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Baccarat Time

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by ehtelgaeb, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb New Member

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    When you sit down to a baccarat table, how much time do you expect to spend there? I would imagine that if you win right off the bat you're not going to be there for hours but what about if in your first game, you hit 9 winners in 31 hands, and 22 losers. (a "paper" game I actually just played). Using the Lankey 6 point divisor I ended up 48 units down and then replayed it with a safety brake and still ended up 34 units down.

    So let's say after the first game (shoe) you're down 34 units. Do you stay long enough to recover, take your losses and leave, come back later?

    The game went like this:

    W
    L
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    W
    L
    W
    L
    L
    L
    L
    L
    W
    W
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    W
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    W
    L
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    L
    L
    W
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    L
    L
     
  2. Mako

    Mako Active Member

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    If through experience and/or testing I know how low things can go in advance for my play style then a -48u drop is just expected to appear eventually and has to be dealt with.

    If I know that say it would take me 11 hours of play to make up that -48u, it doesn't matter if I do it in a day, or a week. Whatever's comfortable.

    "Hit and Run" is fallacy for the most part (it has positives to me, but helping to win isn't one of them), either I play +EV and win, or -EV and lose, and time spent at the table isn't going to influence either outcome.
     
    soxfan likes this.
  3. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb New Member

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    Thanks Mako. I appreciate the info.
     
  4. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    I think you should have exited that shoe way, WAY before being at -34 units. That’s insane!

    That’s where Stop/Win and Stop/Loss should be implemented

    I wouldn’t be caught dead keep playing same shoe ( or session) if I hit -10. After that, I will decide on a spot if I want to re-buy for another crack at it. If I do, I’d take a half hour break, go for a coffee or smoke or drop 10 bucks on slots or whatever. But lots of time I’ll just call it a day. Casinos are not going anywhere. Wins will come another day. They may not, but who’s to say that the tide will turn your way on a same day when you’re trying to recover a whopping 34 units

    BTW hope you don’t use Marty to get yourself in a hole that deep
     
  5. ehtelgaeb

    ehtelgaeb New Member

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    Thanks mate. The above is just paper play and for discussion. I am obviously not yet ready for the real world.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  6. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    If ya got a true winning style of play then ya should play as much as possible. If ya got a true winning style of play then it is detrimental to "limit yer exposure" cuz the more shoe ya grind the more profits yer gonna put in yer pockets. And if ya ain't got a wining style then what difference does it make, hey hey?
     
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  7. Mako

    Mako Active Member

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    100% agree.

    Hit and run simply delays the inevitable, WIN or LOSE. If you have and advantage, the only time limit should be for fatigue.
     
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  8. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    Its absolutely irrelevant if you got a winning style or not. The losing streak is inevitable. I'd rather pocket 3-4 units consistently than to wait for a losing streak to show its ugly head. The #1 reason most gamblers don't succeed is because they don't know when to bounce. GREED KILLS!!! Be grateful for small steady returns instead of chasing a pie dream. You want to win more, increase the size of your unit and NOT chasing 20-30 units most gamblers aim for.
     
  9. Mako

    Mako Active Member

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    It doesn't work that way.

    If you play for ten minutes a day, for 365 days, you played for 3650 total minutes. It makes no difference whatsoever if you split that 3650 minute block into 365 sessions, 100 sessions, 10 sessions, or whatever. You're playing for 3650 minutes.

    The odds don't change. Your chance of winning or losing doesn't change. Nothing changes.

    You were exposed to whatever the game's odds of winning or losing were for 3650 total minutes.

    If you don't have a "winning style" (+EV), you will lose regardless of whatever hit and run profit stop you've set for yourself.

    As an example, recently a system-seller was peddling a typical martingale play for Roulette. Saying you scan the floor for wheels that have a 6-streak of either red or black. You take a bankroll that can handle 6x losses, a 6-step martingale, with at least a $25 base unit.

    You walk up to whatever wheel has the 6-streak, and bet for the opposite color to occur. You win if that happens by the 12th attempt, meaning if on the 12th spin it goes red after having 11 blacks, you're a winner. You then "leave for the day", because boy oh boy hit and run works to beat the casino folks.

    Except when 100x of his buyers went into their local casinos and applied the method and reported back to the private facebook group of purchasers he had set up, 97 of them "won" that day, while 3 of them (on the very first bet attempt) lost their entire 6x bankroll.

    Which is almost EXACTLY what the math says will happen in terms of probability. Hitting and Running had no effect on the net gain.

    If you don't have a +EV method of play, you shouldn't be in any casino expecting to win.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
    soxfan and Sputnik like this.
  10. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    LMAO! Selling a Marty system! Problem with the most gamblers is that they are too lazy and/or too stupid to invest some time and effort to learn the game to the studs and yes, its possible to win consistently a small amount of units without a negative progression (that's up to each individual and his comfort zone what the size of a unit is). And all that math is just a self assurance of a kind as an excuse to keep on losing.
     
