Casino The Adventures of MDawg

Don't worry, I know exactly what you meant about fake Rolexes... I have a few 1-2k watches already and I'm ready to move up.
These are twos that I'm looking at:
https://www.luxuryofwatches.com/rolex-pre-owned-yellow-gold-daytona-116523-custom-champagne-dial-ceramic-bezel/
https://www.luxuryofwatches.com/rolex-pre-owned-yellow-gold-daytona-116523-custom-black-diamond-dial-ceramic-bezel/
For some reasons I like the Two tones.

Are these good choices? And for the right price?
If I do decide to get them, how much do you think I can negotiate down?
Also is it good to purchase online? I'm a little worried wiring them that amount of money, not even seeing the watch yet in person. (Maybe paying by card is better, because you can claim fraud for chargeback?)
I have a few local used watch shops but they only carry a few each. Hard to choose from.
Thanks.

 

Mdawg,
I replied with some more questions on the Rolex, with links for you to look at, but guess that didn't go through.
I'll wait to see if it goes through before re-posting...
---------------
About your baccarat play, even though I admire your success, there is a part where I'm a little skeptical about:
I guess your whole 50k is really your at-play session bankroll? (With of course other available bankroll if needed.)
Otherwise it can't explain for that 15k bet, while 23k down already...
Also it seems like you got down big quite often before making your way back...
Another thing doesn't add up to me is that you seems like a big better (down big frequently), but then doing your table minimum or $500/hand to crawl your way back?
(You must have used some neg progression to start?)

But if you have that ability, doesn't it make more sense if you carefully build up some winnings, then use House Money to pound?
Thanks.

 

I'll comment on the gambling then the watches.

Ideally of course you want to get ahead and then play with the house's money. In some cases I don't even need to play with much of the house's money as I get ahead smoothly, and then just stop – I don’t even need to take the next step of betting all the house’s money on a single bet, as I just – take off! with what I have won, and not bother risking it all. This describes most of my sessions, and for these sessions, when writing about them, I won't always get into details, and might simply mention that it was "smooth sailing" or some such. So while it might seem <<like you got down big quite often before making your way back,>> actually, it seems this way only because I detail the sessions more closely where something remarkable or unusual happened, such as incidents involving these huge bets to come back from a loss.

In case you haven’t figured it out by now, I love to reminisce, write about my gambling as much as the gambling itself. This, as Henry Hill put it in Goodfellas, is what the FBI could never understand

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/440aa37f-dc6e-40a1-82ed-b234a4be11ad

…and for the FBI, read…the average schmuck at these forums who can’t understand why someone like me would bother to post his Adventures online. I love reliving them!

Anyway, how to explain the huge “catch up” bets. Well, first of all, obviously, losing fifteen K or fifty K, while it would be a blow to my ego, and fifteen or fifty K is by no means an insignificant amount of money – but, still, as you point out, (“other available bankroll if needed”), this is by no means all the money I have to my name, very far from, and if I were to lose $50K, or even five times that, I’d be able to pay it without it affecting our lifestyle whatsoever. So that is first and foremost, that there is no “scared money” at play here – I am willing to put the large sums on the line without repercussions in the event of loss.

(And by the way, without commenting one way or another on most of your “deductions” about me, I will say that I am younger than the age you peg me at, which also might better explain my willingness to take risks.)

Secondly, as I mention above, it’s not that I plop these huge catch up bets down all the time, or even often – rather, that the occasions when I do, make for more interesting story telling, and end up fodder for more elaborate retellings than the occasions where all I did was win, and experienced no significant ups and downs. In other words, just because you read about these big swings doesn’t mean that they happen all the time – just that, when they do, they make for more compelling narrative!

In any case – YES, it IS best to play with the house’s money, or at least to press towards a huge bet that follows hard upon a series of progressive wins – for example, 500, 1500, 4500, 13500, 20000 on a streak (or, the more conservative 500, 750, 1200, 1800, etc. – or even the ultra conservative 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, 1000, progression). But, sometimes, it just doesn’t work that way, you end up behind, and your gambler’s instinct just tells you that it is time to risk a big bet, or else face slowly going down the tubes.

That’s about enough on that subject.

The watches – I am familiar with the dealer and he is legitimate, but the two watches you picked are not all-factory – both the dials and the bezel are “custom,” which means – aftermarket. If that weren’t bad enough, unless things have changed, the ceramic (what Rolex calls the “Cerachrom”) bezel is available on most any Daytona EXCEPT the two-tone. So, what you would be screaming out by buying those two watches is – that you’re not a Rolex purist. I mean, it would be bad enough to put an aftermarket ceramic bezel on a Daytona that is available with such a dial, but in this case you’re putting the dial on a watch that would never have such a bezel! I’d avoid these two watches entirely.

