Sports Betting So are you willing to concede laying huge money is not a sound strategy?

So Moses are you willing to concede laying huge money is not a sound strategy? Doesn't mean it can't ever work but not a long term winning strategy.

That said, I am laying huge money tonight to make a relatively small amount.

In the 9 combined NHL games I am getting home teams score more than visiting. Laying $5200 to make $1000. Yikes!

Almost every home game is a favorite with 4 being huge favorites. It would take several away teams scoring huge upsets where they win by 4 or 5 goals to lose I believe. Still not a long term sound strategy. The fun begins in about 5 minutes.

 

Even redietz can tell you this you moron. Home ice advantage in the NHL is 54.5%. Therefore, any team that wins on the road is not a HUGE upset

Just more facts you yourself provide that proves you could never be successful at ANY casino game.

 

This is kind of fun. One of the things I don't like about hockey is too slow with not enough scoring.

Watching 5 games changes that. Half way through the first periods it is home 4 away 2.

 

I draw the line at double digits which is about
-400 money line. Never give over 3.5 in basketball.

The best win percentage in MLB last year was betting on the Colorado Rockies at home and against them away. Especially through August. There are some good value bets in NHL if you know what to look for.

 

Hockey home teams up 18-7 with 6 games under way. Rob's Boston bruins up 7-1.

Thanks Rob. Easy money.

 

First 5 games into the 3rd period with home teams ahead 24-7.

This might be the easiest money ever. And that might be a bad thing. Lol.

 

A good night for a lesson in finding value. Look at overall records and home records for teams playing at home vs away records for teams on the road.

Next two nights. Not much value.

 

That is what caught my eye in the first place. Looked like only 2 of the 9 away teams were close to even footing, while 4 or 5 of the home games should have won easily.

Now I had no idea the scoring for the first 5 games played would be that lopsided, 28-6 for home teams. But it seems worthy of laying a pretty big number.

 

Why didn't you parlay your bet?

 

Carolina, Florida, Toronto, Boston all winning overall over 60% wins and downright gaudy home records. Opponents are all below 50% wins overall and away. That's value.

Minnesota Wild 24-8 at home Pittsburgh Penguins 21-15:away. Overall records are close.
That's not value.

 

Parlays are a sucker vet. Just read Monet's picks daily. He always parlays 3 or 4 teams and all but 1 win. If he bet his games straight he would be doing much better. As it is, 75% of his pucks win, but he loses all his bets because he parlays.

 

No Pittsburg and Dallas stars were the 2 away teams that had a good chance. But this was one single wager....all 9 games. Home goals vs away team goals. Very easy win. I doubt it works out that way all the time But When you see 4 home teams @ -300 or more there is a good chance there are far more home team goals than away team goals.


I wouldn't lay 1 to 5 very often, but tonight seemed like a....i don't want to say sure thing but ya know. Lol

 

Avalanche offers a decent value along with the other 4 already mentioned.

The other games are coin flips.

 

Of course I know very little about betting sports in general. But if the games were such high value, where's the harm in putting maybe one tenth of your overall bets on the parlay?

 

As I say monet always misses one on his parlay, he hit a good one tonight. Good for him.

 

Well done Monet. Just betting each team on the puck line is impressive. Or a 5 team money line parlay. But you parlayed all 5 on the puck line.

Standing O.

 

Rob. This was a rare night in the NHL. 5 plays like that in one night. Last team to fit was on Sunday.

Two tomorrow.

 

I understand, thanks.

 

Just wanted to add as someone guilty of posting shit just like you 3, it’s nice to see decent gambling discussions like this without all the hate.

 

The fundamental reason to not bet parlays is that you are rarely getting all of the optimal lines in one place and at one time. Almost never. Occasionally, promotions pop up that make it worthwhile to do such a thing, but it's rare.

So by doing things in a lazy fashion, you are giving up a measurable and significant advantage. This was the problem with the WOV fixation on a "parlay odds calculator." The use of such a thing ignores the fact that lines vary over time, sometimes immensely, so betting an array of teams at one point in time is non-optimal almost by definition.

I'm surprised Singer doesn't get this. It's obvious, first of all. Second, casinos rely on patrons "doing what the casinos want," as Singer has recognized as a bad thing. A patron is in one place. He is too lazy to check other places (which is really ridiculous if you're doing online betting) and to shop for optimal lines over time and at different locations. The book is exploiting (1) human laziness and (2) human impulsiveness.