Baccarat Secrets of Winning Baccarat by Brian Kayser

Hi Sputnik
So no matter what, the fact to wait for a "trigger" is just slowing down all process, to bet less. having a trigger, or betting one side will bring the same results, some sessions will lose, some will win, some will break even, but i am still a fan of Banker bet. If i would bet with the style of Bryan Kaiser, i would try to bet that two P will not be three, so bet B or proceed with some Virtual loss as a trigger before. But you will have less opportunities and have to play longer.

I do feel that in this game, we should focus heavily, really heavily on MM, rather than bet selection, i am more a fan of flat betting, and positive progression to be honest, combined to a discipline like if i lose three times in a row it's DONE for the session or the day, and if i hit my Loss Stop too but i am curious :

What about your birthday paradox understanding ? I am still waiting for the thread to continue, cause the results that you have posted seemed promising so far for the moment

"2) I will show one intuitive selection process where you go with the flow achieving a very high strike ratio.
Illustration: LWLWLWLLWWWLLWLWLWLWWLWLWWLWWWWWLWLWWWWWWWLWWLLWLLLWWLW"

And what is your advise about the MM for you Birthday paradox method ?

you can respond on your thread if you want.

Cheers

 

Just curious... why aren’t you a fan of banker? It’s the best bet in the game. Even after commission it’s still the better bet. Even on ez baccarat or big six, it’s still the best bet.

 

On the contrary, as i said on the line 3 that i prefer the Banker, and as it was said in this thread " because it has a slight statistical advantage over the player's" Since i don't have supernatural power to predict the future, this is for me the best bet.

 

I totally misread that. My bad.

 

Hello AndyCasinoK ...

I love the way Brain describes the stats, he talks about quitting when ahead and mention that losing four shoes in a row has a 4.1% likelihood.
That is a very clear indicat.

I will get back to this topic with some stats, at the moment I test and confirm the results by Brian Kayser.

Cheers

 

I don't know if I do something wrong, but I can not get similar results.
Maybe this short sample is fluctuating.

I test with La Partage Rule and RNG

Sampel 100 Result +1
Sampel 100 Result -1
Sampel 100 Result -2.5
Sampel 100 Result +1.5
Sampel 100 Result -3.5
Sampel 100 Result -9.5
Sampel 100 Result +1
Sample 100 Result -9
Sample 100 Result -2.5
Sample 100 Result +2.5

 

1. Bet one unit that two in a row won’t make three in a row.
2. If you lose three times in a row, bet three units that two in a row will not make three in a row.
3. 3. If you lose that bet, repeat the whole sequence.
4. 4. If you again lose four bets, wait for the next shoe.

Now I see where I went wrong, point 4, If you again lose four bets, wait for the next shoe.
Back to testing again.

 

The only real advantage to Banker only is losing less.

 

In an eight deck shoe there is NO advantage to betting Banker. You guys are being duped by the same people that tell you Blackjack is a better game. Believers in card counting are quick to tell you about all the teams and movies etc.,etc. What even the most famous team when their short beating the casino show not the movie. If you pay attention more than one mentioned that they didn't always win. One also said they lost bankrolls. They also never commit to the amount they won.
It promotes the game.
Certain plays can appear for a while. Certain plays can also disappear like they never existed. Tracking shoe to shoe If that's your game can help but your downfall can be waiting around the corner. Its called gambling for a reason.
Waiting for the twenty behind is pretty smart. Why because the game is dead at fifty fifty. That far behind it has to catch up. Not has to lets say usually does. But, when. You could also count for a while and it continue to be back and forth.
Betting for or against, or ending threes can all be good bets. They can also disappear just like trends people look for.
Seen it all. I've seen weeks where there are no threes. I've also brought up the time many times about a week at the casino where no run went past four. It was actually Monday night through Friday morning. I would walk up to the table and drop a black opposite four. The table would look at me like I was the devil. That's back in the heavy follow shoe days.
What you experience at the tables may not be the same thing others have experienced. Especially different places in the world. So is there anything that always wins. Yes, It will always be a Banker Player or tie. Or a follow chop or tie. A dbl odbl or tie. And the list goes on.
Later......

