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Baccarat Stadium play 2019 February to August

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Punkcity, Apr 2, 2020.

  1. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    You are right about that. I will be quiet from now on when I'm at the tables.

    However, just a couple of nights ago, what I said to a player probably saved him a lot of money.

    There was this one player who was betting $2,000 a hand and when I first got to the table he lost 4 in a row losing $8,000 and he was down to his last $2,000. What's odd was that there was a clear trend of single chops in the Cockroach Pig board and it went on for like 8 in a row while the Main Road was just a mess. I sat down and said something like "How come you aren't following the trend in the Cockroach Pig board?" as he clearly wasn't doing that. I started betting the single chop pattern using the Forecast board and he followed and that trend continued for at least 6 more before it broke. But by then, he made $12,000 back minus $2,000 loss when the pattern broke, so he was up from what he had (minus the commission) when I first got to the table.

    Then, none of the boards had any obvious trends so I stopped betting but that player was betting just about every hand and he was losing again.

    I've seen enough so I just walked away looking for another table.
     
  2. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    It's been only like a week or two that I've watching the derived roads and I've seen some really good runs.

    I was at Caesars last night playing Pai Gow Tiles and from my seat I could see 6 to 7 baccarat boards from all $100 minimum tables.

    One table had a trend on Small Road which had a 4 chop pattern going, i.e.

    BRBRBRB
    BRBRBR
    BRBRBR
    BRBRBR
    R

    B == Blue Solid Circle.
    R == Red Solid Circle.

    That pattern broke on the 6th column's where the red continued for 5 in a row.

    If I was betting at that table, I would have followed it after the 9th B, i.e. 3rd column's first B. That would have netted me 14 units as I would have lost on the 6th column's 5th row where Red continued for 5. Then, I would have quit there.

    Only two women were playing on that table and they were mostly gesturing to the dealer for free hands instead of betting that pattern. As a matter of fact, whatever little number of hands they were betting in that run, they were losing.
     
  3. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Remember it wins until it doesn’t, take a break come back later etc.
     
  4. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    Ever since I started using the derived boards about a week ago, I have won on every session anywhere from 1/2 unit (because of the commission) to 10+ units at $100 as the unit size. It's only about a week, but it's still a good winning streak. Thanks again to op. I was probably lucky as well finding tables to bet on with some type of trends going on at any of the derived boards.

    When I'm not at the tables, I practice online at Starplay (in au) along with the score app mentioned on this thread as Starplay does not have a forecast board. I have fared pretty good on that site as well (no real money though) using the derived boards until I ran into a brick wall when there were absolutely no obvious trends or patterns to follow. Then, it became only a guessing game and I lost like 15+ units as my guesses were a lot more wrongs than rights and I could not follow anything in any of the roads.

    One night at Bally's, it was the same situation at just about all live tables (over 15 of them opened at all being $100 minimum) where there were absolutely no long trends or patterns to follow except for maybe a hiccup of IARs whether it be banker's or player's and may be even some type of chops but not very long at that and then it's right back to a whole lot of mess. From what I could tell, no one seemed to be winning as IMHO it becomes nothing but a guessing game when there are no long trends or patterns to follow.

    So, my question is what do you do then?

    Is there a way to bet when it's like that? Or, just wait for something to develop? Or, just don't play and wait for another day?

    I didn't play at Bally's that night and it was a good thing as I'm pretty sure I would have lost since I was pretend betting standing at a few of the tables and most of my guesses were wrong as there were no trends to follow.

    I walked over to Caesars and there were some crazy long trends at a $25 minimum table, but for whatever the reason no one had any money in-front of them except for one player who had about $1,000 in black chips ($100 denomination) but I thought he should have at least three times of what he had as the trends on the Big Eye Boy board were just free money makers.

    Caesars_25.jpg
     
  5. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    I was just at Hard Rock casino in Atlantic City to check-in for my sister's family for 5 night comped rooms.

