Roulette Progressions explained

I've wanted to make a thread about this for a long time -
I actually wanted to make it more visual friendly with a video and fancy graphs (laughs)
but I don't seem to have the time for that.
I haven't seen the value of progressions explained properly so my goal was to do just that -
for the reader's benefit - and to explain it a bit in a way that is easier to understand and gives
the reader more info than "progressions are bad" which is what we usually read on the "expert"'s sites.

So to begin quickly - flat betting. Because we have to compare a progression and how it works to flat betting.... and this is easy to do and show.
So flat betting -
I'm going to concentrate on three values and give an example that I'm going to run off while posting this.
The first thing to think of is a cone - the "center" line of the cone being the "house edge expected value"
because this is one of the most important things - it's what we have to win against. Most people would think the 0 or even (+ - 0) line is relevant and it's not.
The center of the cone will be a line that extends from 0 at spin 0 to wherever the "house edge expected value" is at the end of the test. This is where the casino makes it's profit.
The top of the cone will be the best possible outcome that a player can have (again, based on the specific test that I will run flat betting) and the lower line of the cone will be worst possible outcome that the player can have. As you'll see - right in the middle (or close to) will be the center of the cone or "house edge expected value"
I'll start with 1,000 spins - then do 5,000 spins and then 10,000 spins.
Why ? Because the "cone" will change position and you'll see how over more and more spins it becomes impossible for a player to be above 0. Without the images you can picture the cone shape unchanging - but the center of the cone moves lower and lower over more and more spins - until the "top" of the cone is also negative. So flat betting - even if a player picked the very best possible number (or the number that had shown the most during that time) they would still be in the hole.

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So, as we can see - being between the green and yellow line (a profit) isn't that impossible.
The house edge expected value is right about in the middle of the "cone".
Now let's see the 5,000 spin chart
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Now, we can start to see the effect more clearly. The most house edge expected value
still remains in the middle of the best you can expect to do and the worst you can expect to do
but the entire cone has dropped - the "profit" section of the chart - between the green and yellow
lines is getting smaller and smaller.
Now for 10,000 spins
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Again, the cone drops more and more over time and the green to yellow area
decreases for the player.
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Now, note the tiny area between the green (profit) line and the yellow (+-0) line.
If we keep going, our "best possible" played number flat betting won't be able to
overcome the limits of the "cone" in the graph. Even with a time machine that would
let you see what the hottest number was over the entire run and then going back to
play it - you would still end negative.
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This is exactly why people will say that flat betting over a large number of spins
makes it impossible to win, and they are right.
The shape of the cone never changes, it only rotates lower because the red center line
which is the house edge expected value continues to drop more and more below
the profit line over time.
Now - this isn't meant to be a "downer", it is only fact.
The answer to this problem comes in a few forms, one of which is a progression.
That evil word that means failure every time ? No.
A progression Expands the cone in such a way that while the red line will still
remain in the center, the green and blue lines will expand on each side of it.
A losing method will lose MORE with a progression, a winning session will win MORE.

They will also say that without winning above expected - without being able to pick what numbers
you play better than 1:37 (0) or 1:38 (00) you are doomed, and this is also true.
I would hope by now we all know how to pick numbers to achieve better results than this.
As the thread grows I'll explain more but wanted to get this posted and show how the
house edge works (over time) and how it affects even the best player - even if they are on
the best numbers to play.

There is one key thing to remember if this post brings you down (laughs).
The "cone" begins fresh each time you start a new session. This is actually important to consider.
Although a lifetime of small sessions = one large session, you have to remember that the cone starts fresh when you sit down to play - regardless of your past wins or losses.
As to the topic of this thread - I will get into that as well. Showing how a aggressive progression
affects the cone - without breaking any rules that are set in stone.

 

Here's where your wrong:

You're not properly accounting for the expected value of your bets when using your progression. If you don't have the edge over the casino, then all of your bets have the same negative expectation, just at different values. The expected value of your bets in the long term will be the sum of all your bets x the house edge.

