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Craps The most debated topic in craps ...Dice Control

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by SCAN, Jan 31, 2015.

  1. Fritz

    Fritz New Member Lineage to Founders

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    I'm a week into throwing, not that it's much.
    but...
    I'm starting to think that the theory of throwing dice sounds possible.
    but…
    In practice, it's like understanding women.
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

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    It is easier to understand dice control than women.
     
    double deuce, $nakeEye$ and Fritz like this.
  3. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

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    Fritz,
    I have a friend in Atlanta, he is a great dice influence player. One year, prior to his DI experience he lost upwards of 50k, not much to a rich person - but he ain't no rich person. This was a hit and it stung. So he took action. He took lessons from a well know DI teacher (not Frank) and flew to seminar upon seminar. He studied, a lot. He practiced, a lot.

    He became a bit of a maniac, he practiced 3-4 hours a day every day. He flew to more clinics and he tweaked his toss as it was dissected by some of the world's best DI's.

    He now tosses Dice in the am for an hour - then 3 more at night, before falling asleep tossing his dentures into a cup. He is a fantastically dedicated student of DI.

    I went to Vegas with him and to watch him toss dice was to watch Micheangelo paint. He would take his position in Stick left 1 - and take a few seconds to gently caress the cubes. He would hush up anyone around that interrupted before gently placing his index on the front and then the key - his thumb behind. Like a Cougar about to pounce he raised himself in a strike position, and leans just enough to get a straight angle on the landing zone.

    Prior to shooting he Breathes, exhales and focuses again, something he learned from an old army sharpshooter, before grabbing the dice again and resetting. He stares like he is in a contest with a mirror...the deepest focus you can imagine.

    The dice arc, at exactly 45 degree's before bouncing once - hitting the back wall - and tumbling to a stop. I'll never forget what I know will be forever etched in my mind - SEVEN OUT.

    Point is - before you spend countless time working on throwing dice - worry about your bankroll, session roll and how to gamble effectively at the table - that should be 90% of your study. Understand every payout - Vig/Juice and change you get.

    Bet a Bank roll you can afford - say 10% of your salary is your guideline - I assume you make 100k that means 10k is your BR, and take 5% to the table - that means $500.00 - adjust as needed based on what you make. Now break that $500.00 up into 10 segments or $50.00 per roll...how are you going to bet that effectively. 10$ pass line, with 3-4-5 odds and maybe a 6 or 8 placed?

    Not sure - focus on that....that is the game....Dice Influence - I believe but I believe IF you can do it - that its a minimal impact - in 35 years I've yet to see otherwise.
     
    Fritz likes this.
  4. Fritz

    Fritz New Member Lineage to Founders

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    GD:

    Thanks for that 7out story. I whole heartedly know where you are coming from with it. I Thank-You for that..

    I've been throwing a week, every day till my hand hurts. I have not even got them to stick together in the air yet, never mind hit #'s I want after hitting a flat wall. I'm not giving up though. To me, it's the only time I'm actually physically throwing & I hope to improve. Makes the game more exciting. But, it helps me understand your story even more.

    After the 45min, of throwing, (yes, 45min, lol) I've been rolling online over & over many hours a day trying to get my own betting structure/theory. I guess they would be my own hybrids of known theories. For the last 2 days I've been experimenting with 3point Molly with a mixture of come & don't come as #'s come up & at what time in a persons roll. I haven't even started pressing anything yet. Obviously there r better #'s to press & at what time.

    I'm still looking into whatever theories exist out there. I'd appreciate if you could help me & give me names of any ones you think might be useful (some R obscure) & can help me. That way I'll have more ammo. to use to develop. I never go into any game without knowing everything I can about it first. I like my money and only want it to make babies. ;)

    I'm anxiously looking forward to Franks books. They'll be a wealth of info. to me. I'm sure there are many more books to read, but I'll start there.

    For the time being, I KNOW…… I'll be at the tables soon enough and won't even want to throw except for fun & to see what luck I have throwing, I doubt I'll even set em. At the moment, my game (not that there is 1 yet) is all in the bets.

    Any help/info will be greatly appreciated…


    Thanks again for the great story. I read it twice.
    Fritz
     
  5. BigBen

    BigBen New Member Founding Member

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    Yup, Bankroll is KEY, along with a few other important factors.
    Win Goals (But IMHO, MORE importantly is setting your LOSS LIMITS!).

    Build a practice rig, and keep-on tossin'!
     
    Fritz likes this.
  6. $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Active Member Founding Member

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    Fritz,

    I do not know what grip you are using - BUT - 95% of issues regarding DI/DC stem from grip issues -

    The other from dice sets used by the shooter -

    As a suggestion - try the 2FF grip AKA the " Lock Grip " -

    This was the preferred grip Jerry Patterson instructed his PARR students to use prior to their expertise using the 3FF grip -

    Check out The Dice Coach's web-site - he has pix and descriptions of all popular dice grips !

