Forex Spider's Den GF Edition

EURUSD is dropping after US CPI release but this looks like a retracement in uptrend. Judging from price action we could expect a possible rejection from POC zone. POC (61.8,L3,historical buyers) is at 1.0710-00zone. Bounce should be expected towards 1.0810 and 1.0850 respectively. For the bullish trend to resume the support zone at 1.0675-55 should hold and if it holds the price might spike even to 1.0950 in the upcoming week. Spikes which are formed after the news are not technical, they usually drive the price out of equilibrium. When flow hits the market usually there is no buffer. Price subsequently corrects itself into equlibrium again usually following the trend.

 

AUDUSD was a good performer last week and it came to a three week high. Fundamentally unemployment dropped to 6.1 from 6.2 ( revised ) on February and there hasn't been a rate cut after last RBA meeting. Technically the pair is rejecting intra week trend line but if we take a look at Friday range we dont see a big movement in the pair. Monday may follow with a low range until later today where RBA governor Glenn Stevens is expected to have a conference.
The pair is aiming for 0.7860 but i am more inclined for a better retracement at 0.7740 zone ( L4, 38.2, triple top/bottom swing ) where we should see a rejection. The rejection should put the pair in the next swing to the upside. Pay attention to trend line but also for a possible retracement.

 

EURUSD bounced of 1.0700 region and subsequently it made new daily high at 1.0780. Today we can clearly see inverted head and shoulders pattern and for further continuation up , the price needs to close and stay above 1.0767. H4 close is preferred but even on strong H1 momentum it could break 1.0780 towards 1.0802 ( H4 ) and 1.0855 ( H5 ). If the pair doesn't manage to hold above 1.0767 it may be put in inverted head and shoulders range play between 1.0700 and 1.0767. My view on EURUSD at this point hasn't changed a bit and as long as there is a possibility of a mutual agreement between Greece and EU , the pair should be bought on dips.

 

EURUSD is making whipsaw action as the pair is being sold on rallies and both on dips simultaneously. After yesterday's inverted head and shoulders the pair has slumped after the SNB announced fee on deposits and possible negative rates for pension funds. Now the support at 1.0659 is the major downside level for the day as if it breaks EURUSD could proceed lower to test 1.0620. To the upside 1.0745 is the resistance and the pair could test it which would indicate a mixed momentum and possible range play again. Resistance at 1.0800 remains major upside level for the day and if it breaks the pair might head to 1.0850.

 

NZDUSD is currently trapped in equidistant channel and it is trying to touch confluence points which we could us for short opportunities. As we can see 0.7655-65 region (H3, previous sellers,previous swing) region already provided some selling in the near past so we could expect initial reaction towards 0.7615 and only if 0.7615 breaks we should have a breakout momentum towards 0.7580. In the case of a stronger pullback 0.7685-0.7695 will make equidistant channel upper trendline re-adjusted so we will have confluence ( equidistant channel upper line, H4, previous swing, 78.6 ) for selling towards 0.7655 and 0.7615 is 0.7655 breaks. The range on the pair is not big -86 for the previous 5 days with 78 for yesterday so that is why we should not expect big movements at this point.

 

USDJPY has been put in a heavy range waiting for FOMC. H1 chart shows no obvious movement , but watching H4 we can spot Higher Lows near the support of both intra month and intra week trend lines along with 78.6-88.6 deep retracement. 118.40 (L3) is interim support and as long as it holds USDJPY could bounce to 119.75 region ( H4, 23.6, upper trend line ). Only the break of 118.40 could tank the pair down to 117.90. So there is a possibility that USDJPY will be bought from current levels.

 

USDJPY contained within a Rising Wedge- PRE NFP analysis

USDJPY pre NFP movement is contained within a rising wedge pattern and we can observe Important Neutral zone. 119.36-119.53 is the neutral zone where the price should fall towards after BAD nfp results. The price is rising at the moment but Smart money may have already been pricing in bad ADP number as Rising wedge is effectively a BEARISH pattern. Bad NFP data could pull the price from the edge towards Neutral zone and IF 119.36 breaks the price might test 118.90 (L5) and 118.50.
On the contrary a surprisingly good NFP good target 120.50-80 region (overshoot+stop grab) but very important thing is to OBSERVE and watch how the price behaves IN the Neutral zone - if it gets there after NFP. So from this perspective seeing the rising wedge at resistance, the price should drop towards neutral zone on BAD nfp data.

