Roulette Scoring money: Combining systems and managing bankroll(s)!

-I am not claiming anything with certainty and I'm not selling anything! Just posting this to share experience and open up a discussion. I would really like to hear your opinions on my thoughts, especially players who have years and years of experience. Please don't post negative comments to exploit your intellectual superiority over us, because I am not a guy who thinks he found the holy grail, nor am I interested in feedbacks filled with irony, sarcasm by the gambling failures who project their frustrations on others. I am planning to start playing with real money soon, so this discussion can help me a lot. Maybe even stop me from spending so much time and money trying to score, and maybe it can help you too So, let's begin..

-Is Gambler's fallacy a fallacy?
We all know that each spin is individual and history doesn't affect the next outcomes. But is that really true? Mathematically proven and speaking, yes! But in reality, in the actual history of tables - fact is that it is a very rare occasion where 15 reds show in a row or 15 dozens, or very long chop seasons etc. This said we can have the idea to just wait for a colour to happen 5-6 times in a row and then just martingale the shit out of the black until we win. I was one of the many who thought this will provide me a steady income, but soon enough I discovered that it won't. Because although 15 red in a row happen rarely, we can never predict when it's gonna happen and our probability calculations will fail us. SO even if we just play this way and even get the chance to double our bankroll, the 15reds can happen and we are back to 0 after spending hours playing the roulette and start over again until we lose it all. More on this later..

-Is "quit while you are ahead" true?
Yes. If you are determined to win a certain amount of money, you can develop a strategy and come to the table. You are still risking of losing your entire bankroll, but if you have a good system, MAYBE, you can reach your goal and get that money. But that doesn't mean anything in a long term. I've seen roulette players claiming they make money because they play in disciplined sessions with each session having a stop-loss and the goal. But in a long-term roulette playing, if you want to secure a steady income this doesn't work. Why? Because there is no difference in playing roulette for 5 days - 1hour per day and making 100$ per day AND playing the roulette for 5 hours in one day making 500$. The loss can happen on a 6th day or the 6th hour of the first day - it's the same. So if we decide to limit our sessions per day, we are just prolonging the inevitable loss, aren't we? So yeah, I think "quit while you are ahead" is a good method to use if you want to make a short-term profit while gambling, but if you are looking for a way to make money all the time, this statement doesn't mean anything.

-"There is a perfect system somewhere out there that will provide us constant winnings."
NO! A very big no-no! Never in a thousand years! Never! Only thing that provides this is the real advantage play that includes biased wheels, roulette computers etc. However, there is a certain taste to the thought of using the system cleverly - not just mechanically repeating it and winning money - but being experienced enough to understand when and why a certain system can be used to win. Even then, there are always probabilities to lose and it is just the nature of roulette due to its randomness - something no system will ever be able to beat. If such system exists, somebody will discover it in all this time. BUT!!! I still think there is an actual way to provide myself with steady income. I SAID I THINK, I AM NOT CLAIMING I HAVE DISCOVERED SOMETHING GENIUS - Just trying to stress this enough, so we can have a healthy discussion about it.

- Roulette is a game! We often forget this and we perceive the game to be our own ATM and we frustrate over it oooh why doesn't it work and we lose all the fun. And because we are not enjoying our playing time, we are slowly becoming frustrated and that influences our decisions, so we make bad ones. Like any other game, you have to play it to be good at it. The more you play it, the better you get at it. The "playing" can include our ability to rely on probabilities based on previous spins, statistically speaking, based on facts. If the last 5 spins were only numbers from the 1st Dozen, I will bet on on the other two dozens + 4 or 5 numbers from the 1st + 0. I can triple it in case of loss, but more probable than not - I will win in the next few spins. Not for sure! But probably! And I wouldn't overuse this method. I won't play it until the similar situation happens. Until that happens, I can either wait for numbers, or I can use some other system in the meantime. Do you see where I'm going? Let's put it this way:

-Now I am speaking only in theory, what I'm about to explain is not based on any strategy, everything from now is hypothetically speaking. As I mentioned in the beginning - no matter how careful you are with a certain system, sooner or later, that system will fail and you will lose your bankroll. I will use the simplest martingale strategy ONLY FOR EXAMPLE!.

It's a total bankroll of 511 (1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 + 256)
It's a total of 9 tries to earn 1$. In my very long period of trying this method playing on FUN MODE, I discovered this system approximately fails when you get close to 1000$. Sometimes later, sometimes sooner, but in all of my 100+ sessions, I discovered that AVERAGE LOSS will be when I reach somewhere around 300$. So I'm down 211$ and I lost money. I cannot practice this strategy with 300$, so the strategy failed. I tried this with 10 other strategies, and it's always the same - you score and score and think "wow this actually works" and before I double my bankroll, I lose the bankroll I need for the strategy to work, so I fail. I was ready to quit the search for the ultimate strategy, but one thought came in my mind:

What if I use all these systems at once? Let's say that we have 10 systems that are based on one single bankroll of 500$. And every system will, statistically speaking, fail when you get to 300$. To be clear, I am not talking about having 10 accounts with 500$, but a one singular account of 500$ where I play all the strategies at once. Based on the last 10-20 numbers, I decide what system has the most probability to win, so I use that one. If no system is suitable, I just wait for few spins and make my decision. What do I have then?