    I walked over to the Asian pit and out of eight $100 baccarat tables that were open, 4 were reserved. It looked to me like the non-reserved tables were the ones with some really good trends and below is one of them.

    As you can see, there is a single chop trend on Big Eye Boy and a perfect 1-2 chop trend on Small Road. Looking at the Forecast board, they were predicting the opposites so the question is which trend do you follow? This is where I get stumped and don't know which one is the better choice, but considering how the Small Road trend is the longer one, is that the better trend to follow? Or, does the longer trend have a better chance to break so switch and follow the shorter trend? Or, is it all luck and it does not matter in the long run? Logically, it should be whichever is the longer one and keep following it until it's over.

    I have a little girl named Mira who is 10 years old. I have been teaching her how to play baccarat as it's never too early to learn.

    I asked her which one she would follow and she originally said the Small Road since its trend has been going on longer. Then, she thought about it and she switched to single chop on the Big Eye Boy. This is where the Stadium game would prevented her from thinking too long and end up losing as it was the Small Road that continued for 3 more 1-2 chop and the Big Eye Boy broke and went down 4 red donuts.


    Hard_Rock_071722_1.jpg
     
  6. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    On one of the reserved tables, there was this one player playing with about $20,000+.

    In 4 hands, he lost $13,500 when he won 2 hands and lost 2 hands.

    He would have been even in 4 hands minus the commission if he was flat betting, but he wasn't.

    He first lost $7,000, won $1,000, won $500, and then lost $8,000.

    Now, if the big bets were the winners and the small bets were the losers, then he would have made $13,500 so his bet sizing was just terrible.

    The importance of flat betting is real.
     
  7. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Just to reiterate.
    The flip side is also the thread mentioned that sometimes no bets are available ( there are always bets available but not necessarily a winner bet) in that case simply DONT bet.

    If you want to bet without seeing something clear to bet on don’t use this suggested method. This is part of the discipline mentioned through out the thread.

    Keep it simple, you can’t force it to play your game plan.

    You can only play your game plan when the table is playing your game plan. If it’s not take a break , so what if you don’t get a bet in today? You still have your bankroll for next time . If you are worried about not having a bet today then re read the thread you are missing the point. Cheers
     

  8. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Nothing obvious =don’t bet.
    Cheers
     
    judge likes this.
  9. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    Understood. My plan is set then. Thank you.
     
  10. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Bbbwwaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, guess I'm still shock that cats are still kickin around this trendings, patterns capturing, shoe readings, go with the flow, presentments, roads drivings and other foolishness and nonsenses, hey hey!!!!
     
  11. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    I don't know what to say. It sounds to me like you don't believe Punkcity. Personally, I do and I am thankful to him whether my journey on this pans out or not.

    Also, you left out flat betting and looking for the positive result over the long term, which to me are more important than anything else as the bet selection criteria based on the derived roads are all subjective to individual's interpretation of what's going on the boards and I know it's not a guaranteed thing to make you a winner all the time. But, if you have enough patience to wait for trends and bet, it's more likely to work than not; I could be wrong. For now, it's working for me even if it takes me betting only a few hands for the whole shoe. I'm not greedy; when I win a few units and things get choppy then I quit, when I get a long trend win then I quit, then wait for another day.

    I also understand that there is a much smaller ratio of the trends as to a whole lot of mess, but I got all the time in the world to sit and wait for the trends to develop as I practically live in the Atlantic City casino hotels without having to drive back and forth from home. I've now stayed in these casino hotels for the past 2+ years straight except for a month in Vegas. As long as my kids continue doing the on-line classes I can stay here as long as I want; or at least until the casinos stop giving me the comped rooms.

    I always prefer playing by myself and get as many free hands as I can when there are no trends. By myself, I can literally go through a shoe on a live table faster than the Stadium game as I don't even touch the cards and let the dealer just deal them out even when I'm betting. The only hold up is the dealer adding the commission chips when I win on the banker.

    Honestly, it's rather simple what needs to be done to maximize the winnings and that's being able to capture the trends as early as possible and get the most wins as possible out of them and then knowing when to stop betting. If there are no trends, then no betting just like what Punkcity said.

