BBBB P BBB
    213 BB P BBBBB
    312 BBB P BB

    They all have one thing I common One Side Betting.

    My stats show that the majority end with a series or break even (two singles)
    And when not the strike continues with one strong side.

    212 BB P BB PP
    313 BBBB P BBB PP
    213 BB P BBBBB PP
    312 BBB P BB PP

    212 BB P BB PBP
    313 BBBB P BBB PBP
    213 BB P BBBBB PBP
    312 BBB P BB PBP

    Now, this is one expensive third bet (my opinion) for two reasons, back to back repeating results and break even with no win.
    One other way is to ride the flow and the continues with one single bet, then if the One Side Strike You Catch Heaven.
    Reverse if you do not win the third bet striking You Know The One Side Stopp.
    And the only thing that can happen now is back to the back of the one side strike.

    Another solution is to place three bets total and only allow the forth property to show.
    Then you catch every property that strikes BBP BBP BBP BBP or PPB PPB PPB PPB
    If you lose your third bet you will have 213 or 321.

    I would Hold My Bet and do nothing or I would bet a third bet on the One Side To continue.
    If I do nothing I wait for the One Side Strike to end and continue with the third bet on the core bias of the shoe.

    The lesson I learned was to run Roulette Extreme and collect all the One Side Strikes and see how different and how common they develop in different ways. Only focus on the One Side Strikes and nothing else, when someone solves that you will have what I consider the optimal method.

    With Trend Catcher, we can read that GLC and Malcop tackle the situations differently and one uses a mechanical solution and the other hes experience and 7th mindset.

    This is how it can look like

    21212
    213
    321213
    313
    212
    212
    321
    2132123
    3131313131313

    Hope this puts some light on the Hold and Pause options, and this is based upon my knowledge and understanding.

    Cheers
     
  12. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    Deadly sure about a next outcome??? There's no such thing in gambling! So yo can stop looking! Don't think I said anywhere that there is. Hope that enlightenment enough!
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
  13. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Now I bet and bet using Trend Catcher and a variant of Sputnik's March selection.
    Perfect Bell Curve and Peak at +62.5 units flat betting.

    The Van Kellen Test 1b.jpg

    The Van Kellen Test 1a.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2020
  14. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Next, I will make 100 placed bets samples and aim at +5 units (one below average) and let the last unit ride.
    So the results will be between +4 and above.

    And yes I will post each and every placed bets PDFs for everyone to download.
    Save the Van Kellen Test 1 above in Roulette Extreme.

    Cheers
     

  15. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Van Kellen Test Two - La Partage Rule - Edge Unknown - Follow The Shoe - 1000 Placed Bets - Flat Betting

    van kellen.jpg

    van kellen summary.jpg
     
  16. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Now there is a sequence or state - a property that works as an equalizer against every possible situation of imbalance in the universe of random bits. Someone mention Norm RIP (Beat The Casino) staking 12121212 and I thinking 2121212121 is all about the chain reaction.
    Made short testing and got sky-high profits at no time at all, but I have not fully solved the puzzle.

    Cheers
     
  17. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    I just have to say that is about how to tackle the One Side Betting and the main core betting is like a chain reaction.
    My suggestion is that you study Sputnik's March & Trend Catcher - my personal opinion is that is among the best public even money discussion ever.

    Cheers Patrik From Sweden
     
  18. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Is true, stay ahead and quit, ten out of ten, one break-even, FOLLOW THE SHOE
    +5 +6 +5 +6 +4 +8 +0 +7 +5 +6

    fts 1.jpg

    fts 2.jpg

    fts 3.jpg

    fts 4.jpg

    fts 5.jpg

    fts 6.jpg

    fts 7.jpg

    fts 9.jpg

    fts 10.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
  19. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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  20. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Statment 1
    Mindset and educated guesswork based upon a know framework or blueprint of options.
    You can have several known situations and you can have a stronger feeling for one among them and select that option based upon emotions or educated guess that just that particular options feel like have a larger likelihood to happen, estimation process.
    That if you decide to make a bet, you might feel none of the options has a greater likelihood to occur and Hold Your Bet and allow the situation to unfold with no action taken.
    Now the process repeats itself, but you face a new situation of options that will have an impact on your estimation process.

    Statment 2
    If you do not use Statment 1, then you will use a mechanical approach and that is statement 2.

    Statment 3
    If you don't use Statement 1 and Statment 2 you will use a combination of both and that is known as a hybrid, that is statement 3.

    Note
    I believe that the hardest skill and highest level is Statment 3 because you have to be at both Statment 1 and 2 to reach 3.
    I have just entering Statment 3 but don't fully master it yet.

    Cheers
     

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