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Video Poker Quads After Quads Anomaly

Discussion in 'Video Poker Forum' started by Hugh Jass, Dec 24, 2017.

  1. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass New Member

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    Has anyone observed the quads after quads anomaly on present-day deuces wild machines, especially not-so-ugly deuces?
     
  2. Dan Paymar

    Dan Paymar Active Member Founding Member

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    I haven't noticed it. I think it was just a case of wanting to see patterns in random events.
     
  3. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass New Member

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    Thank you for your reply, Mr. Paymar. So you've noticed the quads-after-quads anomaly only on Players Edge Plus machines?
     
  4. Dan Paymar

    Dan Paymar Active Member Founding Member

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    It was 20 years ago when I was publishing Video Poker Times that readers reported this supposed anomaly. As I said, I think it was just the natural human instinct of wanting to see patterns where there are none, just as we see faces and animals in cloud formations.
     
  5. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass New Member

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    "Later, a more qualified statistician confirmed that my records showed a divergence of more than six standard deviations from expectation in a purely random situation." - Video Poker Anomalies and Anecdotes

    That's quite a cloud formation!
     
  6. Dan Paymar

    Dan Paymar Active Member Founding Member

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    That's quite a storm. But you say, "...records showed a divergence of more than six standard deviations from expectation in a purely random situation." That's an oxymoron. If it was a sizable sample, then such a big deviation from expectation would prove that the data were NOT purely random.

    I'd love to see the data and the analysis.
     
  7. Dan Paymar

    Dan Paymar Active Member Founding Member

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    Perhaps you meant to say "...FROM a purely random situation."
     
  8. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass New Member

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    I would love to see the data and the analysis, too, since I was quoting YOU from your publication Video Poker Anomalies and Anecdotes. Perhaps YOU meant to say "...FROM a purely random situation."
     
  9. Dan Paymar

    Dan Paymar Active Member Founding Member

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    After re-reading your post several times, I think I see what you meant to say. It just shows how a simple statement in English can be interpreted more than one way. Perhaps if it was worded, "...records showed a divergence of more than six standard deviations from what would be expected in a purely random situation."

    I still would very much like to see your data and the analysis.
     
  10. Dan Paymar

    Dan Paymar Active Member Founding Member

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    Sorry, I wrote my last post before seeing your last post above. Didn't realize you were quoting from my publication. With 20/20 hindsight, I should have reworded it before publishing the quote. Unfortunately, that was not my own observation; it was from a reader of Video Poker Times, and he/she never provided that data. I couldn't have done any such analysis myself because I'm not a statistician. I'm good with probabilities but not with statistical analysis. That takes us back to it most likely being just a case of someone seeing patterns that may or not have been there. It is true that we have a tendency to see patterns everywhere. Thank you for giving me a chance to clarify this.
     
  11. Hugh Jass

    Hugh Jass New Member

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    I don't have a copy of it, but I seem to remember reading in your VPT that you attained similar results after analyzing over 600,000 hands of deuces wild video poker. It seems that you were also seeing the patterns, correct?
     
  12. Dan Paymar

    Dan Paymar Active Member Founding Member

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    My customer didn't want his name used. I should have been more careful not to give the impression that it was my data.
     

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