Baccarat The Good, the Ugly & Human Nature

no not a Marty. He never said that I never said that either.

 

Ok so you are playing Junkys zigzag 3, using 1, 2, 4, glad it's working out for you. Lol

Just kidding .

And in your case since you are a 1 unit and go hom

So you are playing 1,2,4 using Junkys 3 zigzag, ok I got your grail now..lol

Just joking..

I respect your right not to divulge your unit level but when you make the statements it makes inquiring minds wonder what level one must be playing for 1 unit to be enough, so in your case it's a valid question... But it's ok. Thanks for the input. And if I ever get to that 1 unit mindset I'll let you know personally i could do $1000 unit now.. And then I question myself.. Why don't I...?? So your statements make me wonder... Maybe i should be a 1unit man then go back to poker full time.... Thanks

Yoyoyo CookASock

 

They are mostly happy to get to any table for as long as it lasts because they know it won't last long.

Mostly their winning sessions get interrupted and they're shown the door or 86'd.

And so the cycle continues getting stopped on entry at any nearby casinos, hassled for ID etc. Casinos share threat intelligence with one another.

 

An unproductive and time-wasting way to play. That's what ploppies do. If you have a solid bet selection you find the most efficient way to play and that involves making the most profit with the fewest bets possible. This applies to any business model for any business and that includes gambling. Your way of playing is not efficient and nonsensical. It's what somebody on vacation who has lots of time with their hands does. No serious player would play that way.

 

delete

 

I find it hard to believe that a serious player will play more if he/she has achieved the target...

Playing more isn't equal to more profit, mostly more possibility of losing either some or even all....

Imho

 

All it does is expose your bankroll for a longer period to the infinite bankroll of the casino and this is never a good thing. Get in, get it done, and get out. That saying is as old as the hills in gambling.

 

The only people that use "targets" are people that DO NOT have an edge. They are scared to give back the winnings and thats why they feel reaching a target is important.

If you have an edge you want to play as long as physically possible. The more you play the more you win!!

There is no problem exposing your bankroll to the casino for extended periods of time if you have an edge. You may even find out that the casino doesnt want you playing there at all if you have the edge because they dont want to hurt their "infinite bankroll" as you put it

 

This is true mathematically. Same applies with trading once an edge is achieved, it's all about the turnover.

However variance can be a blessing and a curse.

Even the casino with its mathematical edge can have variance work against it. One of the biggest wins in history happened here in Australia where a group of Asian players won $55 million from crown Casino over a few months, all through some unfortunate variance for the casino.

Let's say someone has a job and that job pays an hourly rate. Do they work until they expire and drop dead trying to maximise the return? No. The work is broken up into sessions we call work days.

Practically there are limits, fatigue is always a factor and besides there is more to life than "working" at a table. I would not gamble 8 hours or more a day just to replace a job, the reason has to be to work much less and get more precious time back for other things.

Ultimately it's a time bound limit and based on that you know how many bets you make and an average hourly rate. If the conditions are not favourable, the decisions per hour too low, why waste your time?

Good players know to ride a favourable opportunity that is worth their extra time and when to take a break, change tables or just go do something else.

Even with an edge there can still be multi session loaing streaks and professional players have to be able to handle that and not tilt and make irrational plays out of frustration.

There is a real human element to deal with if you're wanting it to be sustainable.

 

Play as long as physically possible.. that's sound "theorytically" for me... Good luck doing it...

Humans have limit, weaknesses... Emotion and fatigue are two of them...

I guess that's why many dreams to play like a "robot"... So they could win 'to infinity and beyond...'

Even if I 'could', I choose not to do it...

Life is about choices...

 

"as long as physically possible" that encompasses fatigue

as far as emotion goes.....there is no emotion involved when you have the edge, if your still dealing with emotion you are not at a professional level yet

 

Having an edge...what do you mean by that actually? Keep winning in a row?

Let's say you already won 50 units, and because you have the 'edge', surely you want to win more....

But then you, let's say lost 20 units.... Will you keep on playing? Enlightened me please....

And you're right... I'm still dealing with emotions and I won't dare call myself "professional".... Never will....

My biggest respect for those who can encompass fatigue and has zero emotions....

 

I will stop playing, if I think what I've won is worthed my time and efforts spent...

That's my target, goals or whatever you name it....

On the paper, well at least 1:1 comparison to the amount I'm risking... But I'll accept 50-70% of my initial BR...

 

That is a theory that does not work out in real life. No matter how big your edge is you do not know what's coming next and what kind of trouble you're going to have to fight your way out of. Best to get in get it done and get out. If you think you can just play and play and play because you have an edge that's your ego talking. Just because you have a mathematical edge over the casino in the long term that doesn't mean they can't beat the crap out of you in the extreme short-term.

 

That's just armchair theory.

Enduring long downturns, depsite the edge, losing $200k or more to variance is tough. Don't pretend it's not.

 

If you are playing like that you don't have much of an edge. I rarely have to make more than 5 bets to reach my goal and I usually do it on the first bet. If you have a good enough edge long downturns do not exist for you. If you just concentrate solely on bet selection everything else will disappear. You will have no need for money management and the rest of it. The casino makes all its money in table games on bet selection. On the players bad bet selections. Bet selection is the casinos god, it should be the players god also.

 

I suppose it would be if the player didn't have the proper bankroll to support that kind of downswing

 

Spike,

You are so wrong, when you have the edge, variance is no big deal. It's just the double edged sword that's good and bad luck. When you have the edge, the longer you play, the more you will win.

 

Funny how you make it about yourself but I don't see any documentaries on your amazing achievements. You should be a billionaire by now if you're that good. Why are you not making $500k bets?

Have you followed the journey of professional blackjack and poker players? Long downswings are a natural fact of life and the variance they face despite an edge.

 

You claim to only need 5 bets to make a profit and that you NEVER have downswings "they do not exist" as per your words.

Let's say we accept your claim on the face of it.

Given that every 5 bets you profit 1 unit without any down swings.

You aim for just one unit so that's a 5 unit bankroll if your betting flat. If it's a martingale (lol) then you need a 32 unit bankroll.

Let's say it takes you an hour to make your laser precision god like bet selection of 5 bets. That's ignoring the other 40 spins in the hour. So a session is at most an hour but for you it mostly happens more quickly, usually on the first bet.

Every hour you can grow your bankroll by at least 20% if flat and by 3% if a martingale.

You have plenty of time for piss breaks and to eat and rehydrate as most of your sesisons win their first bet.

Let's assume you play 8 hours a day which is mostly only 8 bets with the occasional longer session requiring 5 bets. Nice easy day for you.

If flat betting that 20% return per session makes 4.29 times your bankroll when flat betting each day and only 1.28 times your bankroll with the martingale per day.

Flat betting, after 15 days your final bankroll is now
15,340,142,258 units, calculated 5 × 4.29^15.

Using the martingale your 32 unit BR with a 1.27% growth rate per day has grown to 83,147,946 units after just 60 days of play. Calculation is 32 × 1.28^60

This is just basic geometric growth based on making 1 unit per 5 bets considering a flat bet bankroll requirement or a martingale bankroll with non existent drawdown, with no need for money management and no losing sesisons because all that "dissapears" as per your claim.

So what should we all believe?