1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Roulette Rigorous testings

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by BlueAngel, May 4, 2017.

  1. BlueAngel

    BlueAngel Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2016
    Likes:
    83
    Location:
    nowhere
    I've some questions which I'd like to share with you, so let's begin.

    1) Do you make sure that the results you are testing against your strategy are from the same table and day?

    Personally I wouldn't continue a previous sequence to my new session because I consider it unrelated, the same goes for another table on the same time, just because something works at 1 table it doesn't mean that it would work at all active tables simultaneously.
    That's why I consider absurd ideas such as personal permanence, once I saw a guy who he was running from table to table in order to bet on both simultaneously, what a joke of a person, simply ludicrous!

    2) How many spins and/or units lost/won are enough in order for you to form a solid conclusion?

    If you asked me I'd reply that what it matters most of all is the relationship between risk and profit, if you consider in spins terms it could be misleading because some systems are using large bankroll to win little and this could show consistency, high win rate, but just 1 or 2 losing sessions could wipe out their winnings plus bankrolls.
    Therefore I focus whether I could lose or double my bankroll, what would happen first, if doubles the BR it gets +1, if it doubles it for 2nd time it gets additionally 2 points and reaches +3 in my rating.
    Even in such rare case I don't stop testing till it has 5+ points, this is what I consider as good as it gets.
    On the other hand, when a system goes negative before doubles the initial bankroll it's being discontinued immediately in order not to waste more time with something which has good possibility to cause financial harm.
    When you have no idea what your bankroll should be you could set intervals/checkpoints on every coup/new BR high, see if your negative balance exceeded your eventual new high BR, if that's the case for more than 1 intervals/checkpoints it's a bad omen, ''the good day seems from early in the mourning''...

    3) How do you determine the win/loss stop limits? How much is enough?
    How do you know if you continue that would better or worse than what you had already?

    Regarding my experience with roulette, there cannot be a fixed amount to be won, nor a fixed amount of spins/time to be played, you may attempt to set your limits but results have their own...
    Thus if we could be flexible in order to adapt any kind of outcomes to our goals, we would thrive under any possible circumstances.
    If you have a certain amount in your mind it might be not possible to achieve it, the same for specific bet selections, it could be bad day for a particular method, why not be versatile and flexible?
    Keep your options open and be with the winners, in other words, think like a woman...!
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2017
  2. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,040
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Here is how it is done by me:
    "LLLwLwLwwLwwwLwwwwLwwwwLLwwwLwwwLwwLwwLLwLwLwLwwwwLwwwwwwLwLwwLLwwwwwLLLLLwLwLwLwwLww"

    I bet on 24 numbers to win and need two wins for each loss to break even. Just by looking at these results you can see times where the casino is in a phase of casino side opportunity. Later you can see where it shifts to player side advantage. Then it goes back to casino side advantage. You can quit or keep going as long as you have the time to wait for player side advantages. They come and go all by themselves. There is no prediction when they will start and how long they will last. You must play a game that allows you to lose a few bets as the player side advantage comes to an end. It's just a matter of playing the changing conditions. It's far more important to be aware of the chemical changes that go on in you when you go on a win streak. It's hard to stop if you don't know that you should stop.

    There are 32 losses in the Win/Loss list above. There are 53 wins above. Yet there was a stretch that was 17 wins vs 6 losses, a total of 23 spins. It only represents a 5 win advantage in an otherwise dismal 85 spins. This is an example of how bad it can be.

    wLwLwwwLLwLwwwwwwwwwwwwwLwwwwLwLwwwwwwwLwLwwwwwwwww

    Here is a really good session:
    Code:
    | 1  2  3 | A  B  C | 0  3  6 | P |
    | X       | X       | X       |   | -- 10
    | X       | X       |    X    | P | -- 4
    |       X |    X    | X       |   | -- 35
    | X       |       X |       X | P | -- 6
    |       X |    X    |       X | P | -- 32
    |    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 24
    | X       | X       |    X    |   | -- 7
    | X       |       X |    X    | P | -- 12
    |    X    |       X |    X    |   | -- 15
    | X       |    X    |       X | P | -- 5
    
