Roulette Progressive stakes and "rare events" - One number bets

Hello, everyone! New member here. I've been studying roulette for several weeks now. I knew about some methods to sport bets which are based in betting against rare events, against "black swans" (for those who read Taleb's books). Looking at results from online casinos I tried to understand what would represent a rare event in roulette.

The natural conclusion was: "it's rare for a number to go a lot of rounds without appearing" so betting in one number that is missing for many rounds should be profitable, but beyond the gambler's fallacy that this statement brings, the question is: who much is "a lot" in this context?

The most rounds I saw a number go without appearing was 290, but normally, a cold number comes out in less than 200 rounds. Taking this into consideration, I have been testing a simple progressive staking system, betting on a number and doubling the stake every 18 losses. I usually set a stoploss since doubling indiscriminately can lead to the loss of your entire bankroll.

Have you ever used similar systems? Do you think it is profitable? How many rounds have you seen a number go without coming out?
Thanks!

 

I think most people here tried this one way or another...it's definitely NOT profitable. Stay away from it ASAP ! And how many rounds....I forgot the exact number but more than 700 spins ...

Go read/study about how random works

 

Hi, Guys I use sleepers but after they've woke, small profits but always positive results, chasing sleepers is costly and destroys profits and bankroll.

 

I've noticed that latelly! It makes sense because: If it's already rare a number sllep for a long period, it's even more rare "sleep twice", yet it falls in gambler's fallacy, it's not commom to happen. I've never saw this happen, but I'm have not many screen hours. Did you guys ever seen that happen? If yes, for many rounds?
Thanks!

 

Another possibility I've thinking about is to bet on the repeat of a number. We know that soon or later a number will come twice in a row, and it happens a lot (usually once in 50 rounds, never seen more than 100 rounds without a repeater, but again, I'm new at this world). So, after 50 or 100 rounds with no repeaters, we start to bet on each number that comes, doubling the stake after 18 rounds (always setting a stop loss to not comprimise the bankroll). The propabilities are the same as the first method, but the event is different. What do you guys think?
Thanks again