    Even if I do end my stays in the casino hotels for whatever the reason, it wouldn't be a problem to continue this venture when I'm back home as PARX casino is only 10 minutes from my house. I also have Live and Rivers casinos less than 30 minutes away in Philadelphia, but I don't believe they have as many baccarat tables as PARX. IMHO, more tables, more chances of a trend developing, no?
    But, I know one thing for sure, doing martingale will lead to the death of a bankroll faster than anything else as I've seen too many people lose everything in a very short span.
    I have nothing to lose for trying out what I learned from this thread. Flat betting, not betting when there is no trend, and knowing when to stop betting will prevent me from losing badly. If I can continue to patiently wait and catch as many trends as possible and then maximize the winnings from them, then I can only benefit. Sure, it's all easier said than done. That's why I practice online at Starplay to make myself better at it.

    I would love to see you play at a table and see how you do, and if there is something I can learn from your plays to make me a better player then it's a huge bonus.

    By the way, what's with 'hey hey' at the end of all your posts?
     
  12. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Many way to skin a greased pig, you can flat bet banker only, every hand , you can be one of the great martybation club , you can be a degen gambler using labby progression. What ever work for you. Knock your self out . I don’t give a rats arse.
    If you feel the need to flat bet bank for every hand in the shoe for a average of 2units profit per shoe, ( 1 hr to 1/2 hours approximately) six shoes a session,( 6 hours to 12hours approx) good for you.

    If I can generate 2units profit in 3 hands ( 3 minutes max) and end my session there , good for me.

    If others wish to apply the suggestions to help management of emotions, bankroll, and the re learning not to just give their money needlessly to the casinoverse, but to actually make the casinoverse work for one’s self, to potentially be one of the few people to end the session in profit or minimum losses and no longer be the typical degen gambler that I absolutely LOVE that funds the casinoverse “Infrastructure” that you and I enjoy so much.
    Yeah whatever greases yar pig. Cheers
     
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  13. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Lousy gamble this is
    The flat bet method of soxfan on bank to give himself 2 units profit on average per shoe , he plays 6 shoes a session. Each to their own. Cheers
     
  14. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Good post, you don’t need to bet every hand, etc. good luck you get unlimited free hands nice one.
    I tend to believe the shoes are more chop than long runs of 3,4,5,6,7 etc. there’s a way to play chop shoes. You may understand as you watch more hands unfold that is just chaotic, you can actually get to a semi reliable stage of nomination of the next hand to be played as “A losing hand” when you are able to successfully state more often than not that the next hand is going to lose YOU can bet that losing hand to win. Think about it.

    I use a day book to enter the state of play I’m monitoring or playing, as per the thread I put notations down on the sessions, I can reference at anytime and see that the next hand nominated by me should be ( example) a player, it loses, if I do this a couple of times in a row my nominations are losing then I can actually bet AGAINST what my initial nomination for the next hand ,
    example
    1. Banker. Lost (original selection criteria here)
    2.player. Lost ( original selection criteria)
    3. Player. Lost ( selection etc)
    4 . I nominate banker per selection criteria here so NOW i bet OPPOSITE banker which is player ,it wins but according to selected criteria it is a loss.
    5. Per original selected criteria next hand need to be a bet on is player, here once again we can bet the opposite of player and win on the losing bank winning bet.
    6 . continue to bet anti original selection criteria until your next loss bet , which when you look at the selection criteria was the first win.

    It can be a difficult thing to understand this post. It took me awhile to get my head around the fact that my losing selections can actually be a winner selection if I could suspend my need to be correct and bet accordingly.

    I strongly suggest you , general you, don’t immediately try to bet that way without paper practice first. Can be confusing, so nominate desired bet and mark the new bet as actual. This way you can review the process and judge for your self your hit and miss ratio.
    Good for thought only.