    |    X    | X       | X       |   |  # 0 -- (No Bet)13 -- 0 -- (No Bet) -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 0 -- Singles
    | X       | X       | X       | P |  # 1 -- Won -- 0 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 0 -- Singles
    |-------------------| X       | P |  # 38 -- Lost  -- 0 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    | X       | X       |    X    |   |  # 7 -- Won -- 0 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    |       X |       X |    X    |   |  # 30 -- Lost  -- 0 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    |       X |       X | X       | P |  # 27 -- Won -- 0 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    | X       | X       | X       |   |  # 10 -- Won -- 0 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    |    X    | X       |       X |   |  # 22 -- Won -- 0 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 0 -- Singles
    |    X    |       X |    X    |   |  # 24 -- Lost  -- 0 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 0 -- Singles
    | X       |       X |    X    | P |  # 3 -- Lost  -- 0 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    |    X    |    X    |    X    |   |  # 23 -- Won -- 0 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 1 -- Sleepers
    |       X |       X |    X    |   |  # 30 -- Lost  -- -24 -- ( 3's & 6's to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |    X    | P |  # 3 -- Won -- -24 -- ( 3's & 6's to win next) @ 1 -- Sleepers
    |    X    | X       |       X |   |  # 19 -- Won -- -12 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 1 -- Singles
    | X       | X       |    X    |   |  # 7 -- Won -- 0 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 3 -- Sleepers
    |    X    | X       |       X |   |  # 19 -- Won -- 36 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 3 -- Sleepers
    | X       | X       |    X    | P |  # 4 -- Won -- 72 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    | X       |    X    |       X | P |  # 5 -- Won -- 96 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    | X       |    X    |       X | P |  # 5 -- Won -- 120 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |    X    | X       | X       |   |  # 13 -- Won -- 144 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |    X    |    X    |       X |   |  # 20 -- Won -- 168 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |    X    | X       |       X |   |  # 22 -- Won -- 192 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |       X |    X    |       X | P |  # 32 -- Won -- 216 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |       X | X       |       X | P |  # 31 -- Won -- 240 -- ( 3's & 6's to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |       X |       X |    X    |   |  # 30 -- Won -- 264 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |    X    | P |  # 12 -- Lost  -- 216 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |       X | P |  # 6 -- Won -- 216 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 1 -- Sleepers
    |    X    | X       | X       |   |  # 13 -- Won -- 228 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 1 -- Singles
    | X       | X       | X       |   |  # 10 -- Won -- 240 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |    X    |       X |    X    |   |  # 15 -- Won -- 264 -- ( 1 & 2 to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |       X |       X | X       |   |  # 36 -- Lost  -- 216 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    |       X |       X |    X    |   |  # 30 -- Won -- 216 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 1 -- Sleepers
    |       X |    X    | X       |   |  # 35 -- Lost  -- 192 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |    X    | P |  # 3 -- Won -- 192 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 1 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |    X    | P |  # 12 -- Won -- 204 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 1 -- Sleepers
    |    X    |       X |       X |   |  # 21 -- Won -- 216 -- ( 0's & 6's to win next) @ 2 -- Singles
    | X       |       X | X       |   |  # 9 -- Won -- 236 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |    X    | P |  # 3 -- Won -- 260 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |       X | P |  # 6 -- Won -- 284 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |       X |    X    |    X    |   |  # 29 -- Won -- 308 -- ( 1 & 3 to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    |    X    |    X    |    X    |   |  # 23 -- Lost  -- 260 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 0 -- Sleepers
    | X       |       X |       X | P |  # 6 -- Won -- 260 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 1 -- Sleepers
    | X       | X       |    X    |   |  # 7 -- Lost  -- 236 -- (2 & 3 to win next) @ 0 -- Singles
    |       X |    X    | X       |   |  # 26 -- Won -- 236 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 1 -- Singles
    | X       | X       |    X    | P |  # 4 -- Won -- 248 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 1 -- Singles
    |    X    |       X |       X |   |  # 21 -- Won -- 260 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Singles
    |       X |    X    |    X    |   |  # 29 -- Won -- 284 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 2 -- Singles
    |       X |       X | X       |   |  # 36 -- Won -- 308 -- ( A & B to win next) @ 2 -- Singles
    | X       |    X    | X       | P |  # 2 -- Won -- 332 -- ( A & C to win next) @ 2 -- Singles
    |    X    | X       | X       |   |  # 13 -- Won -- 356 -- ( B & C to win next) @ 2 -- Singles
    |       X |    X    | X       |   |  # 35 -- Won -- 380 -- ( 0's & 6's to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
    | X       |    X    | X       | P |  # 2 -- Won -- 400 -- ( 0's & 6's to win next) @ 2 -- Sleepers
     
