Baccarat Proof that Jae's OG System is Validated

If Jae were to do extensive charting with his OG approach and ONLY play when there is a substantial imbalance and win one session then stop. He is more likely to succeed. Right now with -20 as entry point is NOT substantial IMO.

 

I know that I must take out the vig. This will be done with exact figures.

BTW, with Jae's method here, a win is exactly 20 units minus the vig.

 

In my opinion he should hunt for Banker dominations or even the global effect of Banker strong side.

The way it is now he is banking on a change after a run of bad luck.

 

Opinions and assholes everybody has got one. But here's one for you Craps. For fun.

I just lost 2000 units playing OG! Yup. I just happen to have about 700 shoes already set up when I tested the Toddler's 12 step. Gets clipped about 15% of shoes. So I just went to the master sheet and looked for some really imbalanced shoes. I put 3 of them together and played them out. By the time they hit right around 100 unit bets it got clipped for 2000 units and another 1000 for commission to lose 3000 units. If I backed it up to account for 2000 units included commission it would have failed in the beginning of 3rd shoe near 90 units bet.

The interesting thing (to me) was that the 3 shoes were not consecutive live shoes 1075, 1081 and 1089. There were 6, and 8 shoes respectively in between. If I had played them in order it would have resolved. The moral of the story is that even though I am sure I could cherry pick some more losers it won't be easy to lose 2000 units.

They're in Excel so can't be posted. Grrrr.

 

Just ran a test on the function to get the next hand's result of Banker or Player based on 51% / 49% ratio.

Now's the time to get me an exact percentage. Otherwise I will use these integers.

Don't complain later.

 

Interesting and true to life. I confess to average, losing my 5 Marty winning 8 units a day every once in 5 1/2 days. You apparently do not have a CLUE what that really is. Those numbers did not come by chance. It is through hard work. It is the most BALANCED point for the House to go very near to 50/50 with me and I erk out a tad more than 50/50 for those residual wins.
I buy your example but I can tell you if I can win more than 2000x3, in the long run where is the problem? What if there are no 12 step loss in the next 700 shoes waiting for big imbalances. You are talking about the Solar System as the Universe.

 

Out of curiosity craps, no judgements by the way. What is your unit value in your Marty progression? Your base unit.

 

Plan A is $25 winning 8
Plan B is $25 winning 10
Plan C is $50 winning 8
Plan D is $50 winning 10
Plan E is $100 winning 8
Plan F is $500 winning 8
Plan goes down 1 notch after losses for the PREVIOUS plan is recouped.
Roughly 25,000 master bankroll
I experienced a lot of 10 or above winning days in a row.
Take 1 week break in between losses.
Last step of the 5 Marty is 17 units instead of 16 whether it is on B or P

 

OK, this checks out so far and will compile when converted to an application.

Code:

on mouseUp
   global virtualBets, realBets, betValue, proceedWithReal, bankersVigTotal

   put "continue" into keepGoing
   
   repeat while keepGoing = "continue"
      put pickTheNextWinner("xxx") into playerBankerResult
      if proceedWithReal = "false" then
         if playerBankerResult = "B" then
            add betValue to virtualBets
            add 1 to betValue
         end if
         if playerBankerResult = "P" then
            subtract betValue from virtualBets
         end if
      end if
      
      if proceedWithReal = "true" then
         if playerBankerResult = "B" then
            add betValue to realBets 
            add (betValue * .05) to bankersVigTotal -- here is where the vig is added up
            add 1 to betValue
         end if
         if playerBankerResult = "P" then
            subtract betValue from realBets 
         end if
      end if
      
      if virtualBets <= -2000 then 
         put "true" into proceedWithReal 
      end if
      
      if realBets <= -2000 then 
         put "don't continue" into keepGoing
         exit repeat
      end if
   end repeat
end mouseUp

 

We have telemetry:

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- 
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- 
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- 
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- 
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- 
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -900 -- 
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- 
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- 
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- 
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- 
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1400 -- 
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- 
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1500 -- 
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -2400 -- 
19 bets so far, Real bets total = 900 -- Vig so far = 45 -- Banker @ -- 1000
20 bets so far, Real bets total = -100 -- Vig so far = 45 -- Player @ -- 1000
21 bets so far, Real bets total = 900 -- Vig so far = 95 -- Banker @ -- 1100
22 bets so far, Real bets total = 2000 -- Vig so far = 150 -- Banker @ -- 1200

 

There, I can test the hell out of sessions. I could add the same telemetry to the virtual section.

I have this sim crapping out at 300 hands. I can make that 500 or 1,000.

How many hands can a person play in a day?

Oh, that's right. You can just pick up where you left off the next day.

 

Hmm?

I guess I will need to add telemetry to the virtual start.