    $...eE..$
     
    Fritz likes this.
  7. Fritz

    Fritz New Member Lineage to Founders

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    I didn't think of trying other grips. I'm using the 3fingered grip. It has never felt comfortable & my hand hurts quite quickly. I've been holding my fingers flat against the table as I roll online, trying to get some sort of muscle memory in my fingers. Thought that would help. But now that I think of it, that may the a problem cause I have awkward short stumpy fingers.

    I will check out the lock grip among others on the web-site in the morning.

    Thanks for the info., very cool.
     
  8. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    If anyone could actually keep the dice on axis 50% of the time, he/she could clean up big time! I don't mean that the dice would end up on the same axis after bouncing around; I mean they STAY on axis, eliminating the other 20 outcomes. Or, maybe you mean they would STAY on axis enough to raise the probability of an on-axis result from 44.4% to 50%.

    I did a bunch of experiments using WinCraps a few years ago, putting together .prb files for 10% and 20% on-axis success. I used one set for the comeouts, another if the point was 4 or 10 and a third for the other points, betting pass and various odds multiples. At 10% on-axis efficiency the pass line had a very tiny advantage, 0.087%, with 10x odds 0.87%. Even with a positive expectation, the volatility could easily kill you. With 20% efficiency, the player advantage was 2.29%.

    I remain extremely skeptical about axis throwing.

    I read Michael Shackleford's material on his Wizard of Odds site. He was involved in a couple of tests and a bet and, while still skeptical, read Stanford Wong's book. He gleaned from the book that, in Wong's opinion, even skilled shooters did not land the dice on axis more than you would expect (44.4%), but that some are able to, when the dice DO land on axis, correlate the rotations of the two dice, reducing the incidence of "double pitch", which means that one die rotates 180 degrees relative to the other. If you look at the "hardways set", if the dice end up on axis and do not rotate relative to each other, the outcomes are the four hardways, whereas if one die rotates 180 degrees relative to the other, the results are all 7 (5-2, 2-5, 4-3, 3-4). The other two possible correlations result in point numbers. So, to the extent that a shooter can reduce the number of "double pitch" throws and increase the number of zero-pitch throws, more point numbers and fewer sevens result. Shackleford cranks out a lot of numbers, for pass, DP and place bets, depending on the percentage of double pitches "converted" to zero pitches, all the way from 1% to 25%. I think there's a term "PD", which stands for "primary hits" (zero-pitch) and double pitch.

    I was curious as to how he figured out those numbers, so I worked on figuring out the probabilities for a 10% efficiency for the hardways set, which would increase the number of hardways by 10% and reduce the number of 7's by 10% for that axis. So, the probabilities of the hardways went up to .0.03055, while the probability of each of the sevens combinations on this axis went down to .02499. Everything else stayed the same. This increased the probabilities, overall, of the 4, 6, 8, and 10 and reduced the probability of the 7.

    I did the same thing for one of the "sevens sets", which increased the probabilities of the 6-1, 1-6, 2-5, 5-2 and decreased the probabilities of the 6-6, 2-2, 1-1 and 5-5. Then I wrote a WinCraps Pro autobet file that loaded the "sevens10.prb" file for comeouts and the "hardways10.prb" file after a point was established. I set "allow negative bankrolls" and just let it run for a while, not doing sessions. After about a million rolls, the fours and tens just a bit above random expectation, the sixes and eights about .23% above and the sevens were at 16.15%. The pass line showed a player advantage of 3.15% and the odds 5.18%, for an overall player advantage of 4.64%, pretty close to the number in the Wizard's table for 10%, using a sevens set and the hardways set.

    I may run this again, dividing it up into sessions, and see what the chances of winning sessions of a couple hours are. Also, I would be glad to share these probability files; they are binary files, unlike the .bet files that, with Pro, are now just text files.

    I am still very doubtful about even this type of "control" or "influence", but it's fun to play around with "what ifs".

    BTW, you can read Shackleford's stuff at http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/4/
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
  9. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Frank S.... seriously - you don't know who your competition is or was ?! .... really thought you were a better businessman than that :p

    I will have to concur with Heavy when he states on the CrapsForum.com board Jan. 5, 2014:


    Anyone using the phrase "control" as it relates to dice is doing so for Marketing reasons IMO ... Like maybe writing a book titled "I am a Dice Controller" ;)
     
    Mark V likes this.
  10. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

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    Thanks Alan,

    I will go back and review the "dice" terminology to make sure I am stating the assumed results correctly.

    The one thing about all those "tests" on line - is the actual sample size is so small - that I find it hard to see how those can be actually considered fair tests of skill.
     
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  11. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    I ran that same autobet file, but using a $450 bankroll, $250 win goal and 60-bet "time" limit for 20,000 sessions. Bets were just $5 pass, 3, 4, 5x odds. The results:
    12,063 winning sessions
    191 breakeven sessions
    7746 losing sessions
    187 busts (not enough left for a round, i.e. -425 to -450)
    4963 sessions reached the $250 win goal
    mean net outcome: +$47.08
    median net outcome: +$55
    mode: +$260 to +$265 (overshooting the win goal due to odds bets)
    standard deviation: $176.70
    the pass bets had a 3.2% player advantage
    the odds bet had a 5.1% player advantage
    overall player advantage 4.61%

    Again, the probability files represent a sevens set on comeouts and the hardways set on points, converting 10% of double-pitch to "primary hits" when the dice land on axis (44.4% of the time).
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
  12. $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Active Member Founding Member

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    Would this be someone that I might know ?

