Baccarat Proof that Jae's OG System is Validated

I get that. I was getting errors in the virtual bet phase that people were pointing out. You showed me how drop downs occur. But they are meaningless in the virtuasl phase as you goal is to get to -20 to trigger.

If I understand this now +1 reached in the virtual phase starts it all over too. In your words it resets.

 

I carry a count and a grind from shoe to shoe.

The shoe often stops in the middle of a grind. I carry it onto the next shoe and even the shoe after until the series is resolved.

as far as tracking... I’ve mentioned this before and it’s sort of a silly thing that we play by ear. If we see -20 and it resolves in that shoe. Sometimes we will see it again, and be able to play it into that shoe and the next. If the shoe ends virtually at -10 or more, I will continue tracking it into the next shoe to see if it goes -20. But if the shoe ends with just a player or two and the counting is -1 or -2. A smaller number. I tend to just ignore that and start fresh.

 

That's interesting. you add the -20 recovery to the +1 and get +21

 

Correct. We add up all of the negative numbers, but we don’t add up the positive 1’s. We don’t track +1 +2 +3.

 

My brain is scrambled. I have to write all this in code.

 

Excel for apps, yikes. ExcelScript is a scripting language based on Visual Basic. That's an extraneous third generation language that requires memory allocation coding. It makes the job a pain in the ass. LiveCode is the most powerful version of x-Talk, a fourth generation language, that compiles in C+ and C++.

It still takes a programmer that includes all the rules. Resetting after +1 is a no brainer. Now I wish I had a brain.

 

I had the first go around at + ten billion.

To be clear it should have a lowered bet value to reach +1 exactly and then it resets, starts over.

 

I need to take a break. I'm going on 70 years old.

 

This cracks me up. People get bent out of shape if I investigate another person's system or method.

So I will re state this. Nobody had presented a working system in the past 20 years. This is a system that has easy to follow rules. So it is easy to program. So it is easy to find out if it has changed the gambling landscape forever.

It's just curiosity. I have the time. I got the cooperation that I needed, making it easy, and I have the skill to program it.

If anyone needs a safe zone like a snowflake then go there and sing Kumbaya to your friends.

 

Let me give you a tip. Casinos are now serious in experimenting with 10 deck shoes and continuous shuffler. Extensive research have found out that these changes promotes MORE volatility. It might not be significant but 1 hand less makes a big difference when someone is going on a hot run. There will be lesser long runs and sequence because of volatility If you flip a coin, there is less volatility making a hot streak sustain longer. With your OG, will less volatility helps? Negative progression just love these new changes. Just yesterday on a continuous shuffler game the board reads 516 Players to 498 Bankers. Most of the time, the figures are pretty close.

 

I have to admit. I hate continuous shufflers. I’ve seen them on blackjack, which obviously makes counting useless. I think I’m in good shape for now as I don’t plan on baccarat being my main source of income too much longer. But if continuous shufflers were implemented in all the casinos that have side bets on baccarat by next year, it’s gonna sting a little... for me.

 

Have you ever for once thought about TIMING your bets instead of going against the run of P's and chops where you can see the B is obviously not doing anything?

 

Is not doing anything? Or has not done anything? LOL. Craps is now playing the guessing game.

 

I shouldn't program once I'm worn out, but I do have it keeping the bets down.

Code:

1 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
2 hands, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
3 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
4 hands, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
5 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
6 hands, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 100 bet
7 hands, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ 100 bet
8 hands, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 100 bet
9 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Banker @ 100 bet
10 hands, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
11 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
12 hands, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
13 hands, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
14 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
15 hands, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 100 bet
16 hands, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ 100 bet
17 hands, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 100 bet
18 hands, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Player @ 200 bet
19 hands, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ 200 bet
20 hands, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Banker @ 200 bet
21 hands, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Player @ 300 bet
22 hands, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- Player @ 300 bet
23 hands, Virtual bets total = -1300 -- Player @ 300 bet
24 hands, Virtual bets total = -1600 -- Player @ 300 bet
25 hands, Virtual bets total = -1900 -- Player @ 300 bet
26 hands, Virtual bets total = -2200 -- Player @ 300 bet
27 hands, Real bets total = -300 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ 300 bet
28 hands, Real bets total = 0 -- Vig so far = 15 -- Banker @ 300 bet
29 hands, Real bets total = -400 -- Vig so far = 15 -- Player @ 400 bet
30 hands, Real bets total = -800 -- Vig so far = 15 -- Player @ 400 bet
31 hands, Real bets total = -1200 -- Vig so far = 15 -- Player @ 400 bet
32 hands, Real bets total = -1600 -- Vig so far = 15 -- Player @ 400 bet
33 hands, Real bets total = -1200 -- Vig so far = 35 -- Banker @ 400 bet
34 hands, Real bets total = -700 -- Vig so far = 60 -- Banker @ 500 bet
35 hands, Real bets total = -1300 -- Vig so far = 60 -- Player @ 600 bet
36 hands, Real bets total = -700 -- Vig so far = 90 -- Banker @ 600 bet
37 hands, Real bets total = 0 -- Vig so far = 125 -- Banker @ 700 bet
38 hands, Real bets total = -800 -- Vig so far = 125 -- Player @ 800 bet
39 hands, Real bets total = -1600 -- Vig so far = 125 -- Player @ 800 bet
40 hands, Real bets total = -800 -- Vig so far = 165 -- Banker @ 800 bet
41 hands, Real bets total = 100 -- Vig so far = 210 -- Banker @ 900 bet
42 hands, Real bets total = 1100 -- Vig so far = 260 -- Banker @ 1000 bet
43 hands, Real bets total = 2200 -- Vig so far = 315 -- Banker @ 1100 bet

Anything wrong with this? the last bet should have been 1000 I think.

