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TurboGenius The improper use of progressions and the Perfect Progression explained - 2020

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
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    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    There are various types of progressions that are rarely mentioned.
    Not just the "named" ones that people have come up - we all know those.
    I'm talking about using a progression properly.

    For example - on a single 0 wheel -
    Let's say there is a progression on a straight up bet - if no win after 37 spins, we increase the unit size.
    Now this seems fine, we do have to recover from the loss of 37 units at this point and the only way to do so is to increase the bet size in order to both recover the loss and reach a profit.

    Now, let's assume we are playing 2 numbers - I'll make them #20 and #30

    4 spins in, #20 appears and it's removed from play... and now we continue to play #30 until
    37 spins have passed and it hasn't won. We are at -5 units and most people will increase the bet on
    #30 since it's been 37 spins without a win. This is where everyone thinks about progressions wrong.
    You have to look at the individual results within the cycle - and not the bankroll balance.

    #20 appeared on spin #4 and made 32 units profit.
    Therefore - there is no need whatsoever to increase (use a progression) on #30 until
    spin #69 - not at spin #37 when the first cycle is over.
    The win on one location "buys" extra spins to cover bets that haven't won yet.
    So is there still a need to win 1 in 37 ? Now for this session we only need #30 to appear
    once in 69 spins and we all know that it will appear 1 in 37 on average.

    So why increase the unit size by the rules of the progression at spin #37 when there are still
    32 spins until it's needed ? This is why progressions are used improperly so many times.
    I'd call it a "perfect progression" when you are aware of your bankroll and know exactly when
    to step up a bet, NOT by your "rules" of the progression, but instead based on your balance.

    Below may sound confusing but bear with me.

    Let's assume a person were to play every number on the table, and remove the winner
    when it happens. We should also assume that the smart player can keep track of the results.

    Here is a complete cycle of spins, betting every number and removing the winner - and keeping
    track of only the profit made by the winners...

    table.png

    So, our bankroll is at -88 units at this point.
    Because +437 units were made by the 22 numbers that DID appear....
    and the 15 numbers that didn't appear caused a loss of -525 units.

    Now let's assume we are using this "perfect progression" - the cycle is over,
    we are -88 units.... we are in no way going to increase the bet size.
    Consider the "pot" of 437 units we have put away (virtually of course)

    Most gamblers have this "fault" in their thinking - they have played this system
    for these spins and are sitting at -88 units, "time for a progression to save the day !"
    Of course this doesn't work - it will tank, we all should know this. Most don't though.

    Let's instead think about our pot of profit - and how to reach a bankroll profit to end the game.

    We have to take our pot of 437 and subtract what is needed for a profit to occur,
    so 437 - 89 = 348 is now in out pot. 89 is needed to result in 1 unit profit since we are at -88.

    So, every spin from now on will have one of two results.
    A played number will win
    or
    A non-played number will appear, subtracting X from the pot.
    X is of course the total on the table being played ( 1 unit per played number )

    the next spin is #22, our pot which is 348
    the next is #1, the pot is 348
    the next is #14, the pot is 348
    the next is #36, 12 is taken away - the pot is 336
    the next is #15, the pot is 336
    the next is #26, 11 is taken away - the pot is 325
    the next is #33, 11 is taken away -the pot is 314
    the next is #1, 11 is taken away - the pot is 303
    the next is #1, 11 is taken away - the pot is 292
    the next is #9, 11 is taken away - the pot is 281
    the next is #26, 11 is taken away - the pot is 270
    the next is #26, 11 is taken away - the pot is 259
    the next is #35, the pot is 259
    the next is #33, 10 is taken away - the pot is 249
    the next is #11, the pot is 249
    the next is #5, 9 is taken away - the pot is 240
    then 5, 9 is taken - the pot is 231
    then 23, 9 is taken - the pot is 222
    then 28, the pot is 222
    then 29, 8 is taken - the pot is 214
    then 31, 8 is taken - the pot is 206
    then 25, the pot is 206
    then 18, the pot is 206
    then 35, 6 is taken - the pot is 200
    then 22, 6 is taken - the pot is 194
    then 20, 6 is taken - the pot is 188
    then 35, 6 is taken - the pot is 182
    then 10, 6 is taken - the pot is 176
    then 5, 6 is taken - the pot is 170
    then 31, 6 is taken - the pot is 164
    then 25, 6 is taken - the pot is 158
    then 31, 6 is taken - the pot is 152
    then 13, 6 is taken - the pot is 146
    then 6, 6 is taken - the pot is 140
    then 6, 6 is taken - the pot is 134
    then 14, 6 is taken - the pot is 128
    then 16, 6 is taken - the pot is 122
    then 7, 6 is taken - the pot is 116
    then 32, 6 is taken - the pot is 110
    then 30, the pot is 110
    then 36, 5 is taken - the pot is 105
    then 5, 5 is taken - the pot is 100
    So we continue on......
    2,7,23,10,12,7,13,28,9 and our pot is 55
    and on...
    15,34 (win) and our pot is 50
    22,36,4 (win) and our pot is 42
    21 (win) and our pot is 42
    31,11,9,10,22,14,4,7 (we're subtracting 2 now as there are only 2 left) our pot is 26
    34,21,16,36,31,33,3,35 - our pot is 10
    17,24,3,26,5 and our pot is 0

    So in recap - this is 113 spins !! We are just now at the point of needing to increase bets
    in order to pull out with a profit.
    Doing so at the end of the first cycle would have been terrible,
    but instead (at this point) we are -85 in bankroll - almost exactly the same as what we
    started with at the end of the first cycle which was 78 spins ago.
    There was no need whatsoever to use a progression this entire time, because
    the early win in the first cycle bought enough spins to get us to this point without
    the need for any progression at all.