Now I also see that you mention that your cone starts over with each new session. Actually this isn't really true. What about the sessions where you don't win? What about the sessions where you're never ahead at any point during the session and you lose big? Do you just choose to forget about them?



Over time, the sum of the amount lost in your short sessions will become a larger value than the sum of all of your winning sessions, leaving your cone bankroll depleted and preventing you from ever breaking even again.

If you can find a way to actually get the edge, then the best progression is always to bet an amount that represents a percentage of your bankroll. For example edge/expectation. This enables the player to win vastly more money than an up as you lose progression could ever win!

 

Thanks Turbo!

 

So what happens to the cone if the progression is only binary? What if you do have a knack for selecting a more active number over an inactive number in your sessions? If I were to only select a single number to gamble, say my anniversary, and just bet that number for 500 sessions of 300 spins each per session. If I flat bet that single number, it would have times of being hot and times of being cold. The results would be like your cone shaped graph, wouldn't it?

Now what would happen to the cone graph if I added just one thing to the single selected number method? What if I bet the minimum allowed while I was in a phase where I was getting spin sequences larger than 35 spins between wins, and betting three times the minimum allowed bet while in sequences less than 35 between wins? In this case I have a progression of two steps and only two different values. It takes a conclusion based on situational awareness to pick when to use either bet.

It's not easy to build test sims based on short termed phases of effectiveness where 35 spins is the borderline between beating the house's edge or not. What's more interesting, if that capacity where obtainable, would the number 35 be the best line in the conditions of a best choice? There must be a way to test for a base line value that's the best. It could be as simple as 37 or 38 spins respectively. It could be two times 37/38 because a triple valued bet makes up for two times the losses. I do know this much. You need 9 winning bets out of 300 spins of flat betting to break even. It's not easy to bet on a potentially hot number only to have it go cold as soon as you start betting on it. Your losses are at three times the base value. You must have a limit on how long you will tolerate the change in the conditions. A simulation test platform must have a consideration for changes that upset the expectations wanted. The good programmer must have a conditional trigger built into the app that exits back to minimum when the conditions change to unfavorable. This capability must have a label of some kind referring to "knowing." Sometimes the hottest number in 300 spins has a very cold streak yet is still the hottest number. A good simulation should know how to get back on the tripled bet with that consideration also.

So I'm interested in a binary progression that utilizes "knowing." Have you ever been interested in that?

 

Again, most of everything that you said is true - except that it doesn't have anything to do with what I posted.
My post was flat betting a single number without a progression, and showing over time how the house edge affects your ability to end the run in profit.
And re-starting the cone where the last session ended is absolutely true.
You can argue that each spin is independent from the last but can't seem to see that each session you play is also independent from the last session. It's exactly the same and you can't have it both ways.
In the very first graph of 1,000 spins - you can clearly see that even without a system or method - you have just about the same chance of being in profit as you do in loss because your results will be "somewhere" inside of that cone. When the player would start the next 1,000 spins - a new cone begins on their ending balance from the last session (win or loss).

True, I've never argued that. Basing the progression on your bankroll - with an advantage - and growing your bankroll as you play. That's how you build a fortune over time. Which is also why I don't like the theory of betting HUGE just because you have an edge ("someone someone" said to do that) and I prefer to take my wins over time until I'm ready to move up to the next level. The progression I use is based on my bankroll and the edge that I know that I have.

ps/ I was expecting a "coneheads" meme instead of the dog safety cone but ok. Next time lol.

 

TG,

Is your progression up-after-a-win or up-after-a-loss?

 

In this example, I've placed a green "box" where the player ended his session after 900 or so spins.
And below - this is the chart showing his/her next session "cone".
As you'll see - it's going to take a very very long time for the "new" orange house
edge expected value to ever reach the actual +-0 profit/loss line.