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  11. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Hit and run, stop win/loss point is just loser/recreational mindset that most seem to have. I been testing style with a short leash grand marty and show a profit of 1.8-1.9 unit buckin up against over 15, 000 tested shoe with -537 units downdraw being the worst case scenario. So aint make no sense to head out the door after capture a coupla units when if you just sit yer backside in yer chair yer gonna put 1.8-1.9 units profits in yer pocket for every shoe ya grind out, hey hey.
     
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  12. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    LMAO! 1.8-1.9 units per shoe! Isn't it a same like a couple of units that can be achieved just by flat betting or a PP without risking having your bankroll taking a significant hit from Marty?
     
  13. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I don't know what pp is supposed to be but I would love to see a style that can shoe a 1.8-1.9 units per shoe profit over 15,000 shoe. The proficient 21 cards counter only make a unit or so profits per shoe and they sometimes run in the red for weeks or months, hey hey.
     
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  14. gr8player

    gr8player Member

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    Spot-on, Xytras, and thank you for your keen insight. Buy in, pick your spots when the timing appears right (read: when the shoe's current results are in synch with your preferred plays), pocket your few units of profit and head for the cashier's cage. Rinse and repeat at a later time if you choose to do so.

    BUUUTTT, staying and playing in that same session where you've already been profitable....that's playing with fire, my friends. And I'll tell you exactly why:

    While mathematically speaking it is true that the odds do not change, neither for nor against you, whether you decide to plug on in this session or cash out and come back later; let's look at those mathematics, shall we?

    Look at the Casino. They can never "cash out". Rather, the Casino is simply playing one long, continuous game. And why wouldn't they...heck, they've got their "house edge" built into every bet that we, the players, make. So the longer everyone plays, the more the Casino makes, because they've got that guaranteed "long-term" 1.2% going for them in their favor.

    Now, some players (and you see them even right here in this thread) seem to think: "Well, if the Casino can do it, why can't I"; figuring that if they've got a perceived edge that they can stay and play elongated sessions to their heart's delight. This, IMHO, is very wrong, and worse, detrimental to the player's overall success.

    You see, the Casino can (and, frankly, MUST) play one long continuous game because they act as a MACHINE. A machine simply spewing the results at their various games on a minute-by-minute and hand-by-hand basis. They are not forced (nor even entitled) to THINK. They've already done their "thinking" by building in their "house edge" to every single bet the player's make; so they've got the better of us AUTOMATICALLY.

    However we, as players, HAVE TO THINK. We are living, breathing humans with brains that can (and will be) affected PSYCHOLOGICALLY by our decisions. This is the difference between the Casino's long-term play and ours.

    So let's go back our original dilemma...to pick up a few units of profits and lock them up OR to plug on in order to increase our winnings:

    I ask you this question: How do you feel after being ahead by 4, 5, or a half-dozen units only to stay at the table and then lose back some or (even worse) all of those units or (even worser...lol) go into the red within that same session?

    I'll tell you how I'd feel: I'd not only feel the current loss to my bankroll BUUUTT psychologically feel as if I want those 5 units back that I was up only a short time ago. In other words, psychologically I'm not just "even" or "down a unit or two" BUUUTT rather I'm out those 5 units also. Those SAME 5 units that I "coulda, woulda, shoulda" walked out with when I had the chance to do so!

    Then, had I have cashed those units, even when I do buy in to play again later, I begin a BRAND-NEW session. Do you see that? You're not carrying the "weight" of a current win on your shoulders that you would be doing within the same session; rather, you're beginning anew. Much, much better for the psychological side of your casino play.

    Look, it's hard enough to beat this game. So I sure as heck am not going to leave myself open to my OWN second-guessing...should I have quit with my profits?...that's just another side-game that, my friends, you ain't never gonna win.

    Quitting while ahead avoids that unnecessary aggravation. The Casino isn't going anywhere and you can buy in again later. You are not a machine. You feel losses. But you should NEVER feel them within a "once-profitable" session. Do not leave yourself open for failure...locking up profits as they appear leads oneself to a winner's mentality.

    As always, I wish it for all of you. And stay well.
     
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  15. MDawg

    MDawg Active Member

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    Those who disclaim "quitting while ahead" are speaking in theory.

    I've quit sessions while ahead for years, many years, and it has added up to one thing - winning!
     
  16. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    The only time a cat should take profit at some arbitrary point is if he ain't never gonna play the style again, otherwise at some point he will again put his cake at risk when he play again. But then most cats ain't got a winning style so it don't matter anyway, hey hey.
     
