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Roulette Systems and methods available, will lose because ...

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by beat-the-wheel, Mar 24, 2015.

  1. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    Hi Zengrifter,
    Thanks for your reply,

    May U please tell more about the -EV.?
    Thanks in advance.
     
  2. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    That would mean charting spins that happened in the past and then expecting that to somehow have any meaning on the next spins which I would be betting on. So no, that data has no meaning. It could be 120 wins one session, 90 the next, 101 the next - the future spins will be *unknown wins / *unknown losses = house edge ---
    because they haven't happened yet and this is a game based on math with a sprinkle of random mixed in.
    Knowledge won't bring a person the ability to predict the future. I have studied roulette for over 3 decades now and trust me - when I sit down at the wheel - I have no idea if Red or Black or 0 or 00 is going to show up.
    I can however improve my chances by knowing math, probability and understanding how random works - and again, that said - the house pays less than the odds of any betting location showing up.
     
  3. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    I start a new thread:
    TurboGenius and "Edge", let debate

    lets debate there!
     
  4. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    There is an adage, "little knowledge is dangerous thing". House has an edge because of the faulty payout it offers on all the bets of roulette, keeping a slight tilt for itself. It never changes with any way you bet or choose not to bet. Even the so called "advantage play" does not snatch this "edge" from the casino. Every player tries to earn irrespective of what is set in stone, be it a drunkard gambler playing martingale or a tech savvy guy using a hidden roulette computer to track the speed of rotor vs ball.
    Despite the "edge", variance affects the players most and if the game runs without variance, only a foolish player who keeps 1 chip on all 37 numbers of roulette, in all spins, can guarantee sure win for casino. House edge only increases the chance to win for a casino at micro level, in no way, it can guarantee winnings. An "advantage players" for example a bias analyst also tries to take benefit of the positive variance caused by the bias. Same goes to a craps shooter. He tries to create the variance by his specialized shooting techniques. Same goes with a dealer's signature guy or a wheel clocking genius whether he is using a hidden computer or doing it manually.
    If you are not using any kind of money management( many feel it is useless and many feel the opposite), only way you can win is by variance, be it a coincidence or you induce/identify it, in any manner. If any of you are really into "advantage play" of any manner, must be knowing the fact that even with all the so called "advantage" you get to face bad sessions yourself too. That is the power of Variance the beloved child of randomness and a saviour of casinos.
     
  5. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    No, an advantage player snatches the edge from the casino, in whatever game he/she is playing. The AP wins because they have the advantage, not just because of variance.

    AP = Advantage Player. Someone that plays with an edge OVER the casino.
     
  6. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    And where does the edge comes from? Can he change the payout? No. He either expects or induces the positive variance to earn.
     
  7. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    It has nothing to do with variance.

    For example, in BJ a hole carder gains the edge by seeing the dealer's card, which enables them to win at a rate that exceeds the normal expectation.

    In Bac. a sort player/card turner wins by recognizing specific cards, or by having the ability to determine with a higher percentage which cards are favorable to their placed bet, again enabling them to win at a rate that exceeds the normal expectation.
     

  8. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    "exceeding the normal expectation" is the variance(positive one). Variance means scattering from the mean value. If a player doesn't get(whether by covert or overt act) a variance, he won't win. That is the sole difference between a random player and advantage player, a random player expects(prays or hopes) to get a variance while an advantage player can either identify and use a variance or can even induce one.
     
  9. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Again, it has NOTHING to do with variance.

    It has to with the fact that an AP has the ability to make a prediction/bet based on additional knowledge/skill enabling them to win at a rate that is greater than what basic probability would dictate.
     
  10. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    and that is what I am saying as "inducing variance". If you do not win more than what you lose and stay at what basic probability would dictate, you can not win. You have to go above the mean to win.
    Dr, we can keep arguing for the sake of argument but we know we are only talking about the same thing, with different set of words.
     
  11. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Variance is canceled out over time, allowing the AP players edge over the casino to dominate. The size of the edge helps the AP determine how long they must play in order have a high percentage chance of winning.
     
  12. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    The "streaks" are just one color if you stay on the same color, or why should you not, much easy to see. If I play EC as an outside bet I follow the last and bet the same as long I am not down. If down I start the misscredited system I learnt from Florence Martingale. It will soon or later be a run, and then I use martingale as up on a win, lose slow until I recover. If I am deep in the hole I use Grand martingale up on a win, it can recover a few hundred on a good run, to the price of a small value chip a spin.
     

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