 

GBPJPY has broken through previous range ( marked in red ) and it is relentlessly going up. Trading is also about being patient, and for a big move we also need a big pullback. From the technical perspective we have a good confluence - POC in the 186.00-186.30 ( L3,DPP) zone. The buffer zone is bigger as GBPJPY has made 282.9 pips of previous ATR and 215 is the 5 day range (!). it also shows a PERFECT confluence at previous swing (blue line )which is a triple top and point breakout in the past with 38.2 fib. We also see a bullish trend line which is holding the pair in the upper range.
So if we get a pullback we should monitor POC as rejections could propel the pair up to 188.00 and 188.55 initially. Also H4 close above H3 level on the breakout without a pullback targets H4 camarilla level.

 

As we could read in previous analysis and trade setups, dip at 1.1150 was strongly bought but EURUSD failed to close above 1.1280 subsequently. Currently EURUSD is forming M reversal pattern with a descending trend line and that could tank the price down to 1.1160 and 1.1130. If the price closes below 1.1130 it should target 1.1065 last line of bullish defense. However, if the pair fails to make a breakout of M pattern it could target 1.1280 and the break of 1.1280 targets 1.1360.
At this point, we could see a drop from 1.1230-1.1220 zone and if M succeeds it should target 1.1160 and 1.1130

 

EURUSD has been contained within an equidistant channel and it is still bought on dips. However from intraday perspectice we need to pay close attention to 1.1370-60 zone. The zone shows a good confluence of Equidistant channel bottom, L4, and 78.6 and the first touch was bought into some hours ago. If the pair proceeds to test it again it may either go for a 2nd bounce or breakout lower. Don't forget that if EURUSD breaks the zone it could proceed to test 1.1285 and it still will be an uptrend but it is seen as a retracement on higher time frames.
That breakout could be used for short trades towards 1.1285 on BPC ( Breakout - Pullback - Continuation ) or long trades on Breakout-Retest -Continuation in THE ZONE. So pay attention carefully. Bounces from the zone target 1.1480 confluence ( Upper EQ/H3).

 

NZDUSD is retracing on intraday timeframes but is still in downtrend after breaking FAILED BULLISH PENNANT. In the context of overall trend NZDUSD can be perceived as bearish and the retracement can be used to fade the upmove. 0.7430-40 zone is showing a confluence (61.8, previous swing, H4 ) and the rejections from the zone could pull the price down to 0.7360 and 0.7320. In the case of bigger retracement 0.7470 zone (retail gap, 88.6) should also provide selling opportunities towards 0.7320 but then we could also consider 0.7250 as in the context of the trend- the bigger retracement is, the bigger the move is.

NZDUSD should stay below 0.7515 for the bears to dominate.

 

Good data coming from USA and general reserve currencies weakness ( EUR JPY) has led to a strong rally on USDJPY pairs as I have been suggesting that it could have been bought on dips. USDJPY has been one of the safest trading instruments lately and again it has been proving it by giving good trending patterns. Previous swing point , L3, DPP, 61.8 fib show great confluence in 120.30-20 zone. If USDJPY retraces in the zone I expect the pair to be bought further targeting 121.50. Adding to that we can also see intraweek trend line which is also holding bullish trend.

 

EURJPY has erased some of this week losses in a retracement which is happening on H1 timeframe. Double fibonacci confluence (50.0, 78.6 ,trend line, H5 ) around 135.35-50 should reject the price towards 134.70, 134.35 and 133.90 where the break of 133.90 will target 133.66. For this scenario to be valid EURJPY should stay below 135.85. SO in the context of trend EURJPY is sell into rallies mode and it is in a positive correlation with EURUSD currency pair.