 

Always up after a win.
Betting more after a loss in simply a way to dig your hole deeper and faster.

 

You have taken some effort to make this post. Well done.

Some clarifications. You are assuming that the green box is always going to end in a zone which is between red and green. But that box could also end in between red and blue, making your argument invalid.

Also, I am not able to understand why would always up after a win progression should work while betting more after a loss will dig hole deeper and faster. Does that takes an underlying assumption that your losses and wins normally appears in bunches?

 

Betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey.

 

No, I can increase bets after a win because the wins are more or less predictable.
The wins "will" happen and the progression handles any mistake I may have made.

 

TG - Are you planning on progression examples for the cone graphs with your method in mind?

 

@TG >> I'm not asking for specifics but as far as the progression goes, using nickle chips would be fine I assume? In other words, using DOLLAR chips would be better (easier, quicker), worse or it makes little difference?

Ken

 

You chose not to answer the first clarification question.

 

Toofanexpress said: ↑
Does that takes an underlying assumption that your losses and wins normally appears in bunches?

Toofan, is right. The only justification for increasing your bet after a win is if your wins, for some unknown reason, come in bunches. Otherwise there is no explanation why raise after a win and not after a loss or whatever.

 

I thought I pretty much answered it in my reply.
My "green box" will always be somewhere in the positive section - exactly where I can't tell you though, it varies. I'm not perfect in how I select what numbers to play so I have to work to at least be on a few of the best ones if not the top one. But regardless my session will always end in the positive so I don't have to assume that's where it will be.

You can start as small as the table limits allow as long as the progression you use is aggressive. 1-2-3-4 types don't work all the time like a more aggressive one will (ie. 1-2-4-8 or 1-5-10-20)
On the Parx site I've been using 5-25-100-500 simply because that's the limits they allow (as long as the min bet on the table is 250 per spin). They contacted me finally and fixed the game so I'm back at it there lol. That's a story for the other thread though.

 

When you say up as you win progression, do you increase the bets on all numbers that you are betting or only the number that wins.

 

The wins will happen as you say but losses will also happen, in other words the distribution of the wins vs losses registry must have clusters/bunches of wins and losses together in order to justify your claim about positive progressions.
But if that was the case then it would make more sense to stop betting after a loss and begin after a win, you could even win by flat bets.
The thing is that we don't know for sure how many times we are going to win, let alone in which order those wins are going to happen.
Therefore I declare your claim about positive progressions as fallacious!

The progression alone cannot guarantee any safety, it could improve a good bet selection or worsen a bad one.
In other words it's just a magnifier of what you have already at hand.

I was wondering the same thing, could you explain please?

 

There are no need for "clusters" of wins. I only need to win better than the math odds for the payout, which is 35:1
My "claims" are perfectly valid - any time you have a advantage, a progression makes total sense and is the best way to play - even the "nay-sayers" have admitted this - because it's fact.

If you stop after a loss, you won't be on the bet to "win" when it shows. You can't win flat betting regardless of what you do - explained in detail above.

I know that I'm going to win - that's all I need to know. The math verifies this. Random guarantees this. A progression and the bet selection exploit this. My testing also verifies my "claim".

Irrelevant.

I said that above - a progression expands the "cone" - making a winning method win more and a losing method lose more. "In other words it's just a magnifier of what you have already at hand". In other words. I said this above.

Absolutely not. I've given entirely too much info already and it's already been posted for anyone to read in the various threads here. Do your own testing and work through ideas and you will come to the same conclusions and results without having to read it from me.

 

True.

Blue,

It's just betting hot numbers with a progression. It's pretty simple to figure out. There aren't any magical steps missing that make it work.
It is better than just betting on cold numbers.

The progression is the simplest part to winning that a gambler has to decide... if...if...if they have the edge. It requires little thought, and everything that really even needs to be said about it can be written on one page. It's nothing more than simple mindless math. That's it.