 

I have one question, I have a hard time getting similar results as Brian Kayser.

Assumption 1, Play the whole shoe and the end result of each shoe is the final result
Assumption 2, Bet against series of two to become three in a row

Is this wrong or right - I read the book to the chapter with Advance Strategy ...

Shoe MoSun JFM 1099

p
B
pp ... Won
B
p
BB ... Won
p
BB ... Won
ppp ... Loss
B
pp ... Won
B
p
B
p
BBB ... Loss
p
BBB ... Loss
pppppp ... Loss
B
pp ... Won
B
p
B
p
BBB ... Loss
p
B
ppp ... Loss
B
ppp .... Loss
B
p
BB ... Won
pp ... Won
B
p
B
p

Cheers

 

Hi patrick!

In his 232 tested shoes Kayser got a 51.6%/48.4% runs of two/runs of three or more ratio (pg 85), of course a value capable to overcome the house edge and winning by flat betting.

as.

 

Thanks, Asumbacguy ...

I have 100 shoes - maybe they will give me different results than RNG ...

Cheers

 

Hi Sputnik, for me your doing it right, this is the way of playing yes.
Here one of my Shoe.


BB
PP ...Won

BBBB... Loss
PPPP... Loss

B
P

BB...Won
P

B
P
BBB...Loss
P
BBBB...Loss
P
B
P
BB...Won
PP...Won
BBB...Loss
PP...Won
B
PPPPPPP...Loss
BB...Won
P
BBBBB...Loss
P
BBB...Loss
P
BB...Won
PP

 

Thanks, AndyCasinoK ...

My last assumption - Chapter - quit when ahead ...

So when we play several shoes we know that four losing shoes after each other has 4.1% likely to happen.
So the end result for each shoe is the final scores to relate to.
This should be the reason why we sometimes can play for several shoes to break even or get a win.

Let's say we play several shoes and get both winning and losing shoes, then we know that when we are ahead with one or two shoes giving us a positive return on investment we quit.

Cheers

 

After 16 real shoes - I am not getting similar results - feels like I do something wrong

+4 -5 -2 +3 -6 +4 +0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -12 +4 +7 -8 -3

win +22
Loss -45

 

Hum maybe we should bring 24 U and then play one shoe if we are in positive, we should leave it for the day, and if with the first shoe we are in put us on negative, we should play another and last one and then quit.

Hum yea you have bad results, but maybe it will turn good with a little bit more test ? In my testing i had better results, for the moment.
Post the -12 shoe and the -4 shoe if you can, maybe we can found a protection mechanism ?

 

what about Kewljason? doesn't he makes his bread n butter via card counting?
are you saying counting doesnt work or not worth it?
every game does try to get promoted but if it were up to me to play a BJ 21 with a deck rich of aces/faces vs a deck poor in aces and face
which would you like?

 

Bbbbbbbbbwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh, the al-relax retard has returned, again to wind up the resident coconut in here, hey hey.

 

Gee let's see. You count till you have a great count. Your heads up. Ill tell you the next four cards ten, nine, ten, ten. Shuffle them and who wins? Fifty fifty could be you or the dealer for even money. Baccarat no counting walk up to the table and the next hand fifty fifty. Why would you spend seat time and pay rent to get in the exact same advantage by just sitting down? I bet you believe when they tell you other players have no impact on your play. Right........
There's no question what the better game is. One casino I was in had half the casino covered in BJ tables. People were handing in their money with the lowest minimum twenty five. What bet would it take to make up for the seat time? And then no guarantee it will be you. Guess you've never sat there with a hot dealer smoking your ass getting every ace.
Hell why stop at BJ lets talk about how great the other carnival games are.

 

AndyCasinoK ... I believe that the expectation around 51.6% kicks in with a larger sample.
I have 100 real shoes and will analyze them.
And I will not change anything, don't want to curve fitting.

It just that when he state playing for several hours to reach break-even ... I can not see that being down more than 20 units with 16 plays shoes.

Cheers