Roulette Randomness & Question for Turbo

We do not have any concrete results unfortunately from the gambler's fallacy players, only short term RX or RNG monopoly graphs, they cannot considered as proof of it working. Either the HolyGrailer posts the exact rules of the system and we code it and test it over the long run (it will fail), or if he wants to keep THE SECRET, then he plays against a real wheel with real money online. Both of the serious options won't happen.

 

Should I have used bold letters? I feel like I should have used bold letters...too late now.

 

you could have, but it wouldn't havs worked either way

 

I really can't imagine what it is that Turbo has said that has any person convinced that he knows anything about winning.
Let me rephrase one of the questions then, so that the answer is a little bit more obvious.

2. What determines the probability of winning, is it the number of pockets on the wheel or the color of your socks?

 

Mako,
just test this.

track the next 37 spins.
note all numbers that didn't show during these spins.
record for every unhit number once it shows, how the next hits come in, until they reached their AVP again.
you will get the same results over and over again., but hey what do i know.

 

The HolyGrail has already changed, it was the biggest Min Interval numbers/locations, now you track 37 spins. By the way, did you win your 3€ on day 2? You stopped posting the update.

 

Guys,

There are more ways for a some numbers to hit a few times, some twice, some once, and some not at all then there are for all numbers to hit just once. Understand?

Unfortunately a number that has hit twice is no more likely than a number that hasn't hit to occur over the next series of spins. After all, why should it? Magic maybe?

The questions that I presented to you are quite simple. Any high school student should be able to answer them.

1. Why should a number that's losing big be more likely to hit than any other number in the random game?
The answer is that they both have the same chance of hitting.

2. What determines the probability of winning, is it the number of pockets on the wheel or the color of your socks?
The answer is that the number of pockets on the wheel determines the probability of a number winning, not your socks, and not the numbers that hit on the previous spins.

What I find odd is that you two are willing to believe the advice of some forumtard that can't even articulate why his system should win and his graphs, but you're willing to ignore all of the experts, mathematicians, and history on the game. Is it because you think they're all secretly lying to you? The numbers are "due" to hit/gambler's fallacy stuff has been documented time and time and time again over the history of the game.

My advice...next time you guys think the past numbers or "trot" are influencing the probability of winning on the next spin then look down and count the number of pockets again before placing your bets.

-Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

 

For a number to hit thrice, it had to hit twice. For a dog to finish second, a dog has to finish first. Every Min Intervals, given enough spins, will be equal to 1. At a moment during a long session, number Zero will appear. At a given moment during the day, I will have to go to pee. That's how the HolyGrail works, it is based on the knowledge that an event will INEVITABLY APPEAR, and we can rely on this crucial information to get an edge.

 

Absolutely correct !
after 15 reds there is a 50/50 chance it is either red or black.
What is the math that explains what the odds of another 15 in row would be ?
(please post it, it's kind of fun. 30 reds in a row - what are the math chances of that happening)
1 in........... it's not 50/50 is it..

I come in at 15 in a row and bet you that it won't be another 15 in a row.....
So I win unless there's 30 in a row..... Do I win ? Of course I do.

Same principle - I just saw #30 not appear for 194 spins.... then it appeared.
I bet on it. I know the average is 1 in 37 and it's at 1 in 194 now.
Do I need it to balance at +- Std deviation ? No, of course not.
I need it to appear more below the house payout of 35 spins than it does above that.
It's expected average is 1 in 37, we're at 1 in 194... this is simple isn't it ?
Note that I used the word "expected". Since we have things in this game "expected" -
that alone destroys the so-called Fallacy where NOTHING can be expected.

It's all been explained.

 

Congrats. In your own way you explained it to yourself. Happy Winnings.
Make any "thank you" donations to your local charity of choice.

