Blackjack Play Smarter, Not Harder!

Back in 1970s and 80s, when a variety of powerful card counting systems were invented, single-deck or double-deck blackjack was common., and a shoe had no more than four decks. But those were the bygone good old days as in that 1960s' hit song "Those were the days" only.

Today's blackjack is very different. In most of the reputable casinos, card counters may find 6 or 8 deck blackjack only. This is the cruel mathematical fact: Today’s counters must work five times as hard at least, and risk bankrolls five times as much as their predecessors had. Consider this example:

A shoe got off with a promising start. After one deck is played, the running count is +6. The true count is +2 (to Hi-Lo practitioners). Counters at the table had already raised their bets, and back-counters near the tables may fight to jump in.

But if it is an 8-deck shoe, the true count will only be 6/7 or 0.86, not a yet profitable betting opportunity. In order to have the same betting opportunities as those of a 4-deck shoe, counters and back-counters can only hope that the running count will remain at +6 after four more decks of cards are played. Meanwhile, counters already at the table must still bet at a disadvantage. In fact, if they still count and play blackjack the old-fashioned way, the more they play, the more they lose. As for back counters, they must still patiently await a betting opportunity that may not show up in hours or days. Staying home would have been a better choice for both counters and back counters who still count and bet the old-fashioned way.

From that, this should be obvious for all: Get New Skills, Play Smarter, Not Harder.

 

A couple things. First, let me explain how the advantage in card counting works, because most people don't understand. The advantage is not just when there is a + count of say +5 or 6 (true count). It is when that +5 count starts going back towards zero. That is when the aces and 10 value cards are coming out. If the count never comes down from whatever high number it was at and the cut card comes out with the count at +5 or 6, there really was no advantage in those rounds. The advantage was behind the cut card and never realized.

Of course, that is hindsight. We don't know that until after that fact. As we are playing all we can know by a strong plus count is that there are more aces and 10 value remaining and hope they come out before the cut card.

Now I agree about some of what you are saying about the books from the 70's and 80's. You use a catchy phrase like play smarter, but you don't say how you would do that.

I will tell you how I have learned to do that. Let's start with the games from the 70's and 80's. Let's take a double deck game, dealer stands on all 21 which was standard at the time. House edge 25.6%. So roughly in a game like that the player was playing at disadvantage two-thirds of the time and an advantage (+EV) one third of the time. So just a small spread betting 3-4 times more on that one third of the rounds played with an advantage was enough to overcome the two thirds of rounds played at a disadvantage.

Now you add in the rule where dealer hits soft 17, which is standard now, since about the time I started playing in early 2000's. and the house edge almost doubles to 45.6%. The whole advantage and frequencies line gets shifted significantly to the left. Now the hands played at a disadvantage are 80% and the player advantage 20% AND those disadvantages are bigger across the board. So now the player needs a much bigger spread to win, like 1-10 or more. And that larger spread is easy to detect.

So one of the ways to play smarter in 2020's is to escape at least some of the negative counts. Say you exit and don't play all negative counts of -2 or -3 (true count). Now that ration is back down to where the player can use a smaller spread and still overcome the negative counts.

So that is one example of things that have changed for the worse and something you can do differently offset it. there are many others

Unfortunately, there aren't that many good books out that talk about current conditions, and how to play differently to beat those conditions. Norm Wattenberger's Modern Blackjack is one and another that I like is Advanced Tactics in Casino Play by Abram Alexander (published 2011).

One place that you used to be able to find out some of these things....things players are doing today that allows them to overcome some of the negative changes is on various forums. But unfortunately most forums have turned into trolling and games and there is less and less of that kind of sharing information.

 

Thank you for sharing your trade secrete, and detailed explanations. You indicated: "one of the ways to play smarter in 2020's is to escape at least some of the negative counts."

"Wonging in and out", if can be done freely, of course is one good way to avoid negative counts. But in many casinos, "Wonging in and out" may not be possible or practical because of the No-Mid-Shoe Entry rule. Question: How to reduce the loss to the minimum at negative counts if "Wonging in and out" is not practicable under the circumstances?

Foods for thought:

1. How about learning a lot more of blackjack deviation indices for negative counts (in comparison with only learning the lone 3 negative counts in Illustrious 18 as some card counting gurus have promoted)?
2. How about borrowing some of the standard plays from Spanish 21 when the true count is -4 or lower? (Spanish 21 in essence is a blackjack game starting out with a true count of -4.33.)

 

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and insights about the evolution of blackjack and the challenges faced by card counters today. Indeed, the game has changed over time, and players need to adapt to the new realities if they want to be successful. As you mentioned, learning new skills and playing smarter rather than harder is essential. While the days of the single-deck or double-deck blackjack may be gone, there are still ways to gain an edge and increase your chances of winning. By staying informed, practicing, and mastering new card counting techniques, players can improve their skills and take advantage of profitable betting opportunities, even in today's 6 or 8 deck blackjack games.

