Baccarat Sputnik's Notes on Baccarat

The bull shipping business is excellent. Very profitable and entertaining too.

 

Well then Latvia, WHY DON'T YOU?

And your saying that you would post "screenshots" is as much to say that you have nothing and that whatever you post would be fabricated.

What I post is reality. The true Adventures of MDawg.

 

I don't use any Martingale or anything like that. I press into each streak or pattern, and leave the bet alone or reduce if the shoe appears random.

In Baccarat, there are good shoes, and then there are bad shoes.

Here's an example of a good shoe:

A good shoe, is defined as one with a discernible pattern - that repeats. Early on in this shoe, the pattern was what is known as the "chop" bank/player/bank/player etc. Just follow it, there was but one deviation from this pattern in 8 hands. Even better, after this chop pattern subsided, were STREAKS, where bank and player ran for a while, and then switched over. In one case the bank ran twelve times in a row! The rule is to press into all runs, or rather, to at least press anytime a pattern or streak runs more than three times. This shoe was a guaranteed winner for anyone with his wits around him.

The other way to win, is to get up and leave after a good shoe, and to quit or lower your bet substantially whenever a bad shoe presents itself - a bad shoe being one with no discernible pattern. This sort of "hit and run" gambling actually does work, and if everyone who gambled got up and left as soon as he was ahead, the casinos would all go dark in a very short time.

Of course naysayers will scoff at such tactics. "Hit and run? How does that change the house advantage?" They will tell you that over time, the amount of winning versus losing will even out and the only loss will be attributed to the house advantage, which, as noted, in Baccarat's case, is 1%. In other words, pass a million dollars (the amount of money bet is called your "handle") over the betting circle, and you'll lose $10,000. - guaranteed. This fails to take into account though that in reality, the house advantage has very little to do with how much money typical gamblers win or lose at Baccarat.

Big Baccarat players routinely hit the casino for multi million dollar wins. Happens every week in the big casinos. This is by no means a common occurrence at other casino games like blackjack or craps, a big win at these tables might be a couple hundred thousand dollars, rarely will someone come in and take the casino for millions at any game other than Baccarat. But there are also routine multi million dollar losses at Baccarat, where high rollers lose their entire credit lines in a relatively short period of time. This is because in Baccarat, almost no players bet the same bet ("flat betting") or anywhere near the same bet, on each hand. They jump their bets around massively, between as little as a hundred dollars to as much as twenty thousand if a regular limit player, as much as a quarter million, if a high limit player. Most Baccarat players sit at the table intending to either win big, or lose it all trying. At the end of each session, the final result has nothing to do with the house advantage, and if the game were truly fifty fifty, with no house advantage, the end result at almost all sessions would be the same for most players - win big, lose it all, or walk away even (which is what some players will do quite frequently too, be down, end up even, and just leave). Session results that reflect a 1% loss almost never happen, and since they almost never happen on a session by session basis, they cannot happen when extrapolated over time, either.

What most "gamblers" (using this term loosely in that most commentators on gambling sit at home and rarely play, especially not at any high levels) fail to understand is that a game like Baccarat, while ostensibly as random as say the roll of the dice, or a coin toss, or spin of the roulette wheel, isn't exactly the same sort of truly independent event. What happens in one coin toss has nothing to do with what happens in the next, but also, each coin toss is truly independent of the other - there is no set pattern of results. In Baccarat on the other hand, once the cards are set in the shoe, the results are fixed, if a given shoe has a thirty bank run in it, that run will remain and will happen no matter what other hands are played before or after the run. So a Baccarat shoe may be likened to coming up to a slot machine that is set to pay, a lot, or pay frequently - or not. Sticking around once you've chanced upon that slot machine that will keep paying, is all that is required to collect, and collect big.

Most anyone will agree that there are good Baccarat shoes, and bad ones. Here is another good one:

in this shoe, the pattern is "player runs only one" - this pattern was broken only a few times in the entire shoe. All that was needed in this shoe was to bet the bank, and bet it big, after each player win, and keep up with that bet, pressing it, into each bank run. Why, this should be clear to a child. I myself won big on this shoe, and I was barely betting. $26.5K ahead for this shoe.

Ohhhh yeah!

