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Baccarat Stadium play 2019 February to August

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Punkcity, Apr 2, 2020.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I think we must define what "luck" is since it can mean different things to different people. As ND as stated many times Baccarat is a game of luck. I agree with that but it doesn't mean making wagers in a random throwing mud at the wall kind of thing. To me it simply means an absence of a defined mathematical edge. Because one is using "statistical limitations" and experience plus MM doesn't mean it is a game of science like BJ for instance. I suppose skill, experience and discipline contribute to that luck.
    Is it true that chop is the majority? Maybe it's a matter of perspective? If 1's and 2's are chop then they are 62% or majority but we can't bet both at same time so whatever we wager approximates a 50/50 outcome. If we bet OLD win 50%. If we bet FLD we win 50%. :)

    So........? the trend is your friend!
     
    judge likes this.
  2. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Good post
    Yes perhaps a suitable definition of luck is needed, as I assume luck is often referred to on this forum as the wishy washy form you state re mud on a wall. I do believe in luck but not in a huge regard to baccarat , I’m not a pure math person I have used various aspects of it but I would come to state lucky as the definition you have posted using stat limits, experience, acquired skills ( both positive and negative) discipline, intestinal fortitude and not changing girls because a pretty one just sat at the table, unless of course your method is really not working at all.
    The chop question is 50 , 50 on bank and player as you stated some shoes more so than others. My bias for chop is not on the main road, I never play the main road .
    I think craps posted awhile back that I’m on a different level he’s actually correct and I didn’t take his comment as an insult.
    I don’t play banker or player.
    Banker or player is only the vehicle that you can bet a unit of chips on , you cannot bet on cockroach road , if I’m playing croad because it’s choppy the bank bet or the player bet is only the means for the bet to be waged. You all play bank player therefore you cannot work out my entry points.
    I have posted in black and white I play only the other roads I need the bank play to result BUT I don’t need the bank player to make my decision on the next bet. I bet b or p for the financial return.
    I put a weighted average on each of the roads as posted they change as the game unfolding much to craps charging but that’s how it’s done.
    The degree of finesse required is experience, skills, discipline , things that most of you call luck because you cannot think of anything because you all think the same , it has to be a mysterious bet selection based on a whimsical flight of fancy because most of you haven’t a clue as you all play banker or player as the decision Lol.
    So imho chop is dominated the roads downtown just for the fact it’s in columns
    Do some homework practice, practice, play , succeed. Not rocket science.
    As stated previously you readers thank jimske he’s done your homework, and I have done some for you also. Re read the thread stop asking stupid casino employees questions. Get outside the box or not, I care less.
    As a passing comment you should see how I play roulette EC and a huge thanks to gizmotron for reading random thread that has made a real money earner for me in baccarat increasing my % and also my application to roulette which I can play between breaks etc.
    casino employees attitude lol. Cheers
     
  3. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    A lot of people will scratch their head trying to digest what you are potraying. The best way to describe yourself is Luck does decide win loss but one has to position himself to be lucky.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  4. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    A lucky person almost never admit he is lucky but preferred to be labeled as a person who has skill in PREPARATION MEETS OPPORTUNITY which is of course the same thing.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2021
  5. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Fortuna is very fickle and soon asked back what it has given .
     
  6. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    Excellent realization of Rosy Rosie but what should we do when she abandon us? Too many people waited for her ( comebacks ) and that is the one thing which do more harm than good. Try to have more options or ways of deciding B & P and use the one that Rosie favors for the moment in time.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2021
  7. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    You've made a lot of presumptions here. But you are probably correct that most here just play or just consider the main road only. Not all though. We lay our money on P or B. So semantics even if we are actually guessing one of the roads to either turn red or blue. The guessing part is the luck part. Like Craps has said (I think) we need a reason to make a bet. That reason should be easily described. Unless, of course, it IS Rocket Science after all!

    "chop is dominated the roads downtown just for the fact it’s in columns" I don't know what this whole sentence means. The weighted average of the roads is something I haven't heard before. Can you give an example?

    I play the roads but generally in a different way. But the roads change their signature the same way the Main P and B Road does. Usually short spurts of chops or streaks. The idea is to jump on some of these and hope they continue. With practice we can get an idea of how the P's and B's outcome will effect one of the roads. That can help. But. . .I play the Main Road as well. There's no magic. It's all the same.

    Today I played the "Punkcity Way" or as best as I guess how on the second shoe after winning 14 units on the first shoe my way. Here's the shoe as I played it. Naturally if it was a losing shoe I probably wouldn't post it! Lucky shoe. Lots of opportunities that lasted longer then usual. LOL.

    WW L W LL WWW LL WWWWWW L W LL WWWWW L W L W LL WWW LL QUIT

    I started playing FLD on the Big on the 5th column then switched to OLD after one L and another betting the longer still on the 4 Banks lost but went back to the OLD on the Big until LL then jumped on the Main with OLD and finished the shoe betting chop. Quit after the 3 B you see went P. After that P rest of shoe went B P BBB PP B P B P BBB P B PPP if you want to see how the Main effects the Roads

    See? Not really so hard to say why and when you bet.
    3.8.21.jpg
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2021

  8. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm I guess I’m just lucky then , lucky strike rate , lucky to outrun the tsunami of variance. Probably best to quit while I’m ahead.
    The chop down town roads is probably because I view it through rose coloured glasses and it’s probably not a quantifiable realistic approach. My ocd must kick in when ever I see columns and now I’ve taken my rose coloured glasses off , gee I can see runs or 2 or more, I’ve been lucky I guess or just blind ignorance. The recent lockdown here in skippy island has meant that my usual supply of monkey entrails is not readily available ( monkeys are not native to skippy island) and my predictive capabilities has been obviously curbed. I usually just flop the whole carcass on the screen beside me at the stadium and if anyone asks I tell them I’m eating it and just blend in with the other people eating at the machine. Lol.

