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Roulette The "fallacy" of "Gambler's Fallacy"

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by TurboGenius, May 28, 2017.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    lol. Nice
     
  2. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I've been working on hottest numbers since 1995. I began to program sims from scratch back then with the X-Talk language called Lingo for Shockwave. I published live action graphs on the internet way back then. I know how they act. I know that if you get 9 hits in 300 spins you break even. I know that 14 hot numbers is good. I've seen hit rates of 18 to 26 in 300 spins. You can win with hottest numbers and you don't need a broken wheel to get them. It was those ten hour sessions that started me on even chance and 2 to 1 randomness back in early 2000. I had my first elegant pattern in 1994. You are late to that one. Don't you know you have lost the debate. The narrative has moved on.
     
  3. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    You are right. So it begs the question. You had better have an idea what to do if it does not hit enough, don't you think? You are a one trick pony. If you can't find a broken wheel you are shit out of luck.
     
  4. Michaela

    Michaela Member

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    If you're talking about choosing numbers which are more "random" looking (in the lotto), then yes, that's what the mathematicians recommend. But the principle doesn't apply to roulette because the payouts work in a completely different way. In lotto, the prize money is divided among the winners, so it follows that if you select numbers which are rarely chosen by the players, and that number wins, then you will get a bigger share of the prize.

    So the best way to pick the numbers is randomly. Not because you actually have a better chance of winning, but because IF you do win, you will likely win more because the selection will be less likely to have been picked by someone else (there is no strategy which will maximise your chance of winning). This only works because the majority of lotto players are ignorant of basic probability and think that they have a better chance of winning by picking those numbers which are "hot" or "due".

    Of course, this has nothing to do with roulette because your winnings are not shared.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
  5. Michaela

    Michaela Member

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    BTW, in the lotto, draws are NOT independent because when a ball is drawn out it isn't replaced.
     
  6. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Ugh

    Nope. Research it again.

    I'm not talking about how much of the prize that you win, I'm talking about getting all of the numbers correct.

    Nope.

    Sir Anyone syndrome again. Each drawing is independent from the last.
    The 6 or 7 or however many numbers that are drawn last week have NOTHING to do with the numbers drawn this week, or next week or the week after. Each drawing is independent from the last drawings results.
    The same as each spin is independent from the last.
     
  7. Michaela

    Michaela Member

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    Ugh to you to. TG, there's no "recommended" way to pick lotto numbers, unless you're referring to some scam site, if you are, then take your pick, lol. No mathematician will recommend one way over any other. Hot numbers, cold numbers, birthday numbers. It's all the same and the odds don't change one bit, just as they don't in roulette.
     

  8. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    and I'm supposed to be the math challenged one. Laughs
    I didn't say scam site, I said what the math experts suggest to increase your odds of winning.
    (You can do that you know).
     
  9. Michaela

    Michaela Member

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    There is no way to improve the chance of picking the correct numbers, but you could buy more tickets. This would be like covering more numbers on the roulette wheel. All that does though is increase your exposure to the house edge. Do you know how big the house edge is on the lotto?
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
  10. Bombus

    Bombus Well-Known Member

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    Me playing roulette...



     
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
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  11. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Could this be the next Tiger Woods?
     
  12. Fossell

    Fossell Active Member

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    I'd say thats the easy bit really. 80% is here to read and learn. The last 10% I think requires more thought. But if TG says theres a simple final step then… (It may be simple once you have it, or you may not see the wood for the trees).
     
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  13. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I just got the sim running in a most basic mode where it selects up to three numbers to use in 140 spin tests. It does not select the very best for the test but does select up to three hot numbers just the same. So there is no consideration for the best number or for changing to a better number. The telemetry shows some very interesting data.

