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Baccarat The Best Way to Play Baccarat

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Frank Scoblete, Mar 26, 2015.

  1. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Can u guess which shoe will get choppy or if it is choppy now, it will remain ahead the same? Trying to guess what is going to happen is the worst trait a gambler has. You can not guess the next hand or next 5 hands or 10 or even full shoe. The outcomes can range anywhere from all the permutations and combinations possible.
    Only scientific expectation, is to expect a near equilibrium thing in 10-20 shoes of Players and Bankers where Bankers should be a bit ahead due to drawing rules.
     
  2. Tony Baloney

    Tony Baloney Member Lineage to Founders

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    With Blackjack shoes, I have noticed over time that if the most recent shoe had zero dealer busts, you may with some confidence expect some dealer busts, and maybe even quite a lot, in the next shoe. Seeing as the dealer bust average is a hefty 28.20%, this seems to show that the shoe has some kind of memory for catching up its average. But of course, Gamblers Fallacy for decades has already proved to us over and over that cards, dice and steel balls cannot possibly have any kind of memory.
     
  3. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    There is no bias ever in the shoe. Your view to see the shoe in different fashions is pretty biased.
    There are two kind of fallacies:
    1. What is happening as trend or pattern will most likely continue
    2. What is happening as trend or pattern will most likely end.
    Actually, it is always in confirmation with the probability it carries with usual variance. If in last 5 flips, only "Head" has hit, the coin will not bend to give higher chance to "Tail" further, nor will opposite happen.
    Randomness is the bodyguard of gambling. No guess is better guess.
     
  4. Tony Baloney

    Tony Baloney Member Lineage to Founders

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    • "Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy." -Dr. G

    • "Suckers have no business with money anyway." -Canada Bill Jones, Legendary Three-card Monte Dealer
     
  5. Michael

    Michael Member

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    What do yo mean that there is no bias in a shoe? I totally disagree. Long opposites or repeats DO happen and I play to that pattern and win more than I lose. Does a shoe stay the same way entirely....NO. Do I play on the pattern at hand....YES.
     
  6. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    There is no pattern in random trials. Even if you see one forming or ending, it is still not better than 50:50, in any manner. The so called patterns are illusions meant for your self. Kind of self hypnosis. Once you simulate all these stuff, you won't dare to claim that it helps even a bit.
     
  7. Tony Baloney

    Tony Baloney Member Lineage to Founders

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    That's settled that then, Michael. Your patterns were all in your head. Um, congrats on getting them out of your head and into your wallet. Sims schmims
     
  8. Michael

    Michael Member

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    Thank goodness for that...that's where my headaches have been coming from!
     
  9. JSTAT

    JSTAT New Member

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    EZ Baccarat's Dragon 7 side bet can be beaten along with the Player Bet with card counting.

     
  10. GlenBaccarat1979

    GlenBaccarat1979 Active Member

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    Played the game for 35 years or so, this is so far from any kind of consistency---it is laughable as wonder how anyone could even ponder wagering on it.

    The problem not exploited by any system seller, writer or game teacher is that in baccarat, anything and everything can win or lose. There is a counter 'happening' to each and every possible trend/pattern/winning results--chart, explanation, etc., and like I said anything can be twisted to show a bias. Too bad, writers and discoverers of these bias's magically forget to explain that they might not work up to 99% of the time as well.

    If they did and I am wrong, the casinos would have pulled the game long ago.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2016
  11. JSTAT

    JSTAT New Member

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    Advantage Play expert/casino consultant Eliot Jacobson did a a card counting analysis of the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet that was published on the Wizard of Odds site in 2011 https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/dragon-bet/. Using a linear count simulation, Jacobson concluded a shoe depleted of more eights and/or nines than normal provided an advantage for the Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1. I upped the ante by including the JSTAT Count (2-9=+1 and 10-K=-2) with a side counting of 8/9's and have been very successful playing in casinos. It only makes sense that a winning three card banker 7 cannot happen with a ten card (on plus JSTAT Counts) along with the 8/9's as a third card in this non-linear count.

    As an additional bonus, I discovered the JSTAT Count with the side counting (and the lack of) of 8/9's remaining in the shoe with minus counts works very well with Player Bets in conventional baccarat. A deck particularly poor of 8's/9's and ten value cards diminish the power of the third card rule favoring the Banker side. Because any 8 or 9 and ten card value as third card determine many times the standing Banker action where the Banker takes the most of its advantage. Moreover whenever a deck is poor of 8's,9's and 10's frequently, it means that more small-medium cards are available to catch for Player side as third card. Obviously the (slight) main effect favoring the Player side is due to the second issue, along with the fact the Player bets are payed 1.1 and not 0.95:1
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2016
  12. GlenBaccarat1979

    GlenBaccarat1979 Active Member

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    So many of the Dragon 7 wins are within the first 20 hands of the shoes. There are no official stats as that could ever be uniformaly accepted on when they do appear.

    I was at the casino 3 times this past week. I do know the highest majority of the side bet 7's would be tossed up either in the beginning or around hand 30 - 50. Always plenty of 8's, 9's and face cards left. Such a crock.
     
  13. JSTAT

    JSTAT New Member

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    My baccarat count for winning the Player bet at conventional baccarat is an occurrence that was thought to be impossible or not to exist, or a Black Swan. You can believe it or deny it, but at least try it at home.
     
  14. Qswaggerstupid18

    Qswaggerstupid18 New Member

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    I've been wanting to ask this question for the LONGEST ...!!! Ok my best winning streak ever is 14 hands in a row!!.... all flat betting.... Ok, can you say the system I use is luck or some sort of skills... I mean me personally don't believe in LUCK!!... but I also thought if I flipped a coin 14 times, I HIGHLY DOUBT I WILL BE CORRECT 14 TIMES IN A ROW, without some type of skill!!... what did I experienced at the time!!??... I prefer someone who have great knowledge in this game to answer!!?? Thanks

    ()
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 2, 2016

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