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  17. Mako

    Mako Active Member

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    The time you choose to quit playing within a session is only relevant towards your time commitment for that particular play attempt. It has no relevance towards net winning or losing over time, as the odds don't change.

    But yes, human failings do come into play, I can see that argument as being sound. If you're not betting mechanically then I can easily believe that ego or pride or fear or even anger could seep into a session over time and cause a loss that otherwise might not have happened had the player quit at a previous high point.

    In that way the argument for walking away while "up" has some teeth, but for a mechanical player who is mentally disciplined, hitting-and-running only serves to keep a session at a preferable time length rather than encounter a late session loss and have to play for an extended period that session to make it up.
     
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  18. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Nobody ever lost anything by taking a profit.


    ND
     
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  19. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    Its nice to see the arguments form both sides of the fence here. I can only input what works FOR ME and what doesn't. Like most, when my Baccarat journey has started five or so years ago I've employed a Marty and a dozen of other NPs...because it seemed like a natural thing to do...to chase your losses, because I didn't know any better. But pretty quickly I realized that all Negative Progressions is nothing more than a tool...TO COMPENSATE FOR A POOR BET SELECTION! And that's why all mechanical approaches DON'T WORK! Because a player is too preoccupied with his negative money management and completely disregards what a shoe is actually doing.

    Once I've learned to READ a shoe and adjusted my MM, the profit started to show consistently. Do I lose bets? Of course I do, heck I lose sessions as well... but my buy-in is only 8 units (I employ 150$-200$ positive loop currently). And guess what, it only takes me two sessions to recover it. I have not lost B2B sessions in over a year and on average I lose a single session only once every three weeks ( I gamble 4 days a week). And how long does it take to recover a busted Marty progression?

    That's why all that math that's been thrown around goes out of a window. People should start realizing that all math IS and meant to be in a scope of a LONG RUN which is infinity. When I approach a table I don't really care what happened at this same table 1 shoe prior or 5 or 34, nor do I care what will happen after I bounce with my 3-5 units of profits. I only care what happens right here right now because my win goal is REALISTIC!
     
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  20. MDawg

    MDawg Active Member

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    Although they sound the same, in my book "hit and run" and "quitting while ahead" are two different things.

    Hit and run is like when I play just one or two hands, win a thousand, think back to how I played for hours the day before and ended up just a thousand, and leave. Hit and run for me is a very quick session.

    Quitting while ahead might take hours, and it might come after being down and then climbing back up to even or ahead. Or it might come after repeated shoes when I keep winning, but finally decide that I have reached some goal, or won enough given my starting bankroll.

    I would add that when I play, I play with almost no time constraints. When I go to Vegas, we stay practically indefinitely, and rarely less than two weeks. I had one trip last year when we arrived beginning of September and left early October - I just kept winning, and would move to a different resort when it seemed that my comps had run out, or we got bored with that resort. We ended up on the last leg of the trip at the same first casino resort we had arrived at at the beginning of the trip. Hello deja vu!

    Also, each session, I play with nothing booked to interfere with the play, not even dinner, and no social events. I start playing after I am well rested, have eaten and been to the gym, with at least a potential eight hours ahead of me of uninterrupted play. Do I always play all of those hours? No, most often nowhere close, but I always leave open the option so that I leave the table when I want to leave, not due to some other appointment. On a day when we have a social event planned I will make sure I have many hours before that event free to play, or else I do not play at all that day.

    I am blessed with being self employed and able to carry on most of my business while traveling.


    I will add that I have a friend who plays Baccarat very big, average five thousand a hand, who says that "hit and run" doesn't work for her - for reasons different from what you enumerated above Mako. She says that when she hits and run, she wins small. It works for days on end, until one day, she loses a ton, which eats up all the recent days of small hit and run earnings, and brings her back to ground zero, or worse. In my case though, my wins are kept consistent. I am not trying for a home run or strikeout every time, so the quitting while ahead in my case adds up steadily, and I don't experience a sudden huge wipeout such as she describes.

    I also agree with what Xytra said above - which is basically that while when stretched out into infinity, quitting while ahead might theoretically have no value, we Don't play an infinite number of hours. We Don't have to play forever. For example, as mentioned in my story, I quit gambling entirely for about a decade, over a decade ago because I got too busy with life in general. I quit while ahead then, and can do it again now, since I returned to gambling about two years ago.

    In any case, for me, quitting while ahead works well, and given that I have been doing it for years upon years successfully, I can't see any reason to let it go. If you think about it, there are three ways a session might go - lose and never ahead, ahead at some point, and ahead all the time. Most sessions will fall into the middle category. Given that in most (the majority) of sessions you will wind up ahead at some point, why is it so hard to accept that if you quit while ahead, you will consequently win the majority of your sessions.

    Just talk to any Vegas dealer or pit boss - they will tell you universally that the main reason people don't win, is that they keep playing after a streak.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
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