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Craps The Mob Boys' method.

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by Craps, May 16, 2021.

  1. DarcyDelprat

    DarcyDelprat New Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2021
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    USA
    wooww, ahaha, well done!
     
  2. Craps

    Craps Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
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    Location:
    Las Vegas
    The House Edge for Pass is 1.41 % and for Don't Pass is 1.40% . Mathematically you are right but I will call it a tie. Too close to call.
    There was once an argument about whether it is better to bet $5 on Pass with $20 odds OR the whole $25 on Pass Line with no odds. There is no dispute mathematically but in the short run, the $25 on Pass line only seems to win more. The reason being the Come out roll 7,11. The argument is the point is 6. After 4 winners, the one with odds wins $16 more but all it takes is one come out roll 7,11 and the $25 with no odds wins $20 more.
    In the short term would you put $2 on 6,8 to win another $3. When you win it's good but when you lose you lose 2 more. Should be no dispute but the lesser odds seems to come up tops more often. That's the dilemma with gambling.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2021
  3. Baccaritic

    Baccaritic Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2019
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    Location:
    US
    HOLD ON A MINUTE
    You said the Pass Line was the best bet, and it was for the reason of come out winners. That is wrong. You CANNOT say I'm RIGHT and then say it is TOO CLOSE TO CALL, and it is a TIE.
    I'm trying to be polite here, but wtf?

    This is exactly what I mean when I say Craps is a simple game that can be made very confusing if you don't understand the math of it because there is too much action.

    First of all, it isn't really a fair comparison, but I get it. Let's just start with the fact that there is no HE grinding against the $5 free odds bet. So the $20 isn't going to win less, because the $25 isn't going to win anything. The $20 will lose less, the $5 is a wash.

    I'm not going to let you build a straw man around a bunch of short term come out 7's and 11's. That is short term variance and it means nothing. Why is it everyone thinks that you only lose in the long run? and that all short runs are favorable? I'm going to build a brick man out of short term come out 2,3 and 12's to counter, and an iron man out of a desert of come out 7's amidst an ocean of Point-7out's.
    All right, I hit a snag here. I am not following this whole 4 winners with an extra 16 bucks and the point is 6.

    Four Pass Line winners from four Points is 100 bucks for the 25 dollar bettor.
    Four Pass Line winners with four Points of 6 is 104 bucks for the 20 dollar bettor with 5 in odds.

    Roll a natural Pass Line winner and the totals are 125 vs 124. That is assuming the smallest advantage for the 5 in odds. If any of those points would have been the 4/10 or 5/9 than the 'odds player' would have had more than 125.

    One pass line loser for every 2 pass line winners. So the larger pass line bettor isn't walking away with it. Really, I can't find any reason to get into too much depth here.....

    You asked.." in the short term would I put $2 on the 6/8 to win $3?"

    YES! ALL DAY EVERY DAY, I'D BORROW MONEY AGAINST MY LIFE TO DO IT.
    you know better than that...

    I've heard a similar argument, but you are really going to have to clean it up a bit before I can accurately respond. I know it isn't your first language, I tried on my end, I couldn't sort it out.

    Baccaritic
     
  4. Craps

    Craps Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
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    Location:
    Las Vegas
    We are not doing a Math exam in school to pick the correct answer. Did I not post some examples of weaker odds coming up tops in real play?
    Betting B only in Baccarat is advantageous but you lose your shirt more often. Miniscule calculations is used to sway you from thinking playing the strong side is a winner long term. That's one of the things that is not so in real play. You just have to play the game as though both sides are perfectly even.
     

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