 

I mean, it’s sort of why I have a virtual entry point. I guess one of my own fallacies is balance and imbalance. I usually kick in gear after I don’t see bank doing much and it puts me in a situation to recoup money that I didn’t really lose to begin with. At that point, I’m assuming you mean... if I see a bunch of players, to back off and wait for another entry point. Problem with me as a baccarat player is that I’ll admit that I’m not psychic. I don’t have a magical bet selection, and I literally can’t predict shit. Don’t get me wrong, I can guess really good sometimes, but I’m not a long-term good guesser. And while I consider myself lucky financially with the game, I don’t consider myself lucky with picking the next decision. If I saw 12 players in a row, a bank, and ten players in a row. Obviously, my brain is telling me... “dude, this is a player shoe, maybe listen to everyone and stop fighting it or sit it out.” And this is where my anti-luck kicks in. If I stay out, I’d witness a string of banks that I wasn’t on. Haha.

One of the things that some consider a flaw about my pursuit in this game is that I don’t like accepting losses. If I were in a grind and backed off of something based on my intuition or trends that other people see in a shoe that are meaningless to me, and after backing off I see that I would have won the bets I strayed away from, we’ll, there’s no fixing that. I could increase my unit size and sway from my method and possibly ruin my bankroll, or I could accept the loss. And it’s just so hard to accept losses when I know that I can win by sticking it out.

Contradicting myself for a moment about bet selection. I actually do have a few things that work out great. In one bet selection, I believe it was fathead that tested it on 25,000 shoes and if I remember correctly it performed better than anything else he’s ever tested.

But I don’t really want to talk about that.

 

Here is another one without changing any code:

Code:

1 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
2 hands, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
3 hands, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
4 hands, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 100 bet
5 hands, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ 100 bet
6 hands, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 100 bet
7 hands, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Player @ 200 bet
8 hands, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ 200 bet
9 hands, Virtual bets total = -800 -- Player @ 200 bet
10 hands, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- Player @ 200 bet
11 hands, Virtual bets total = -1200 -- Player @ 200 bet
12 hands, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- Banker @ 200 bet
13 hands, Virtual bets total = -1300 -- Player @ 300 bet
14 hands, Virtual bets total = -1600 -- Player @ 300 bet
15 hands, Virtual bets total = -1900 -- Player @ 300 bet
16 hands, Virtual bets total = -1600 -- Banker @ 300 bet
17 hands, Virtual bets total = -1200 -- Banker @ 400 bet
18 hands, Virtual bets total = -1700 -- Player @ 500 bet
19 hands, Virtual bets total = -2200 -- Player @ 500 bet
20 hands, Real bets total = -500 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ 500 bet
21 hands, Real bets total = 0 -- Vig so far = 25 -- Banker @ 500 bet
22 hands, Real bets total = 600 -- Vig so far = 55 -- Banker @ 600 bet
23 hands, Real bets total = -100 -- Vig so far = 55 -- Player @ 700 bet
24 hands, Real bets total = -800 -- Vig so far = 55 -- Player @ 700 bet
25 hands, Real bets total = -100 -- Vig so far = 90 -- Banker @ 700 bet
26 hands, Real bets total = -900 -- Vig so far = 90 -- Player @ 800 bet
27 hands, Real bets total = -100 -- Vig so far = 130 -- Banker @ 800 bet
28 hands, Real bets total = -1000 -- Vig so far = 130 -- Player @ 900 bet
29 hands, Real bets total = -1900 -- Vig so far = 130 -- Player @ 900 bet
30 hands, Real bets total = -1000 -- Vig so far = 175 -- Banker @ 900 bet
31 hands, Real bets total = 0 -- Vig so far = 225 -- Banker @ 1000 bet
32 hands, Real bets total = -1100 -- Vig so far = 225 -- Player @ 1100 bet
33 hands, Real bets total = -2200 -- Vig so far = 225 -- Player @ 1100 bet

Just look at that streak of Players.

Should line 19 be bet at 300?

 

OG can have huge drawdowns some times. BeJustRich uploaded 200 real shoes in the Thread Oscar's grind+baccarat in post #159. The excel sheet is color coded for P and B. Browsing the color for B, it is low in Rows 2591 to 2915. I started in Row 2591 betting B. It was -20.80 in Row 2613. It reached -1424.25 units in Row 2808 and reached +1 in Row 2915. Max bet was 155 units. I took B as 0.95 to take commission into account. There is a necessity for stop loss, 1500 units? This is a limited test.

 

I am not suggesting anything . I just want to know what your actions are. So it's FOMO. One thing I really don't understand is people seem to think as if B is head over heels over P. Mathematically it is but the miniscule edge is by no means making a big shift. I might be wrong but I think it is 101 B to 100 P average.
If you bet against 10 P continuously, you are going to get it but if you bet sparingly against 10 P, you have a better chance to avoid it and pull in the same number of wins in the long run.

 

Line 5-10 should look like this:

P -100/100
P -200/100
P -300/100
B -200/200
B 0
B 100

 

This one is correct.