  3. BlueAngel

    BlueAngel Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2016
    Likes:
    83
    Location:
    nowhere
    I like your way Gizmo, seems to me similar to Ion Saliu's.
    I think that you could further refine your method by the timing concept.
    By timing I mean to wait for specific conditions before you bet rather than non stop betting.
    For example, after 1 of your 24 numbers has hit bet only once those 24, in other words we expect a 2 in a row streak for 24 numbers.
    Possible? Very possible!
    Condition number 2: after 2 hits for the 13 numbers bet that the 3rd will be 1 of the 24.
    Possible? Very possible!
    If you lose when laying 13 numbers you might consider expanding your betting activity for up to 3 bets by using the progression on each number 1-3-9, with a total cost of 13*24=312 units.
    If/when lose 312 units you should deduct your wins from that number and find out how much remains, if the remaining total is negative it's time to activate 2nd phase of your plan which is based entirely on the 1st condition only.
    So after 1 virtual win for your 24 numbers use a positive parlay in order to recover any loss occurred by the 3 step negative progression.
    The parlay steps are as follows: 1-1-2-3-4-6-9-14-21 (on each number) for an accumulated net of 12+12+24+36+48+72+108+168+252=732 units
    This is how far you should dare, up to and including 9 wins in a row plus the virtual win makes it 10 streak for 24 numbers and that's almost the double from 5 streak for 13 numbers.

    The only practical concern is dealers who don't give you sufficient time to lay your chips and trying to reach across the edges of the table with 4-5 persons around you.
    Not so comfortable but doable.
     
  4. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,040
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    This was an example of my artificial intelligence software. It drops back to a zero valued bet even though it charts a win or loss. I created this so that it could illustrate the effectiveness states to my students. It's meant to go through losing streaks. It only looks like it bets each spin. If you look at the telemetry you will see " @ 0 " which means a selection is made at a bet value of 0 units per bet number. " @ 1 means that the bet value is at 1 unit for each of the 24 numbers selected.

    My actual play in a casino is far beyond this simple example based simulator. It saved me hundreds of hours of teaching at my school. It also provided endless examples of all the kinds of conditions you might encounter. The best way to refine your play is to refine your experience in seeing all kinds of conditions. The experienced player can adjust to the conditions that are occurring. I built this training tool just to consider two types of dominant conditions. It's a very narrow and rudimentary evaluation tool. It's slow and clunky and only sees a narrow band of characteristics involving sleepers or singles. The software is also a training tool that allows you to turn the AI function off. You can then go on to keep doing telemetry of your actual bet values and selections in a manual mode. It makes it easy to practice.

    There is no substitute for charting on index cards at a live casino and getting all of your 24 bets down in time. I have no trouble because I'm very fast on a live table. It took years to get really good and fast at this.

    Turbo's discussions on randomness expectations that are predictable within reason has added a new layer to my method. Certain things do happen. They don't have anything to do with a few hot numbers yet they effect the 12 dozens that I keep track of. There are things that do happen. These past four months have been very productive for me.
     
  5. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    934
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    You really should remove the word "intelligence" from the description of your software, as it's obviously missing from the software and it's developer.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2017
    Bombus and AxelWolf like this.
  6. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,040
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    You should remove your head from where the sun don't shine.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 5, 2017
    Bombus likes this.

Share This Page