    This is something everyone should learn, instead of increasing bets when they aren't needed -
    increase only one the "pot" from the winners has depleted. Now only does it buy you much more
    playing time without the famous "keep throwing money at it until we win" ideology of
    most progressions.

    ===================

    Another way is to assume the bets on the table are winners.... and calculate that into the mix.
    It might be easier for some to see it this way instead of what was explained above - although it
    is the same thing exactly.
    So we have 2 numbers left at this point being played, I'll assume both are winners (+70)
    and we are at -85 units now. That means that we can't win and produce a profit.
    2 units on each would be (+140) - so we can use this progression from now on.....

    Now at spin 127 our bankroll using 2 units per number is -141, it has to go to 3 units each
    (+210)
    The next spin one of the two appear and we are at -39 with 1 number to go.

    (remember the 37/38 people go into a casino thread....)

    Now, there is no need to bet 3 units on the last number is there ? 2 is fine. (+70)
    Spin 144 and it has to increase to 3 units again.
    Spin 156 it has to increase to 4 units.
    Spin 157 it wins and we're done....ending the session in profit.
    This produced a 1 unit profit for every 5 spins played on average with incredibly minimal risk.

    Losing bets were supported by the winners, at such a rate that NO progression was needed until
    much later in the session. Using progressions in this manner is the right (all be it harder) way to
    do it properly.

    Thanks for reading.
     
    Spider, Smitridel, trellw24 and 3 others like this.
  2. bertoguillows

    bertoguillows New Member

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    In summary, to beat randomness, you must calculate the perfect progression and it would be done?
     
  3. bertoguillows

    bertoguillows New Member

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    and the important question here is, how to use this in a positive progression?
     
  4. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    Progressions do not change the odds of picking the winning number better than 1/37 (single zero wheel). The payout is below the odds, therefore you are a loser in the long run. Whatever happened in the past, you won or lost 20 times in a row, the next spin is independant of the last, the odds do not change on the next spin. The maths of the game are very simple, set in stone, that's why it still exists all over the world since centuries.
     
  5. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    :)
    I read ALL your posts.
    I follow the Instructions and try to Repeat the results.
    :)
     
  6. Rinad

    Rinad Member

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    colorado
    it is helpfull to carry a card (3x5) that shows the results in how many units you get paid per bet paid.
    if you have a hard time with math in the meddle of a game it can be of great help.
    it is vital to know at all time where you stand so you dont over bet. i see too many players overbetting early instead of waiting for more spins. I remember times when I could of buy myself more spins by calculating a little more in details.
    playing 1,2,3 numbers gives us plenty of time to do that. now i know better.
    R.
     
    TurboGenius and mr j like this.
  7. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    Good post turbo. Thanks
     
    TurboGenius likes this.

  8. CarloDarlo

    CarloDarlo New Member

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    Sin City
    I cant quite understand how it fits with your other post. So your saying instead of playing for a profit while using a progression. Play for breakeven then restart the sequence over to then obtain profit at lower chip levels to lower variance/risk? It's not a grand marty 1 win isnt saving the day. You need multiple hits to hit to clear debt + profit targets.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020 at 9:42 AM
    gizmotron likes this.
  9. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    My two cents on using a progression in the chase for hottest repeaters. That applies to Reading Randomness and EC's too. The notion to recover and to then let the winning process take care of getting ahead is a very good one. Here is what happens if you can get on to the three hottest numbers. They might hit from 12 to 26 times in 300 spins. You can't know what you will get before it happens. But you can know that three long patches will not happen back to back and still let that same hot number be a hot repeater. You can know the nature of the hottest numbers by experience or by being told.

    If you use a few progressions just to take smaller bites at the recovery and while in a hot patch of repeats then you can use a negative progression during a win streak. People love to turn their minds off and use them during a losing streak. That's clearly counter productive. So the skill at hunting hot spots must be developed to have this skill. Many will say that this skill can't be developed. But if you have the experience you can learn that the perfect storm to beat this skill is very rare. If you want to make things work, almost all the time, then you must learn to read the conditions. People like this repeater method. I like applying the same tactics to pattern hunting in EC's.

    I've been doing this for years. You attack while the conditions remain good. It's not easy to explain. I use trend patterns because they are visible as patterns or trends while the conditions and win streaks are good. You can know the same things about when a hot number goes into a cold patch. It's one thing for the hot number to change and go cold. It's another thing all together when it just has a cold spot and still remains as one of the very hottest occurring numbers. Stay out of the cold spots with your few steps of a negative progression. Take smaller bites at the recovery. The majority of the time the hottest numbers feed the bankroll.

    You will have a perfect storm losing streak. Just play a game that allows you to get killed once in a while and you still live to play another day. I never commit the full bankroll. It's always in parts and the recovery is always in parts. Get your money back when you are in a good patch. This requires the skill to recognize hottest patches. You can develop that skill. Ken shared a very good method for getting on and off of hottest numbers. So information of that is out here.
     
  10. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    There is no perfect progression. There never will be. Conditions change. The quality of observed characteristics of randomness change all the time. You must have an adjustable strategy. Once you get stuck in one tactic, progression, you will get killed off at the mathematical expectation. The quality of a section of a session must be evaluated as you go. There is no such thing as a constant condition other than very large numbers of spins. I try to see the dominant side of any EC. It comes and goes, it gets all jumbled up at times. You must know what you are getting and to know if you should apply a progression that matches the conditions. I often use only a two step progression. I often hold at the higher step and then play it as a flat shelf. It's always about winning the session. Chip away and you can get there with little effort.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2020 at 3:13 PM

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