The point being, that when presented with a good shoe, a good player should be able to realize it, quickly, win big in that shoe, and then leave afterwards ("hit and run"). When presented with a bad shoe, he should be able to lower his bet, or leave because it should become quickly apparent that things are not happening. This outcome - good shoe, or bad shoe - is set once the cards are shuffled and set in the shoe. Discerning a good shoe, a good situation, from a bad one, comes with time and experience in Baccarat, but again gets back to that Baccarat, while random in the sense of there is no real way to predict the result of the next hand, does present itself as a series of events that will either present higher odds, or lower odds, or winning.

Getting back to the slot machine analogy, walking up to a good Baccarat shoe is liking starting to play a slot machine that has been set to pay off more frequently, versus one that has been set to pay off less frequently. The luck of walking up to the right Baccarat shoe, might be just luck, but where the skill comes in, is in pressing your bet and taking advantage of such shoes.

As one of my compadres who routinely bets $5000. per hand at Baccarat when appropriate puts it, "Let me tell you something about This game. When given the chance, you have to bet big." And of course what he meant was, when given the chance to play a good shoe, with a discernible pattern.

 

Agreed. good shoes and bad shoes. Those good ones. Consistency in a shoe is key. I don't pounce and go for huge wins. I do a bit of UAYW and will take a lot of small wins. I hae pressing with a big bet and giving it back. I think a good way to get more on a good shoe is to jump into a Fibonacci. Not too drastic but can reap some good wins. If I lose once in the Fib I back up a coule steps and try it again. If twie then I restart normal.

 

Growth industry.

MDawg: Your example is exactly why when players claim that shoes are pre-sorted against negative martingales (players betting against a streak continuing, meaning the cards are somehow “rigged” to produce long streaks and bankrupt them) I respond with the comment that if anything it’s the opposite.

Every true whale I’ve seen that has done well over time bet heavily into the streak continuing, via pressing/parlay/etc. Casinos would be much better off pre-sorting decks for chops than vice-versa.

Agressive positive progressions betting on streaks to continue, particularly banker streaks, are what give managers nightmares...not some smalltime negative Marty player “winning all the time”.

 

I have seen so many players lose it all betting against even short streaks versus experiencing both for myself, and others, heavy winnings pressing into streaks.

During my last trip, I had a player run where I pressed into it, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000, 2500, 3000, 3500. I kept winning every hand on that run, SLAMMING the winning cards on the table and shouting every time, and there was a guy with me at the table, the only other player, who got excited and jumped in to bet big on the run too. I didn't enter that player run right at the beginning. I had actually bet bank a couple of times and lost, but the way I play, if I lose on the opposing side a couple of times, I jump ship to the other side. I go with the flow. Other players will keep doubling on the side that has lost for them, and this, I believe, is stupid first of all stupid because any kind of Martingale betting is stupid, but also because betting against the trend is also stupid.

 

Hi Sputnik,

Looking forward for additional posts from you in this thread started by you.

 

Agreed.

 

Stephen and all ...
The same old common comments, choppy or streaky table and jump on board when the shoe is favoring your placed bets.
Same old nonsense, nothing new.

I will show you something completely new thinking to tackle even events.
Not your old common nonsense.

Now here is a free selection based upon Sputnik's March Concept - google if you don't understand the concept - has over 60.000 views on (bet selection forum)

Each single is one event by itself
Each series of two is one event by itself
Series of three and higher is one event by itself

The odds is one in three

Now you will see 123456789 ... 10 11 12 ... 20 25 30 in a row with two out of the three events striking
There are three existing combinations when you combine them into sequences including two out of three events mentioning above.

Here is some experiment you can do ...

When you see singles and one series of three or higher you can count how many times or placed bets it takes to get a series of two.
Singles will produce a direct loss and a series of three or higher will result in break-even (tie bet) and a series of two will result in two wins.

Other way is to wait for singles and one series of two to show, then count how many times or placed bets it takes to get a series of three or higher.
Singles will produce a direct loss and a series of two will result in break-even (tie bet) and a series of three or higher will result in two wins.

The third one has not been tested but the principal should be the same.
Series of two and series of three and higher will result in a direct loss, then count how many times or placed bets it takes to get two singles.
Series will create a direct loss and an isolated single will result in break-even (tie bet) and two singles in a row will create two wins.

To fast simulate this you can use Dozen and Column with a roulette simulation software and see the sleeping event for 123456789 ... 10 11 12 ...
20 25 30 ... times in a row coming in cycles.

Now there is an opposite reaction and result from this where you only need to place two single bet's and have the chance to strike several times in a row catching both singles and series of two or singles and series of three and higher or series of two and series of three and higher.