    But for simplicity sake you don’t need to play as I just suggested, you can plug away quite nicely doing what your doing now. Cheers
     

  15. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    Geez, the spam filter is at it again censoring my reply to Punkcity's last post (post #394).

    So, I'm going to re-post what I said without quoting Punkcity's post and see if it passes.

    "It's been a long day for me taking care of my two little girls and dealing with my sister's family on a vacation on me, and on top of it all I still have a job to finish for my work as I'm a programmer and I can work from anywhere remotely; thus I can do what I'm doing now living in casino hotels for 2 years straight. I am very tired at the moment, so I didn't fully understand your logic on the first read but I will re-read it again tomorrow after I finish my job and get some decent sleep. If I still do not fully comprehend, then I hope you don't mind me asking about it. Thank you."
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2022
  16. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    Before I started my work, I decided to go down to the casino floor for a bit to see what's going on.

    There were 9 baccarat tables open. 6 were reserved and only 3 were open to anyone.

    It just happened that a 2-3 chop of 2 banker & 3 player run on the Main Road coincided nicely with the long red run on the Small Road.

    Everyone at the table was betting $200 to $500 a hand on that run and they all made good money until the pattern broke.

    I have no idea which board they were using to bet the next hand, but either Main Road or Big Eye Boy would have worked.

    The table was full, so I could not get in but if I was able to then I would have won at least 4 units and quit.


    Ballys_071822_1.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2022
  17. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    On another table which was reserved, there was this woman whom I saw lose at least $10,000+ last night in a matter of a few hands and quickly disappeared. What's odd to me was that there was a trend in one of the derived boards and she was betting against it. Or, whatever she was betting happened to be against that trend.

    Tonight, she had $20,000+, but I don't know what her initial bankroll was.

    In a few hands, she lost $14,000+ with $10,000 table max bet loss in the last hand, and she was left with only 6 Orange chips, i.e. $6,000.

    Now, here is the kicker. I have no clue what she is using to make her bet selections, but the Main Road board had no more than 2 down trend for a while until the last 5 hands which were relatively choppy and that's where she had the 3 LIAR of -$14,000+.

    However, on the Cockroach Pig board, there clearly is a long 2 chop run, i.e. 2 blue, 2 red, 2 blue, 2 red, etc, which went on for 6 in a row.

    Obviously, she wasn't following that trend as her bets were against it on her 3 losses.

    She bet the remaining $6,000 and this time for whatever the reason she actually followed that trend and won. I was shaking my head in disbelief, because had she followed that trend she could have won quite a bit instead of almost losing all of $20,000+.

    She should come and read this thread and she could become a better player. Then, she would be grateful to Punkcity, too.


    Ballys_071822_2.jpg
     
  18. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    Sorry, I meant "Small Road" and not "Big Eye Boy" in my 5th sentence. I am really tired now and I don't know if I can complete my job before the morning call. I better get to it instead of losing time on this board...
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2022
  19. Lousy Gambler

    Lousy Gambler Member

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    On my 3rd re-read, I believe I actually understand what you are saying. Believe it or not, I've done something similar before but not exactly as you said.

    I will have to practice that on StarPlay and see what happens, but it will only work for me when things are just a whole lot of mess and there are no trends going on as when there are trends I almost always win. Basically, if my bet selections or decisions aren't working and I'm losing terribly, then I will bet the opposite of my decisions.

    Thank you for spending the time to post that methodology.

    Hopefully, I won't have to use it too much on the live plays, because that means I'm already losing.
     
  20. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Very true, we shouldn't be so precious about any bet selection really. If it's not working, well, what are you going to do? Run up a marty and potentially lose your ass? It's what I see a lot of people do. It's like they have to be right and the game should yield to them and whatever it is they are expecting to appear.

    I don't bother running W/L registry's anymore because I can incorporate the concept in a different way, but take any of the more popular bet selection ideas like FTL or OBL etc, etc.... Run a W/L registry on them and so many times you will see a single W interspersed by a lot of L.

    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L

    You can try and fight your way out of it, but what's the point? Flip it and the L's become W's.
     

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