    Code:
    High Point = 1040, Low Point = -460, End Result = 1040, Numbers Used = 16 0,24 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 476, Low Point = -1070, End Result = -210, Numbers Used = 7 0,8 5,11 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 0, Low Point = -481, End Result = -481, Numbers Used = 16 25,36 5, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 266, Low Point = -934, End Result = -934, Numbers Used = 30 25,34 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 180, Low Point = -2295, End Result = -1395, Numbers Used = 18 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 0, Low Point = -2249, End Result = -2249, Numbers Used = 22 5,29 25, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 687, Low Point = -213, End Result = 482, Numbers Used = 4 0,10 25, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 119, Low Point = -2767, End Result = -992, Numbers Used = 1 0,21 0,29 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 649, Low Point = -282, End Result = 468, Numbers Used = 5 0,15 25,21 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 0, Low Point = -1532, End Result = -662, Numbers Used = 17 5,30 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 1147, Low Point = -1018, End Result = 1147, Numbers Used = 16 0,17 0,25 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 935, Low Point = -45, End Result = 935, Numbers Used = 3 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 94, Low Point = -2256, End Result = -656, Numbers Used = 7 0,9 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 1080, Low Point = -1465, End Result = 1080, Numbers Used = 23 0,30 0,36 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 222, Low Point = -988, End Result = -988, Numbers Used = 11 0,18 25,21 25, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 1109, Low Point = -1196, End Result = -1196, Numbers Used = 15 25,17 0,18 25, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 636, Low Point = -794, End Result = -794, Numbers Used = 3 1,7 25,18 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 975, Low Point = -640, End Result = 945, Numbers Used = 1 25,2 0,30 0, Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 0, Low Point = 0, End Result = 0, Numbers Used =  Number of spins = 140
    High Point = 721, Low Point = -199, End Result = 36, Numbers Used = 3 5,24 0,26 5, Number of spins = 140
    "7 0,8 5,11 0," this means #7 at 0 value, #8 at 5 value, and 11 at 0 value. So #8 won once at some point and then never won again in the 140 spins. #7 won three times and stopped being bet. #11 won three times at some point and stopped being bet.

    So now I can experiment with better number selection techniques, cut off points like stop losses and stop wins, and the inclusion of anything we can learn about that missing 10%.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 31, 2017
  14. Fossell

    Fossell Active Member

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    He's not going to say it. Pick the hot numbers. There'll be a lot of slices to share out with that pie though (likewise with the birthday numbers crews). So if you want it all to yourself, throw a couple of cold ones in.
     

  15. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    You can actually play the exact same numbers every week :)
     
  16. Madi

    Madi Member

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    When u look back the weekly result will never get the same set of number. Out of 7 pick 5 or 6 doesnt mean anything unless u correct 7 out of 7. U know what it is ? Its like in roulette pick 1 number each spin and make it correct in 7 consecutive spin.
     
  17. Fossell

    Fossell Active Member

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    Noooo! They say that?
     
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  18. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Turbo, Amazing. You've forced me to consider a fourth dimension to randomness.
     
  19. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    TG i am sure you have a great way tackle roulette as you describe, but i don't understand your comparison with money.
    As i understand it a bias player win between 20K or more with one wheel attack.
    I know about winnings over 1 million.

    So how does that compare to your method, i assume you win around 1,2,3 K with one attack.
    The two ways are two different ball games.

    Cheers
     
  20. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It's simply about unit size, nothing more.
    If I bet with smaller chips and win vs that bias player using large chips - we both win different amounts.
    My goal has never been to make "millions", just to beat the game fair and square using what the game
    provides.
    I don't need to sneak a computer into the casino or find some defect in their equipment - that's not
    really beating the game. It's about as good as finding a ATM machine that is broken and gives out
    a $20.00 bill when you withdraw a $10.00.
    Sure - you can hit it for lots of money but you're not really doing anything other than exploit
    the defect and "cheating the system". There's little-to-no skill in that once you know the machine is malfunctioning.
    A bias wheel player can find a defective wheel and tell any schmuck off the street to play
    number x,y and z and they will win too. That's not a skill, and it's certainly not beating the game -
    it's simply taking advantage of a defect. If money is everything then I suppose it's rewarding to them.
    It wouldn't be to me - we have different goals.
    I have no problem using a smaller unit size and winning fairly against the game without the need
    for any of those circumstances that "they" "need" to have in order to win.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2017

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