    The weight averages well that’s probably redundant also and quite possibly just a figment of my imagination but some roads seem to be more important than others, you know unsealed road, but bumpy, sealed road with traffic lights, then freeway road with tolls, stop when you lose etc. as all roads led to Rome they crisscross each other at some point, well I thought they maybe did , but I guess not now.
    To play your shoe posted jimske I could but as you have read on this thread posts by me to other posters regarding replay of posted shoes I would always be wary of cognition bias on my part. ( serious sentence that one) I do better with luck as I actually play as the hand unfolds.
    That last sentence is perhaps the main reason I gave up back testing ( a few years ago about 6 actually, ) against played shoes from the past as I believe most people can be influenced by data fitting either consciously or sub conscious, imho . I found I was at the least.
    Even though I say I don’t play the main road , on very rare occasions I do, but of the 5 roads it’s the least important to myself. As far as my assumption that most people play the main road only I do acknowledge that some players do play all at various stages such as yourself jimske but in my humble opinion you are a rarity and possibly the only one this forum that came to an understanding of this thread. Ergo imho very few play on the other roads statement.
    I will have a look at that shoe later and write it up in such a way that each hand will be reviewed as a single event rather than 40 or 50 hands in a block, maybe a few days time for me to forget the block results then I will play that shoe. The curse of photographic memory although I had done my best over the years to do as much damage as I could to it. Lol. Cheers
     
  9. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Wow. Lots if reading to get to the point.

    Paragraphs would help to skip over extraneous verbage.

    If it cannot be math or science explained then it's luck. Otherwise it could be in the skill category. But, nah, this isn't basketball.

    If you'd like to explain using an example shoe I would suggest using new ongoing data to prevent backward looking.
     
  10. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Lol

    ok

    verbgarbage it’s a pandemic lol.

    Is that better?

    Cheers.
     
  11. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Here is an already played basketball game of mine post previously this thread .
    I played fld , old , ( chop, or ping pong you call it whatever you like ) and swapped in and out as needed.

    Even though this was played before I had read the r. r thread I do believe I had been practicing r r to a degree as I did acknowledge the single, double, and trip etc as they occur.

    They are more obvious to me now I’m more aware of it.

    If this is too much for some readers to read just google gloss over it.

    You aren’t missing anything of importance, I was really lucky that day as all the stars lined up for me.

    I also seem to have chosen a lucky spot on that particular rng game so yeah I was stoked.

    I almost ran around the casino telling everyone how good I was.

    I won’t re type the shoe but will run a comment if needed but I would think fld, and old pretty much cover it.

    When it was a wrong decision I lost, when right etc.

    Cheers
     
  12. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Luck is for the rabbit, hey hey.
     
  13. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    The ones with legs or the one that’s missing bits ?
    Cheers
     
  14. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    The shoes posted by me this thread are played shoes/ games from rng stadium.

    I , like yourself , write in a book as I play it is with notations, squiggly line, number, x and o’s red or black marks, slashes , - or+, circles, brackets, triangles to indicate my attention if I look back as I play or later in the future . It is designed by me for me and I understand it fully ( workbook notation)

    Others would not follow as its complex to them and distracting, understandably. I built the notation piecemeal subtract or add as needed over the years.

    The notations are a key to my thought process at the time sort of measure how lucky I’m feeling or not, I’m able to review that game and as I have a photo graphic memory it’s pretty much on rewind on a tv screen once I’ve read or more accurate looked at the page I did from a year or more ago.

    The notation stops me from cognitive bias on the review of past games/shoes played. I do agree to records but it’s not a deal breaker after a few hundred thousand hands play.

    Cheers
     

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I guess what I am getting at here is having the ability to teach so another can replicate success. To me that's the criteria that differentiates. One can argue that winning is a skill. I have a hard time with viewing a game of chance with a negative EV as a game that can be overcome with skill. That is why I say it's luck.

    Can a skill for Baccarat be taught? After pondering this for quite some time I say yes, at least to a certain degree. If that's the case then luck goes out the window. But then we must be able define and explain the skills involved in a concrete way to impart them on another individual. Therein lies the rub. Lacking skill we only have a mathematical solution that, if one exists, anyone an duplicate.
     
  16. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Jimske this is an invitation to you only, as you have read this thread there is an email address you can contact me on, we will agree on the right password via this forum to verify you are you and I am me.
    We can discuss this privately, if you are not interested then no harm no foul. Cheers
     
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Check your inbox
     
  18. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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  19. Ordinary_people

    Ordinary_people Active Member

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    @Punkcity

    So far i already play about 157 days stragiht using pure flat bet like u do. Like i ever post in this forum i just believe can win with flat bet this year 2021. From what about 10 years in the past. I dont believe it.

    Still make profit. But just small profit in unit.
    I play with banker win deduct 5% commission.

    From about approx 1650 hands bet.
    My win rate bet approx 51,2 % from 1650.

    So my net profit maybe just around 28 unit

    My day bankroll just 3 unit.
    So my max loss per day range 3 - 3,5 unit because banker commision.

    I think that something wrong with my method because thats a big different from your result with my result. +195 unit with +28.

    My bet selection so far just look the main road.

    Do you mind give me advice ?

    If can keep in touch you by private, please let me know.

    Like give your em*il here in sentence so i can contact you because i am still cannot PM.

    Thanks before
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2021
  20. Ordinary_people

    Ordinary_people Active Member

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    Amaze 56,6 % win rate. If i could maintain at 52 - 53% rate i already satisfied.
     

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