My advice remains to stick with 100% factory Rolex – nothing aftermarket. Why all factory? Who cares? who knows? well – your peer group. Don’t ever be like the fat guy I mentioned in one of my narratives who was throwing big bets around – and LOSING consistently – all the while flashing a diamond encrusted aftermarket Rolex. Anyone in the know was laughing at him.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/dbc2310...4-371b5a131abc

 

There are some deals out there right now. A watch that I have been interested in for some time, that is normally well over $30K I found for $26K. But, as I am tempted to pull the trigger, where will I wear this watch? It's Apple Watch 5 titanium all the way for me these days - no times or occasions for the fine timepieces during lockdown.

 

MDawg, thank you very much for your Rolex assessments. I wasn't even aware of the Rolexes' "purity" until you pointed out.
I'll do some more searching and I hope you don't mind pointing out to me whether they're good finds. Thanks in advance.
About your baccarat play, I was thinking very much inline with what you've described. Also:
a) When it comes to Money Management, are you playing a loose style, adjusting your bet sizes based on your hit rate? I can't think a player at your caliber is tied to any systematic bet sequences, like 1-3-2-6 and the likes right?
b) How do you play streaks? Pushing hard or push pull?
c) How do you play dominance?
I hope you can shred some lights in (b) and (c) because even though that should be where players make the most $ on, I just can't seem to master it yet. Thank you.

 

Keep your eyes open there are some deals out there, and may be even better deals as time passes as far as fine timepieces. But yes, stick to 100% factory Rolex with no aftermarket parts.

How I play as far as how hard I press or if I let off on a press might depend on if I am already ahead or reach even during the streak. Many times I ease off when I get even, and sometimes this turns out well, as the next hand the streak ends, and sometimes this turns out to be a waste as the streak keeps going. When I have eased up as soon as I passed even, I have had dealers comment after a great run as to why I let off the gas when "You had us."

The luck of Baccarat, for me, comes when I start a streak with a good sized bet, and it continues. When that confluence of good sized bet and long streak combine, I can practically empty the tray.

As this one regular at the tables put it, "Let me tell you something about this game - when you get a chance, you really have to take advantage" - meaning, that if you're presented with a long run or a very predictable shoe, you really need to empty the tray.

Interestingly though, I've done best over the past two years NOT looking for the home runs, and simply trying to win a few grand each session. With my size bankroll I'm able to do that - win a few grand - almost all the time, and at worst have ended up even, with many shoes ending up with far more than a few K.

I know you want specific answers but there aren't any hard and fast ones. I have learned a lot about this game, and money management over the years, and have managed to do extremely well at it. From my perspective, it is not a guessing game at all.


How about this though - can you recognize the times when everything is going great, and you're winning more than even most of your hands? Can you recognize the times when you're losing more than half of your hands, defying the odds in the OTHER direction? If so, then you should be able to know when to bet bigger and when to ease off or leave the table entirely. Do play at casinos where there are many midi-Baccarat tables open, so that you may move and are not locked into one table if presented with a random shoe that offers no pattern or streaks.

 

Well said.
Do you think in units or dollars/ chips at the table?
Cheers

 

If I sit at a $100. table, which is what it usually is, I spread average 1 - 5, if it's an average shoe, 1 - 10 on a better shoe, more if called for.

When I sit at a $300. table, I have to remind myself that I need to be prepared to go to at least $1500. on some of my bets just to maintain this minimum 1 - 5 spread.

 

Yes, I'm very aware of those times. However, when it comes to dominant portions of the shoe when I win more hands than not, for the longest time I haven't been able to really capitalize on it. I'd go on to win 3-4 small hands IAR, then choose to pick a "favorite" hand to load up on, of course it's always 50/50 to BUST (which in my case sometime I feel like it's really only 30% in my favor after losing many of those loaded bets) and it set me back greatly. There are many times I came out to be even or even losing a little after a dominant portion of a shoe (scratching my head in disbelief). It came down to bad MM and I know it. But recently I'm getting better at it, by doing more of a gradually positive progression and/or push-pull. I really limited those stupid loaded bets to a minimum.
As for neutral, bad shoes .. now I'm trying my best to stay out. Getting crazy about those 1W, 2-3 Ls series. Even my "virtual" bets are incorrect. But luckily now I usually travel to a casino with 10-20 tables going at once so I can really pick and choose. I was killed at my local one before, only have 1-2 tables going and have to LABOR through those sessions...just a morality killer.
I hope you can share some more insights on your train of thought while playing.... or any other tips and pointers in general MDawg. Thanks

 

Sometimes in the past I used to do the virtual bet and as you say above even the virtual bet was wrong. So I got to thinking one day here I am making a virtual bet I’m losing yet some others are winning , what would happen if I decided next bet to be (example) banker and my last three virtual bets are losing how about I bet the Opposite of my initial virtual selection in this case bank now becomes player? I found after awhile I could note on my card a losing sequence- then bet against the decision to become a winning sequence of losses until those wins become loses which indicates my selection are back to the original win selection format I was using. You may need to draw a diagram to work it through. I found it helped me. Cheers

 

Yes understand, sometimes you can get caught out if lose track of right bet size when changing base bet denominator
Cheers

 

Verry Good, Thank you.