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- 
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- 
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- 
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- 
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- 
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -800 -- 
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -900 -- 
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- 
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- 
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- 
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- 
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -800 -- 
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- 
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 900 -- 
19 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1900 -- 
20 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- 
21 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- 
22 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- 
23 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -400 -- 
24 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- 
25 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- 
26 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- 
27 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- 
28 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- 
29 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2300 -- 
30 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 3900 -- 
31 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 5600 -- 
32 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 3800 -- 
33 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2000 -- 
34 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- 
35 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2000 -- 
36 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 3900 -- 
37 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 5900 -- 
38 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 8000 -- 
39 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 10200 -- 
40 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 12500 -- 
41 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 10100 -- 
42 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 7700 -- 
43 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 10100 -- 
44 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 7600 -- 
45 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 5100 -- 
46 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 7600 -- 
47 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 5000 -- 
48 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 7600 -- 
49 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 10300 -- 
50 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 13100 -- 
51 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 16000 -- 
52 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 19000 -- 
53 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 22100 -- 
54 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18900 -- 
55 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 22100 -- 
56 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
57 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 15500 -- 
58 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
59 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 15400 -- 
60 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
61 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 15300 -- 
62 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
63 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 15200 -- 
64 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
65 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 15100 -- 
66 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
67 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 15000 -- 
68 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
69 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 14900 -- 
70 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18800 -- 
71 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 22800 -- 
72 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18700 -- 
73 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 22800 -- 
74 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 27000 -- 
75 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 31300 -- 
76 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35700 -- 
77 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 31200 -- 
78 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35700 -- 
79 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 40300 -- 
80 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35600 -- 
81 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 40300 -- 
82 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 45100 -- 
83 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 40200 -- 
84 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35300 -- 
85 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 40200 -- 
86 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35200 -- 
87 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 40200 -- 
88 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35100 -- 
89 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 40200 -- 
90 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 45400 -- 
91 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 40100 -- 
92 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 34800 -- 
93 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 29500 -- 
94 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 34800 -- 
95 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 29400 -- 
96 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 24000 -- 
97 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 29400 -- 
98 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 23900 -- 
99 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 29400 -- 
100 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 23800 -- 
101 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 18200 -- 
102 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 23800 -- 
103 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 29500 -- 
104 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35300 -- 
105 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 29400 -- 
106 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35300 -- 
107 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 41300 -- 
108 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 35200 -- 
109 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 41300 -- 
110 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 47500 -- 
111 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 53800 -- 
112 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 60200 -- 
113 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 53700 -- 
114 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 47200 -- 
115 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 53700 -- 
116 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 47100 -- 
117 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 53700 -- 
118 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 60400 -- 
119 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 53600 -- 
120 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 60400 -- 
121 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 67300 -- 
122 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 74300 -- 
123 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 67200 -- 
124 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 74300 -- 
125 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 67100 -- 
126 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 59900 -- 
127 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 52700 -- 
128 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 59900 -- 
129 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 67200 -- 
130 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 59800 -- 
131 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 67200 -- 
132 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 59700 -- 
133 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 67200 -- 
134 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 74800 -- 
135 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 67100 -- 
136 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 59400 -- 
137 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 51700 -- 
138 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 44000 -- 
139 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 36300 -- 
140 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 44000 -- 
141 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 36200 -- 
142 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 28400 -- 
143 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 36200 -- 
144 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 28300 -- 
145 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 20400 -- 
146 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 28300 -- 
147 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 20300 -- 
148 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 12300 -- 
149 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 4300 -- 
150 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -3700 -- 
151 bets so far, Real bets total = -8000 -- Vig so far = 0Player @ -- 8000 for next bet

 

OK, it looks pretty good now.

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- Banker @ -- 300 for next bet
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Banker @ -- 500 for next bet
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -800 -- Player @ -- 500 for next bet
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Banker @ -- 600 for next bet
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 700 for next bet
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1000 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- Player @ -- 800 for next bet
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1000 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Player @ -- 900 for next bet
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1000 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2000 -- Banker @ -- 1100 for next bet
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 3100 -- Banker @ -- 1200 for next bet
19 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 4300 -- Banker @ -- 1300 for next bet
20 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 3000 -- Player @ -- 1300 for next bet
21 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 4300 -- Banker @ -- 1400 for next bet
22 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2900 -- Player @ -- 1400 for next bet
23 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1500 -- Player @ -- 1400 for next bet
24 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2900 -- Banker @ -- 1500 for next bet
25 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1400 -- Player @ -- 1500 for next bet
26 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2900 -- Banker @ -- 1600 for next bet
27 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 4500 -- Banker @ -- 1700 for next bet
28 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 6200 -- Banker @ -- 1800 for next bet
29 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 4400 -- Player @ -- 1800 for next bet
30 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2600 -- Player @ -- 1800 for next bet
31 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- Player @ -- 1800 for next bet
32 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- Player @ -- 1800 for next bet
33 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- Banker @ -- 1900 for next bet
34 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2700 -- Banker @ -- 2000 for next bet
35 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 700 -- Player @ -- 2000 for next bet
36 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2700 -- Banker @ -- 2100 for next bet
37 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 600 -- Player @ -- 2100 for next bet
38 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1500 -- Player @ -- 2100 for next bet
39 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -3600 -- Player @ -- 2100 for next bet
40 bets so far, Real bets total = 2100 -- Vig so far = 105 -- Banker @ -- 2200 for next bet

 

Does the telemetry suggest that the sim is playing it right?

 

I must be missing something here. Is there a rule to make the bets go down?

Is there a rule to stay at 1 unit for a certain number of the first virtual bets?

 

I honestly don’t know what’s going on. I don’t know what your coding means as I don’t code. When the series ends at +1, it resets.

 

You can tell what's going on in the telemetry for each line.

"1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet"

"1 bets so far" means that it is the first hand

"Virtual bets total =" means that the number to follow is the running total so far for virtual bets.

"Player " means that Player hit for that hand

"@ -- 100 for next bet" means that the next bet value is shown to you before the next hand.

 

I thought you guys use $100 units and try to win $2,000 per session?

You start at the virtual -20 that is in fact -$2,000. So when it resolves to +1 unit you are not done at $100 but you are done at +$2,000.

 

Okay, so the 1rst line is correct. Player -100
2nd line is correct because banker wins and it’s back to 0.
But then it gets off. Looks like it’s programmed to just keep going up 100 when bank wins. After line 2, the bet would still just be 100. After line 3 it would still be 100. After line 4 it would still be 100.

 

Well if it’s -20, we stop virtual betting and bet real money until the series resolves. At either 0 or +1. Giving us a 20 or 21 unit win minus commission. That’s our series goal. Our session goal is $20,000.