One test achieves +70 units after 1000 placed bets flat betting and riding do waves using Sputnik's March Concept.
And to do this ridiculously easy to win, try to catch one event twice within six attempts and apply the Ching A Ling Method ...

Cheers

 

It would seem that all Sputnik is doing is gearing towards trying to sell some system. If so, avoid like the plague.

It's interesting though in that what he seems to be saying is "There's no way to predict what will happen" and at the same time "But if you follow my system you will win."

If I understand him correctly, he is saying that in certain shoes you will win and you won't need any help, but in certain shoes you will never win and should lower your bet or leave, and his system allows you to detect when you are in a bad shoe and should lower your bet to minimize losses. This is essentially the exact same thing I am saying, except I am not promoting any formula or system.

Let's face it, either what happens in a shoe has predictive value, or it does not. If it does not, nothing will help you win in Baccarat. My experience is that some shoes do follow a pattern, and others do not. The key is in realizing which type of shoe you are in, and betting accordingly. The proof that what I do (which I don't call a system, as there is no mechanical rigid system to my bet units) works - is the piles of cash and casino Verified Chip Win checks I have accumulated over the years.

 

Nonsens most members know me and know I am not selling - what I do is to point out where and when and why to place a bet - is much better than screenshots of winning money that proves nothing - you can not and will never produce a better selection and will never post and show on in public - because it does not exist ...

Have a nice evening
And I have been around gambling forums for over ten years and never sold anything ...

CHeers

 

Whatever you have to say you're speaking in general.

I've posted shoes to illustrate.

If you could take the shoes I have posted and apply your formula to them it would make whatever you are saying more clear. Then again, I have posted winning shoes - are you saying your formula only helps to detect losing shoes?

Let's step back a moment - as Mako and others have mentioned, the biggest Baccarat wins come from shoes with streaks. This is my own personal observation too, my biggest wins come from shoes with long runs in them. Your system would not allow a win during such a shoe, or would it? Please apply your formula to the shoes I have posted in this thread.

 

Now you are saying that streaky shoes are the only one that produces a winning concept - my opinion nonsense - can you start to show where and when and why to place a bet to catch a strike - no - you arguing me speaking in general terms and I will explain - I have no interest spending 20 pages to explain one approach among many - it has already been done - so why to repeat and wast time and effort - if you or any other is interested to grow as a gambler you only need to read the topics that have been mentioned - 60.000 views does not prove a winning method or concept - but sure catch the interest from the majority of gamblers because they have never stumbled on a similar approach or find anything like it, ever - and that alone has value ...

Ching A Ling with punters reporting same success as topic starter indicates a value and describe where and when and why to place a bet.
That you never will do!

Sputnik's March Concept is a new way to look at how to tackle and catch very long strikes lasting a whole shoe sometimes.
Or winning two in a row if that is the gambling style one prefers.

Cheers

 

Sputnik has a proven record over time across multiple forums, he's a great contributor to the online community. Good guy for sure.

 

Theory doesn't book cash. What I do, has, and does.

 

LUCK >
When preparation meets Opportunity . ( author unknown )

 

Lucius Annaeus Seneca is the author.

Sputnik is really one of the few posters worth to be read.

as.

 

Personal Note

Because of the Corona Virus - do I have time - because there is no Tennis or Football Trading that is my main interest.
I will withdraw 4K from my Sports Trading Bankroll and use them with online baccarat to show the concept above with live pictures.
Record and upload.

Consideration for the first test:
Three Shoe Signatures - play one or all - not made up my mind ...
Six-level staking plan with five steps each.
Target, record live online baccarat sessions and upload all videos.

Cheers

 

Considering the following staking plans - not made up my mind yet ...

Staking plan one ...

Profit ...
LEVEL #1 - $1, $1.50, $2, $2.50, $3, & $3.50
Recovery ...
LEVEL #2 - $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, & $7
LEVEL #3 - $4, $6, $8, $10, $12, & $14
LEVEL #4 - $8, $12, $16, $20, $24, & $28

14 Euro
27 Euro
54 Euro
110 Euro

Staking plan two ...

Profit ...
LEVEL A - 1 1 2 2 4
LEVEL B - 4 8 8 16 16
Recovery ...
LEVEL C - 2 2 4 4 8
LEVEL D - 8 16 16 32 32
LEVEL E - 6 6 12 12 24
LEVEL F - 24 48 48 96 96

Base level = 62 units
Recovery 1 = 124 units
Recovery 2 = 372 units

Will use Betfair and maybe add another 2K to cover the second staking plan.
Total 6K

Cheers