 

BTW the Rolex I was looking at, that was a pretty good deal, around $25K or so, actually sold! So, even in these times, there are people looking for deals, even luxury items. I probably should have bought it, but I already have so many timepieces, that it's really more obsessive collecting than any sort of necessity.

 

Thank you

 

One thing that feels good is that we were among the last of the Mohicans to experience the best of Vegas. Last to enjoy massages and salon treatments, last to gobble up self serve ribs in the buffets

last to sit at a table and have the cocktail waitress serve a pot of tea, last to high five other players and the dealers, last to give happy handshakes to the pit bosses, last to pick up your own drinks and food in the VIP lounge, last to sit at a table and have a female player sitting right next to you hit on you, last to loot Vegas for a gang of unsanitized chips, lot of lasts.

Imagine, if you want a towel and want to just pull it off the maid's cart, that could be considered a capital offense these days.

Used to talk about how Vegas might not have been as good today as it was, say, twenty years ago...but today was still fabulous, compared to what may be.

It's a new world now.

 

Yes all new era now nevertheless I still think some more good times to be had . Just need to re adjust to new rules and procedures, easy fix.
Would you mind dropping a cameo at the radar thread it needs a dose of common sense , if you have a moment from scalping the market. If not no problem. Cheers

 

MDawg, since you've frequented Vegas in the past, what are some of your personal favorite restaurants?
When I came there in the past (about 5 times total) I usually googled highly recommended ones. Some good some ok some bad I guess due to personal taste. Just wondering about yours... (doesn't matter if it's buffets, steaks or seafood...) Thanks

 

Restaurants, different favorites include:

Traditional steakhouse: Delmonico's at the Venetian. Order the seafood tower, maybe also one salad and one bone-in ribeye (medium rare of course) - enough food for two. I believe the steak used to be 45 days wet and dry aged but only dry aged these days.
Blue Ribbon at Cosmopolitan, and Bavette's at Park MGM are good too.

Best buffet, lately I like Wynn and Wicked Spoon at the Cosmo - I hope these haven't gone the way of the Dodo!

For Asian food, high end, we like Zuma at Cosmo. Whatever else you get, add a pot of the rice with mushrooms, vegetables and black truffle. For more moderate end, Tim Ho Wan at the Palms (Dim Sum). In town, there is a great inexpensive Thai restaurant - Weera (on Sahara). Most anything you order at Tim Ho Wan or Weera will be good. Note: AVOID Nobu - salty, over seasoned and overpriced food!

Seafood - if you have the time, AND the appetite, try the fixed tasting menu at Costa Di Mare @ Wynn. It's best with the
Grigliata supplement (adds Grilled Shrimp, Langoustine, Spiny Lobster), but you seriously need a few hours and two very hungry people to come close to finishing all the toothsome food they will bring you.

If you're looking for entertainment while dining, Rose Rabbit Lie at the Cosmo is great. Tasting menu (they call it "Experience") there is recommended, but it's as much about the show as the food.

One thing you can't really beat - Hattie B's fried chicken at Cosmo. It's not sit down, it's more for bringing up to the suite, but it's deliciously tasty, to be redundant. Also, if you are staying at Encore, it's a short walk to Tacos El Gordo. At El Gordo I usually just have carne asada but she's into the more exotic lengua and cabeza tacos. Next door to that and even closer to Encore is Tacos El Pastor which is in the old location of El Gordo, and is about equally good.

 

Yesterday at the market I got some steak - albeit high end, 100% grass fed, but it wasn't prime dry aged and yet the ribeye cost $20. a pound, and the filet mignon (tenderloin) $25.

Given these prices, how much will steaks cost at high end restaurants when Vegas reopens? In March 2020: the 20 oz. bone-in ribeye at Delmonico's was $60. - the 16 oz. split bone rib eye at Blue Ribbon, $67. and $92.95 for a 22 oz. dry aged bone in ribeye at Bavette's ($69.95 for Bavette's Chicago cut 16 oz ribeye).

Meat prices have dropped a bit at the supermarket in the past week but are higher than they were in March. Given higher prices and scarcity for red meat, will these already high prices for a top Vegas restaurant steak also go through the roof? If you're on a full comp you don't really even glance at the menu prices other than to feel satisfied that you're getting something on the house, but still - not everyone in the restaurant is on a full comp, and given the fear of dining in public post-coronavirus in the first place, will people additionally be willing to subject themselves to potential infection seated at a restaurant AND overpay for that privilege?

 

Thank you for the descriptive listings. I definitely will try some on my trip there on October. Vegas is definitely been known for good food so it'll be well worth it. Just personal choice I don't really use Player Card/comps anymore. I'll pay for my pleasures, usually with winning money nowadays.
And I agree with you, now is not the time for people to pay for overpriced food.
Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend. Thanks again.