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Baccarat PPPP bet B Update

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by fathead, Sep 16, 2021.

  1. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    When fathead gets back with results i will show you how to bet into 5 shoe results with 3 bets, if groups of 4 can hit a decent % groups of 5 will beat this game 99.9% i will steak my reputation on it
     
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  2. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Myrtle, to give you an update, I worked mainly on paper today, making sure that I was able to duplicate your Even/Odd bet results (OEO, OEE, EOO, and so on). I ended up creating a decision tree which worked well. On paper I played through all the possible combinations (as well as shoe 4003 for good measure) and it matched up perfectly. Now I need to start coding this. I will begin to work on that Wednesday.
     
  3. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Excellent work Ravi.
     
  4. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Excellent stuff myrtle, I always knew you could do this. Excellent read, you mentioned later post requiring 200 plus hands of baccarat. If you like I can give you 350 plus continuous hands( played ) and I think I still have the day book with the 500 plus continuous hands played one session . It’s rng stadium but should not matter really. I could have lied and said it was one shoe after another and none would have been the wiser.
    Let me know thanks.
    Look forward to more of you and fatheads correspondence. Cheers
     
  5. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Okay fathead you are the main man , this is important to me because i can no longer receive Evoultion gaming in Canada, i have been playing since 2007 using 888 casino and others that use Evolution gaming as there provider, 10 days ago i go online and could get anything but evolution from 888 site, talked to support and they said maybe next year but right now its a no go and then i find out the Canadian GOV which owns Ontario Gaming Corporation which owns OLG a site for lotterys and sports betting now have live dealers online and have a contract with Evolution gaming and have cut streaming from out side from any site using Evolution, being a hit and run guy i love to go from table to table and this is no longer possible with what is offered from the casinos i use,OLG has 2 BAC tables during busy times and 1 table running the rest of time, so now it is time to sit down for long peroids and needing a good non stop bet selection
     
  6. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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  7. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    I understand and will do my best on this. It should not be too hard to code now that I have the decision tree but you never know until you get in there. I like what I see so far, a very unique strategy.
     

  8. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    What is (decision tree)? if you think this is good and you trust it from your results the next level which is the last will be better, this level is important for me, i never bet the 4 groups because the 5s are better
     
  9. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    I trust your experience. Looking forward to the 5's if they are next level.

    The decision tree just makes it simpler for me.

    No Bet
    |
    Bet Chop
    |
    Chop Win = Bet Chop
    Chop Loss = Bet Repeat
    |
    Chop Win = Bet Repeat
    Chop Loss = Bet Chop
    Repeat Win = Bet Repeat
    Repeat Loss = Bet Chop

    P x = No Bet
    B B = Chop Win (O)
    B P = Chop Loss (E)
    P P = Chop Win (O)
     
  10. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Nice.
    And thanks myrtle
    If you can create this a program for a mobile app, this would be perfect at a 20 baccarat stadium style . Similar to this , not exactly to myrtle method, I used years ago to some good effect, trouble was one wrong data entry as there are a lot of entries you catch yourself out. At a 20 seconds stadium it often becomes murder.

    But if you can do it as a phone app, real game changer imho.

    Fathead if you want 300-600 continuous hands to trial on let me know I post them, they are one session from hand 1 to hand 300+ And from hand 1 to hand 600+ , rng, stadium games. They are from my marathon trial of a method I’m currently using. Let me know thanks.
     
  11. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    I appreciate the offer but I already have over 4000 live shoes to test on now. I prefer hand dealt shoes anyway. Thanks, though.
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
  12. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Myrtle, another update. I was able to successfully code the bet selection today. I can run it on one shoe or a group of shoes. If I run all 4062 shoes as one big shoe it loses at the normal rate, after commission. It lost at -1.23% which is normal house edge (-2632 units flat betting). The worst loss string was 18 in a row. As we suspected, two's were its weakness, some shoes really got hammered with a string of twos or multiple strings.

    I think you were more concerned with win percentage over 3 shoe blocks. I will pull out some samples and give you an idea about that.

    One interesting fact that I just noticed this evening. Did you know that if the group of 4 begins with P as the "No Bet" that the three bets that follow are always BPP? Conversely if the group of 4 begins with B as the "No Bet" the next 3 bets that follow are always PBB. I wish I had noticed that sooner, it would have made my coding even simpler.

    P x
    P B
    B P
    B P

    B x
    B P
    P B
    P B

    I will give you another update tomorrow with the 3 shoe block samples with win percentage. Thanks.
     
  13. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Yes i did know 2s were the problem, i tested it in short term and found the problem, that is why i do not bet with this group,i never did any long term testing on 4s because i found that 5s fix the bad 2s,I used 5s for hit and run and was outstanding , the percentage difference between the 2 groups is different, if i can get a rough idea (PERCENTAGE) of the 4s it would be great, yes the BPP, PBB i knew, but i wanted you to understand how it worked before the next step or else we would be going back and forth for hours trying to explain, you will see what i mean later,
    THX
     
  14. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    I understand.

    Well over the whole 4062 shoes the Win percentage is 50.03% but this varies wildly throughout the testing. Here are some examples.

    Shoe Block, Percentage

    1-3, 49.37%
    4-6, 42.21
    7-9, 57.72
    10-12, 52.23

    1815-1817, 41.03%
    1818-1820, 51.9
    1821-1823, 52.76

    4003-4005, 52.63%
    4006-4008, 46.32
    4009-4011, 48.97

    Do you want maybe 100 blocks as a sample? How many examples did you want to look at?
     
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  15. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    So fathead thank you so much, what i am seeing here is it really does not dip below 40%, is this correct and if so using the proper MM this would show at the very least a small profit treading around the 40%, not that i will bet this, just wondering,no need to go further with this group,The last 3 days been sitting for 3 shoes using groups of 5, all 3 days stopped after 2 shoes, goal was reached, from the shoes live play and the shoes i combined over the past i have seen only 7 in a row on either side twice, there were 89 times 3 in a row came and twice it reached 7 any other time you would have won a unit within 3 bets, i do not need to hit above 50% for i use a soft neg pro, so far this 5 thing has been very solid sitting for atleast 2 shoes.
     
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  16. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Fathead have to step out for a bit, i will write some things out when i get back
     
  17. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Individual shoes drop well below 40% but by the end of 3 shoes it seems to land at 40% - 60% wins.

    Shoe, Percentage

    1815, 20.41%

    The above shoe had 16 losses in a row if you had the bad luck to start at hand #1.
     
  18. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    No worries.
     
  19. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    upload_2021-11-19_15-45-31.png


    Fathead this is groups of 5,there are 16 combinations, 2 groups have all even numbers when added and 14 groups will have atleast 1 odd number when added, with the 4 groups we were betting 3 into 4 now we are betting 3 into 5, there are many ways to use this, i like to go for the one hit out of 3 when i can get a new table right away like i was before Evolution was banned from Canada, yesterday received 2 phone calls which were funeral related and going to be side lined for a few days so right now i can not go into detail but you can figure it out for now and i will get back later, notice first column number 6 from top (forgot to number groups) this group all 2s but when tappered result comes 212 added =235 eoo, oh one more point i had time for 2 shoes today and i used groups of 4 but added double entry, i used an x for first 2 shoe results then went for the odd numbers, went very well 2 shoe plus 20 units maybe just lucky
     
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  20. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Okay, thanks. I will do my best to follow your logic. Looks like you are scoring them twice, scoring the decision then scoring the scoring ... in real time.

    Sorry to hear about the deaths. Too many unnecessary deaths the last couple of years. Take care.
     

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