I can maybe earn the 300$ before one of the systems fail. So if I win 300$ with each system before I lose my initial 500$ bankroll: I earned 3000$, take 500$ loss from it - I'm left with 2500$. I take 500$ from it to start again, and what I'm left with is 2000$ of profit.

Like I said, you don't know when the system is going to fail me, maybe 3 systems will fail me in a row, so although I have high probabilities to win with these 10 systems, the randomness can make me lose my bankroll on the first few spins, of course! What would be my solution for this?

My actual bankroll would be 500$. And if I lose one "account" from it, I would have other 4 to get it back. So the entire strategy of 10 systems would have to fail me 4 more times in a row in order for me to lose everything. I think that the odds are very low for me to lose the entire 5000$ plan. Even if I lose another 500$, I still have 4000$ left (4 more tries) to go back to the 5000$. And only when my bankroll of 5 accounts (5000$) is stable, I take profits.

Now, I wouldn't use my entire long-term play with only 5000$. What I would do - I would take 30% of all my winnings and keep it in the bankroll - that way my bankroll keeps growing and I am gathering more and more "accounts" of 500$ - so in the long-term - it means the more I play and score, the more I build my backup bankroll to get the money back. If I play with only 5000$ for eternity, I would lose everything sooner or later, but if I constantly build my bankroll, my probabilities of losing get smaller and smaller each day - when these 500$ account units are taken into account. And I would never increase my bets and bet on more money, I would always stay with the 500$ strategies aiming for the same outcomes and profits.

I don't want to list out all the systems I found, I don't think it is necessary at the moment. Everything I wrote is just theory, just my thoughts. AGAIN, I am not 100% I found something that works. That's why I am posting this thread - so we can discuss it and so I can get a feedback from more experienced players than me. It took me a long time to formulate everything and put all the systems I learned in order, so please try to be kind and have a healthy discussion if you have thoughts on this. Maybe this can also help you, or maybe you can help me understand why this wouldn't work, so I don't go online and spend my money. Please guys, tell me what your thoughts on this are.

Best regards,
Bijelo4Blue

 

I'm sorry I made a mistake while writing, so here is a correction:

My actual bankroll would be 5000$. And if I lose one "account" from it, I would have other 9 to get it back. So the entire strategy of 10 systems would have to fail me 9 more times in a row in order for me to lose everything. I think that the odds are very low for me to lose the entire 5000$ plan. Even if I lose another 500$, I still have 4000$ left (8 more tries) to go back to the 5000$. And only when my bankroll of 5 accounts (5000$) is stable, I take profits.

 

I have to point out one more thing: All the systems I use include betting on the minimum of 20 numbers. So with each turn, my odds are higher than 50%.

 

One of the most interesting posts I've ever read!

It seems that the strategy is based on Parrondo's paradox, apart from capital management.

regards!

 

I'm gonna look into that!

 

I found this video interesting, it talks about Parrondo's paradox:

 

Okay, I think that this is a good starter point for a way of thinking and constructing one's strategy. But the guy says it cannot be done in a casino game at the end of the video. I think - at least not in a way he explained. The problem here is the randomness (like he said, and like I also wrote) and you cannot switch between strategies expecting that the second strategy will always be a winner. YOU CANNOT RANDOMLY CHOSE A STRATEGY ALTHOUGH THE ROULETTE IS RANDOM. What I think is that the randomness has it's own rules within the chaos. I think that the wheel always tends toward the balance between numbers in a long-run. And you cannot predict a loss that will occur, and you will certainly not lose on purpose!

The only real advantage that we have and casinos don't (in my opinion) is that we get to choose when and how much to bet. So we don't just start betting like dumb idiots, but instead, we carefully plan our next bets based on the numbers. I KNOW THAT EACH SPIN IS INDIVIDUAL, but.. I mean, come on... We all know that one dozen will rarely come up 7 or 8 times in a row. It's just something you can see in a long time of playing the roulette. If you play carefully and wait for numbers to give you an insight of what MIGHT HAPPEN MORE PROBABLY THAN NOT in the next 4-5 spins, GO AHEAD AND BET. If we win, we continue playing our strategies with a great deal of carefulness. In times when we lose, we just use our other balances to get that money back and in a long run - we will be UP - IF WE HAVE A DETAILED BANKROLL MANAGEMENT LIKE I WROTE BEFORE. I think that his penguin demonstration is a good example.

 

1200 views and 6 replies and most of the replies are from the OP. That's because nobody knows what he's talking about.

 

Hi Spike,
I understand my thread is confusing, because I am also confused and figuring things out. Is there anything you want me to explain a little bit better?
Greetings!