 

NZDUSD has broken through intra week trend line and currently it trying to stay above H4 region after hitting ATR target ( previous range ) and strong intraday resistance H5. From the technical standpoint we have 2 possible spots to llok for rejections. POC1 comes around 0.7355 level ( H3, 38.2, previous breakout spot ) and if the price rejects from the zone it could target daily highs again. Deeper retracement shows POC2 (L3,DPP,intra week trendline cross,61.8 ) around 0.7330 level and the price could also reject from there. Close and break above daily highs ( Breakout, Breakout-Retest,Breakout-Retest-Continuation) targets 0.7440-50 zone.

 

As we could see , EURUSD has perfectly followed the analysis dropping down and breaking through the big support 1.0950. Today I expect the movement to continue but because all CAM levels have been broken I needed to use Very accurate Pivot Points for next levels. 1.0900-10 is holding the channel so the pair could proceed to 1.0847 level during this day. Any bounces towards 1.0927 could be used for shorts. From the current perspective 1.0900-10 could reject the price ( L5, Channel ) immediately.

[/url]

 

AUDUSD had a poor CAPEX data, there is a scope for more rate cuts and latest technical perspective looks bearish. Adding to fundamental aspects, AUDUSD chart shows a bearish equidistant channel zig zag with 1.7590 and 1.7565 being targets for AUDUSD. Pullback toward POC 0.7690-80 ( L4, previous swing, 38.2 )could be used for short trades. If the pair manages to close below the channel then 1.7590 and 1.7565 will be the targets.

 

NZDUSD has formed another descending channel and currently it is rejecting off 0.7123 POC (channel top, H3, DPP, 38.2) towards L3 - 0.7063. H1 is looking like a bearish railway pattern rejecting off POC and MACD is below 0, which accounts for a downtrend. Break of 0.7055 could target 0.7025 and 0.6980. From technical perspective all eyes are on 0.7063 but if the pair manages to close and break above 0.7130 we could see a deeper retracement towards 0.7156.

 

Last night RBA left the rates unchanged but because there are possibilities for further easing adding to weakness in business capital expenditure in mining and non mining sector. Having a correlation to copper expenditure also, this is deemed as dovish. Aligning fundamental with technical factors, yesterday on Session Recap webinar, i have stated that shorts around 0.7760 on rallies are welcome. As we could see, AUDUSD has had a rally, but we can also see that pullbacks towards 0.7705-15 ( 61.8, H3, DPP ) could also be used for selling into rallies. So we need to pay attention to 0.7705-15 and 0.7760 for possible rejections.
AUDUSD is expected to reenter bearish channel but only if it is rejected from the zone.Stops should be kept around 0.7780 as historical buyers could spike the price above making AUDUSD back into neutral to bullish territory. Targets are 0.7580 and 0.7500.

 

AUD dovish RBA tone, bad Trade balance and Retail sales results pulled the pair down to test 0.7700 zone. From technical perspective AUDUSD is bearish as long as 7800 holds, and we can spot 2 POCs as possible rejection points. First POC comes around 0.7750 zone ( 38.2,L4, and Standard PP ) while second POC ( L3, 50.0, trend line ) comes around 0.7765. If the pair rejects from those 2 points and 0.7800 stands firm we could see 0.7687 then 0.7644. Big volatility in EURUSD and positive correlation with AUDUSD could spike up the pair then reject it afterwards so pay attention to it.

All camarilla levels have been hit last night after AUD Trade balance and Retail sales release so we need to watch pivot points for next levels. Once again we can witness how L5 is indeed a good support.

 

EURUSD dropped on Friday after good NFP and touched 1.1048 - strong static support. Today is NFP Monday and EURUSD is currently in retracement mode, while still in downtrend and 1.1165-1.1180 zone (H3, 61.8, previous swing) could reject the price towards 1.1100 and 1.1050, but in the case of a deeper retracement which could also be possible - 1.1240-50 zone ( H4, double trend line, 88.6) should also reject the price to the lower zones. For a further continuation down to 1.0960 a static 1.1050 support needs to break again and ideally a 4H close below the level would tank the pair down.