Sports Betting superbowl discussion

For anyone looking to bet against the Pats.

Take a look at the teams that NE has played as far as defense.
They havent faced a full strength offensive team like atlanta.
They faced 6 backup QBs.
The faced Buffalo, jets, and miami.....ALL NON DESCRIPT OFFESNSES......facing then twice each.

denver, seatle..poor offenses.

cincy, cleveland, balt, rams, SF......all ave to below ave offenses.

So I think their defense may be over rated....just based on the poor quality of opponents.

However they may win, by haveing a bunch of 12 play drives eating up 9 minutes. each,,,,keeping atl off the field.
Atl is not good defensively....easily can give up over 30.

If ATl allows alot of points, and NE can slow down the game....I think NE wins.

thats where I am going

the public is going over
the big money bets are going under

NE and under.

 

Seems a little odd to me, Larry. You make the case that NE's defense is over-rated because they have played few quality QB's and offenses and then you select NE and the under. Seems contradictory to your point.

While you make a good point about New England's defense having benefited by what is perceived as weak opponents and QB's played, I don't like to hold that against a defense. They don't get to choose who they play....all they can do is play who is on the schedule and shut them down and that's what New England did. This same argument could have been made 2 weeks ago, and anyone who based their wager on this New England defense overrated because of weak opponents argument would have picked Pittsburgh, because they have a stronger offence and QB than what NE had faced. How did that work out?

Furthermore New England defense doesn't have to "shut down" Atlanta's offense to win. All they need is one or two key stops, maybe an interception at a key point late in the game and they have a way of creating those type of things over the year.

Here is some more interesting data that has emerged in the last 24 hours with Matt Ryan winning the MVP. 8 times in the last 30 years, a season MVP quarterback has taken the field in the superbowl, as Matt Ryan will do today. Their record 0-8. And there are some pretty big name QB's on that list that lost the superbowl as a season MVP, like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning (twice), Cam Newton, Brett Farve, Dan Marino. What can you conclude from that? I have no idea.

Belichick game plan often will take the opposing team's best player out of the game. His philosophy is to make someone else beat him. I don't know if he will be able to take Julio Jones out of the game or minimize his damage. But if he does, Atlanta's offense may seem not nearly as potent.

Here is my conclusion: My head tells me Atlanta is the slightly better team. And they are getting 3 points. Generally, I would view that as value. But there is an intangible of Bill Belichick. The guy (who I don't much care for) knows how to win. And he will do whatever he needs to win. A trick play here, an on-sides kick there. Cheating is not even out of the question. So I wouldn't bet against him or the Patriots (at least not any significant money). I will be routing for Atlanta because I don't care for Belichick or Brady, but won't bet significant money.

I have a couple little small (entertainment) bets on stuff like New England to win the 3rd quarter at +140. If they receive the second half kickoff as they often do, that seems like value to me. Other than that I will just be watching and hoping for a good, close, entertaining game, something that eluded us football fans through most of the playoff games this year.

 

The under is not against my original gameplan I expected.

I knew that NE, likes longer 14 olay type drives that takes up time. My vision was that NE would take the lead and just keep grinding against the offense of ATL.

Along with that gameplan that I imagined, I also bet the props where NE has the most time of possession and number of plays.
I also bet that NE would have more rushing yards because I thought their running game would be consistent in their time consuming grinding style. In the end.....last I looked after game...both teams had 104 yards. A push

It took overtime to kill my under. But fully admit its a wrong pick as I am not one to whine that I really won in regulation time. It was however a reasonable bet as NE did dominate time of possession in the first half AND the second half.

The NE defense only gave up 21 pts which is reasonable for the under....but higher than their average. I was thinking more around 24 for ATL when i thought of how thew game would play out.

In the end the game didnt play out anything like I thought(except for the NE defense allowing 21 and NE grinding the time and number of plays).......

I even had the prop...."a team would hold a lead over 13.5".......I thought it would be NE.....but won it anyway.

Over the course of superbowls ..most common combos are fave/over and dog/under
I went against the expected pattern.....and was wrong.

In the end I lost on the under and won on the props I mentioned above

other props I won or lost were as follows

Julio Jones under 7 receptions.....won
Total number of players rushing on both teams over 7.5.....lost
A new england player would score 2 touchdowns.......won
The first challenge will result in an overturn......won
NE would be the first to miss a FG.....push
Amendola over 1.5 receptions......won
longest TD pass longer than longest FG....lost
Most net yards ATL...............lost

 

I had 4 entertainment bets on NE to win each quarter for $25 each at + odds on all of them. Since they were a 3 point favorite, I figured they'd at least be expected to win 2 of 4 quarters, winning me money. I was rooting for the Falcons to win (I don't like the dirty cheating patriots ), but figured I'd may as well put in some seemingly +EV bets for entertainment for small amounts.

Unfortunately, the my bets lost AND the damn Patriots won.

It was a great 4th Q and OT, I'll give 'em that though.

 

thats the way I bet the superbowl
I treat it as one game out of a few hundred that i bet each year.

I could find more value in colorado vs Cal college basketball, or Washington Cap vs La in hockey on sunday than in the superbowl game.

Its all about finding value.

the superbowl is fun.....and betting keeps interest for 4 quarters especially since some recent ones have been blowouts.

But for me as a bettor on the financial side..its just another game.....a game with little real value compared to other less significant games.

By the way the books got hammered with the pats and over.

And the 7-1 bet///THERE WILL BE OVERTIME.........they finally had to pay out....after decades of keeping the money.

 

I never bet on the bowl, it's an absolute lottery!! I like the OT bet..