 

Think Outside the Box of Hi-Lo

In the 1960s, high-power stick-shift sport cars zipped thru highways and byways, leaving everyone else in the dust. At about the same time, blackjack became the most popular game in casinos. Single-deck blackjack games moved so fast in casinos that card counting systems, like Hi-Lo, were developed to take advantage of the fast moving SD blackjack pitch games.
What have happened since? Stick-shift cars and single-deck blackjack have mostly disappeared. In their place, cars with automatic transmission rule the roads and six or eight-deck blackjack shoe games over-populate the casinos.

Question: If stick-shift cars no longer perform adequately on today’s roadways, can counting systems developed in the era of fast moving SD blackjack, like Hi-Lo, still perform adequately in today’s slow moving six or eight-deck blackjack shoe games?

Answer: OMG, @ ! % &// ??? How dare you question a timeless system like Hi-Lo???

 

I have a very different opinion that you moraine. I hope we can have a respectful discussion, sharing ideas, thoughts and reasons that doesn't dissolve into animosity and name calling, like so often occur on these forums.

A level 1 count like hi-lo is actually not a great match for single deck because with single deck playing efficiency is very important. Hi-low has a low playing efficiency and higher betting correlation, which becomes more important with more decks and more cards cut out of play. That is why hi-lo was quickly replaced by Hi-opt1, hi-opt2, Revere Point count, Zen and other level 2 and even level 3 counts back in the 70's and 80's when single deck was still plentiful. They had much higher playing efficiency which is most important with single deck. Playing efficiency was so important that a player with a count that had a strong playing efficiency could win by playing decisions alone, not even spreading (flat betting).

But as they added more decks, and really it was the more cards cut off that was the main culprit, playing efficiency became less and less important. That is why the number of playing deviations dropped to 20 or so for most players (Don Schlesinger's Illustrious 18 and maybe a couple more). It was the betting correlation that became much more important with 4,6,8 decks, so hi-lo is actually better suited for 6 and 8 deck shoe games. As a matter of fact, a player could cut out all the playing variations and just focus on betting and there would not be that much of a drop off. That is actually the basis behind card counters basic strategy.

I began my career playing 5 and a half years in Atlantic City, which was all 8 deck games and the Borgata which was 6 decks at the time. Then I moved to Las Vegas where I continue to play mostly 6 deck games, even though there is some double deck available. A lot of the double deck games are what we call "counter traps" meaning they are watched very closely, so I play mostly 6 decks. It has been 20 years now that I have played almost exclusively 6 and 8 deck games and a level one count works just fine because playing efficiency is much less important with these games. You win with bet spread (betting correlation) and a level one works great.

But let me say this. What count, a level 1 like hi-lo or K-O or a level 2 like RPC, Zen, really makes little difference in shoe games (6 and 8 decks). If a player wants to improve his game and win rate there are things he can do that make a much bigger difference that switching counts. I named one of those things earlier, in escaping at least some of the really negative counts, which is more commonly known as wonging out. That is just one. There are other things that make a much bigger difference that changing counts.

And really, the name of the game today is much less about the actual counting and figuring ways to be able to play and keep being welcome back to play. That is where some thinking outside the box really can make a difference. Here is a quote from Stanford Wong that has stuck with me: "Card counting is easy. A monkey can be taught to count cards. The hard part if finding a way to apply it and keep being welcome back to play".

 

Completely Agreed! Now let's get down to the business of "Play Smarter, Not Harder." My earlier post was captioned: "Think Outside the Box of Hi-Lo." The earlier post would have been better if it were captioned: "Think Outside the Box of Hi-Lo and the Like."

You mentioned quite a few counting systems in addition to Hi-Lo. To me, all those systems are more or less alike. They differ from each other in their agility (or clumsiness when examined differently) in real life execution under different circumstances. Using anyone of them, more or less is like driving a stick-shift car, which driving could be pretty enjoyable in light traffic, but could also be damned tiring in a stop-and-go traffic jam. As you indicated, some of systems mentioned fell into disuse when casino added decks to the blackjack games. The Level 2 or 3 system which may be the equivalent of an 8-speed roadster went first when the casino began to use shoes even though a shoe then had four decks only. Hi-Lo, being a simpler one may still be functional today because casinos uses only six or eight decks in a shoe. Question: What would happen to Hi-Lo if casinos begin to use 9 or 10-deck shoes?

Answer: Don't worry. Casinos never need to use 9 decks or more because using 8 decks with 30% cutoff can deprive every surviving Hi-Lo card counter a living already.

You also indicated: "But as they added more decks, and really it was the more cards cut off that was the main culprit, playing efficiency became less and less important. That is why the number of playing deviations dropped to 20 or so for most players . . . ." You are right, but only half-right. I believe the biggest reason that most players play with less than 20 or so deviations is because they were misled into believing knowing and playing with more than the 18 whatchamacallit indices is a meaningless exercise.

Deviation indices are useful not only for playing efficiency, they are also very useful for camouflage purpose. Some lesser used deviation indices, such as the index for hitting A-A vs. A or hitting 16 vs. 4, is good not only for the bankroll, but is also good for fooling everyone at the table. If being welcomed back or not is the worry, the counter (or a monkey as Stanford Wong might have so termed) should THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX on how best to use deviations for camouflage too.