    Would this be someone you, I and others met in 1/2014 ?

    g..g... ?

    A PM would be more than sufficient !

    $...eE..$
     
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  13. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    IMHO, Dice Influence is way over hyped and to much 'religion' is put in to it. I think this article speaks to the religion/cult aspect that some dice groups get in to. My take is that once the dice hit the diamond backwall it destroys any 'on-axis' toss and introduces a lot of randomness (5-diamond backwall scatters the dice more than a 7-diamond backwall), and that the conditions may not be suitable for any sort of Dice Influencing methods. Some casinos use large dice, other use heavy dice, and some dice are so wonky that they roll funny (these funny dice are what I call "Indian dice' because you see such dice there).

    So, do I believe that the dice can be influenced? Yes, they can. It takes a very skilled shooter to accomplish this, and most shooters who set dice and toss them are not skilled enough to have any influence what-so-ever. The level of skill needed to have any influence with the dice, is right up there at the level of pro athletes who can chip a golf ball right in to the hole from the rough, or return the tennis ball just so it is out of reach of the other player, or nail that three pointer from half court. If you ever pitched pennies, then this would be to have the skill to pitch pennies in to a Dixie cup from 10 feet away and have it land in the cup without bouncing out or tipping it over.

    Very few people has what it takes to rise from mediocrity gambling to the level of Advantage play. Sure , lots of people attempt card counting, Dice Influence, and memorization of video poker strategies only to find that 'it is work' and not at all easy or coming as they thought it would be. Attending seminars on Advantage Play perhaps will give you the insight as to the skills, but to learn the skills and put them to work for you is another thing. Would anyone think that just attending a seminar on playing basketball makes one a Pro level basketball player? No, because you know that it wold take a lot of hard work, learning and unlearning, trial and error, and lots of time put in to just rise beyond the average. And, I can tell you that it is an exceptional person that will rise beyond the average, and that is a very rare person too.

    The only person who will make you an Advantage Player is you! Not some guy who is selling you a seminar, or some book, DVD or YouTube video.
     
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  14. double deuce

    double deuce New Member

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    Scan like you I have been around this topic for many years I too have been on the tables with people who were what I would call
    masters of the craft , I was also very fortunate to have been mentored by a couple of them I agree with you in what you say
    you don't know me so that is probably unimportant


    many years ago one passed away the other just 6 short years ago

    the one thing they impressed upon me in the strongest terms possible , to do this they would say , it is vital that you learn
    and practice , first you learn , then you practice, because you cannot practice anything you don't know how to do

    in a conversation one day after a practice session one said to me , "learning is very important , knowledge is power"
    Sydney chimed in "knowledge is all important but it is not where power abides , being able to use the knowledge , that's
    where the power is LEARN AND PRACTICE"
    WHAT YOU SAID IS GOOD ADVICE FOR US ALL
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
  15. double deuce

    double deuce New Member

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    Great post SnakEeyes and that is what it takes to do anything REALLY WELL a person could learn a thing or two from a person like that
    he knows what he wants to do and he will do what it takes to make it happen down in Texas we call that DEDICATION a key to success
    I think I am going to like this forum
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
  16. double deuce

    double deuce New Member

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    Some people on these forums attack anyone who talks about possessing any skill set as it applies to craps.
    They think because the game is a "negative expectation game" you should not be able to win.
    That is baffling to me.
     
  17. MrV

    MrV Well-Known Member

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    I am still waiting for a DI advocate to post actual, objective, replicable / scientific PROOF that DI is viable.

    *crickets*
     
  18. double deuce

    double deuce New Member

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    What type of proof are you looking for? , what type of proof would satisfy your skepticism?
    just curious
     
  19. MrV

    MrV Well-Known Member

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    There was a poster at WoV, Ahigh, who had an in home craps table and wanted to explore DI.

    I would think that an in home table would be needed in order to allow the necessary number of rolls / trials to occur in order to be deemed statistically significant; I'm no expert, but probably over ten thousand rolls.

    Have one guy who says he's a DI, and a couple random rollers play craps, each for the necessary (large) number of trials, then take a look at their results.

    To make it easy to digest, perhaps they could all be aiming for / trying to hit only one number, say six or eight.
     
  20. double deuce

    double deuce New Member

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    I have a 12 ft. table in my living room , one of 5 , I have bought out of casinos over the years
    I and a group of friends have run those trials here and have been quite successful with discerning the differences
    on our tables as well as in Vegas
    I discovered these forums about 4 months ago , got on this one a short time ago and am amused by
    the opinions on the subject of what you folks call DI
    the conversations are quite polarized and get quite heated
    it's really quite amusing , facts and opinion seem to clash and stalemate , neither side budging
     

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