 

In other words - there are 37 pockets.
Every number can be expected to appear on average 1 in 37 spins
A number hasn't appeared for 160 spins, then not again for 50, then not again for 49
and YOU in your amazing knowledge of random don't understand that it's "Due" to show up.
When it does you'll call it "drifting back to it's expected value" which means you are going
to argue with yourself now.

LOL - too funny. Stick with the unicorns, it pays well ! It's not "random" and clearly "random"
isn't your department.

 

Turbo, you are not betting on series of even chances to appear or maybe we are not playing at the same game, here, I bet one spin at a time, i get the same odds everytime and the unfair payout accordingly. Roulette is an independent event game, remember it.

Again, you claim a number is hitting at 1 in 194, this is wrong since this average is not the same for every player depending how many spins are analyzed. For another player who arrived before you at the table, n°30 could already have his Min Interval equals to 1 and hit like crazy. So if this player has the same logic than you, he will never bet 1 cent on n°30 since for him it will never hit again it is too hot

 

Why should it be due, after all aren't the same number of pockets on the wheel?
What you're not comprehending is that the expectation is for the long term.

 

lol. Sounds objective to me. I want you testing it !

"I have a medicine that cures cancer."
you: "It's all been tried, everything fails"
"but...."
you: "We've tried to cure it for 200 years (posts wikipedia page link) and it fails"

*sighs

 

Turbo,

The following will help you and others comprehend why numbers aren't due.

Here's one of the big problems that has people like Turbo fooled. Hitting at expectation is NOT enough to win. If a number is hitting at expectation on the double zero wheel then the number falls two units behind break even every 38 spins in the long run.

After 38 spins, the number is 2 units behind break even.
After 380 spins, the number is 20 units behind break even.
After 3800 spins, the number is 200 units behind break even.

As you can see, the longer you play, the more you'll lose as a result.

Now here's another fallacy that many people can't comprehend. If a number is below expectation, they naively believe that the number is due to catch back up by hitting above expectation in order to reach it's long term expectation of 1 in 38. Here's why they're wrong. A number doesn't have to ever make up for the deficit of hits in order to reach it's long term expectation hit ratio. The spin sample just has to grow larger in order to create the illusion that it's catching back up. That's it!

Here's an example to help you understand it using the red and black without a zero on the wheel.

After 10 spins, red has hit only 2 times. 2/10. It's hitting 20% of the time.
After 100 spins, red has hit 47 times. 47/100. It's hitting 47% of the time. (Look out, it's catching up, right?)
After 1000 spins, red has hit 497 times. 497/1000. It's now hitting 49.7% of the time or essentially 50% of the time. Wow, it caught back up, right? Or has it? The red is still just as far behind black as it was in the beginning, but the hit percentages are essentially the same. As you can see, numbers don't have to catch back up in order to reach their long term expectation. The number of spins just has to increase. That's it!

Sorry, just the facts.

-Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone.

 

Turbo, what is the link between medecine research and trying to resolve an impossible equation?. None, like the link between one spin and the next

 

Do the number of pockets on the wheel change ?
lol just checking, Sir No One wants to know, it's very important to him.

 

What I think is bizarre is that some people are willing to believe the advice of some high school drop out that can't even articulate why his system should win and his graphs, but they're willing to ignore all of the experts, mathematicians, and history on the game. Is it because the 'flat earthers' think they're all secretly lying to them? The numbers are "due" to hit/gambler's fallacy stuff has been documented time and time and time again over the history of the game and the information is readily available for all to read.

 

Never, that's why if n°30 is hitting at 1 in 194, then it is seriously mechanically biased, it has a much narrower pocket than the other pockets lol.

 

I guess I'll stick with the short term then. It's been working great so far (lol)

Nothing is impossible - things seem impossible because the right thing(s)/approaches haven't been tried.
When a cure is found for something - typically it's not from an invention, it's because things that already
exist were never properly combined to make a formula that works. Much like this.
You're so sure something is impossible that you don't even bother looking for the answer.
When the answer is given to you, you dismiss it because it can't possible be true.