Baccarat True Believers vs. Con-Artists

My grand Mother could do that and transpose into any key.

On my ability to spot patterns, at least I know my limitations. It's just not something I can do. Probably why I got into math instead.

 

Oh also keep an eye out for non-suited pay cards. There's a simple rule.

If the card falls between you hold the two pay cards. If the card falls outside you hold the suited RF cards with the ten, unless there is a flush penalty.

So KTs with Qc Hold KQoff

KTs with a Ac Hold KTs Unless you have another card of the same suite as the KT in which case hold AKoff

This applies to QTs and JTs as well.

 

Oh and thanks for asking a question in my bailiwick...!

 

Playing the 212334455?

 

Mr.Kneeland,

If the A 10 shows I keep them together. I am doing rather well going after the 4 of a kind and

the Flush and Full House . They too bring me to my win goal .

 

Judge

Several months ago I answered this question to you als. Whenever you suffer a loss in that positive progression you start from the beginning 3 2 3 etc.


Lungyeh himself liked my reply. He said "cool".


Having reached my win goal whilr in that progression I am leaving with the first loss.


My strategy winning 2 out of 3 sessions .


PS I* am pl sessions not shoes.

 

holding ATs has its rewards the flush being one of them. When you draw 3 cards there are 16215 possible outcomes.

Drawing four cards there are 178365 possible outcomes.

assuming that each outcome is equally likely it is slightly more favorable to drop the 10.

you have to look at every possible outcome multiplied by the pay that you’ll get if you get that outcome and then divide by the total number.

 

AT VP when 5 cards showed then there were 5 cards right in back of them to replace the ones that wer discarded,


Then the new technology eliminated those behind the scenes cards and replaced them with whatever came next floating around ,

Just as acceptable as I saw it.

ND

 

OK I got to comment on this. I have 3 grids I use. One I primarily use. I can't do all 3 at once. Every shoe will give up units like crazy with one of the grids. Problem which one.

The primary I can walk out with a win. Sometimes like yesterday played 8 hands won 7. I'm out. Today had to work for it and left with 5. Back and forth finally hit 5 at the end.

I have my wife tracking one of the grids. I looked at her paper after. One column had single misses with hits being multiples. In around 40 hands there was only one time a miss hit twice together. I asked her why we didn't play this. She told me when it missed two in a row I quit looking at it.

I have tried several times to show her what we want to play.... Several single hits .... play it to miss.... She will tell me why? You don't know when it will hit.....

I don't get frustrated any longer because we all see things differently. I'm to the point I don't think seeing what's happening is something everyone can do......And I have given up trying to explain it.

Same as everyday life. You ever see an accident? Then listen to what people say they witnessed. Yeah Yeah I saw it! What did you see? I heard this bang....... OK they didn't see it....... And the funny part is they would swear to it in court.....

As for music the ones that can play by ear have a gift. The ones that can play mechanicaly also are gifted in their own right but there isn't a flowing musical sound. Then there are some of us that struggle for everything they learn musically.
I gave up on being a guitarist when a guy I knew picked it up and played as good as any pro I ever seen in only a month. He had and ear and was gifted. Listen to it once and go. Best advice I got was learn a lot of different songs. When asked to play x think about what the closest song you know is and fake it..... It works when people are drinking they don't know the difference....

 

I discovered playing Roulette by accident. It was my wife's birthday in 2004 and we went to the casino and I was waiting for her to get done losing all her money in the slot machines. I was sitting at a non-working slot watching the Marquis of a roulette table. Never played the game before, I knew nothing about it. By watching the patterns emerge on the tote board as I was reading it, I was predicting the next outcome more often than not. I thought to myself naively, this must be how the professionals beat roulette. And that's when I started looking into it. I found out later, over a year later, but not only didn't they do it they didn't think anybody could do it and it was a vast waste of time. It's only been lately that I'm realizing they don't see the patterns like I do so of course of them it would be a waste of time.

There's even a name for the ability to see patterns. "Seeing patterns in otherwise random or unrelated objects or patterns is called pareidolia.. The ability to experience pareidolia is more developed in some people and less in others."

 

@SPIKE too. This is nonsense. Human minds tend to see patterns and everything. So pretty much everyone does it automatically.

 

Except some are better at it than others and some can barely do it at all. I know this for a fact because I've come across people in the last 15 years that I tried to explain the patterns in roulette to and they don't see what I'm talking about. At first I thought they were kidding me and now I realize they actually can't see them. It just looks like nonsense to them.

 

Do you think there could be a "Clever Hans Effect" in play. If, let's say the croupier was unconsciously spinning the ball when a certain number passed by and caught their eye. You might be picking up on that pattern. Where the croupier spins the ball is a totally legitimate and scientifically provable way one could get non-random results.

 

There are dealers who spin the ball trying to hit the zeros and some of them are quite good at it. There's one right now at one of the casinos I play online that hits way more zeros than anybody else. He's very careful to release the ball as 0 goes by his hand and he tries to make the ball release the same speed every time and it usually ends up two or three or four pockets away from one of the zeros. If he's the dealer I don't usually play I wait for the next one.

 

I'd start betting on the zero. Just saying. But I think we just crossed the Rubicon. The die is cast, or in this case the ball is spun. There is the distinct possibility that the patterns you are sensing are not illusory. I hope you know how hard it is for a mathematician that's based their entire career on things being completely random to admit that!

You should consider the possibility that all dealers are doing this to some extant even if they don't know they are. It's almost impossible for humans to not form patterns.

The ball might be impartial and the wheel indifferent, but so long as a human has to spin the ball patterns are not out of the question or the equation.

 

Naw, most dealers don't care and are way too lazy anyway to ever learn how to do it. It's a skill that takes a long time to master and a lot of patience, you can spot the people who are doing it. Your average dealer does not even look at the wheel when he spins. He just picks up the ball and throws it. If a dealer scrutinizes the wheel obviously waiting for the right time to release it those are the guys you have to watch. But they're really few and far between.
You very seldom see it in online casinos because those dealers deal all the games, not just roulette or not just blackjack or
Baccarat. In a brick-and-mortar casino, the ones I go to, the roulette dealers are always the same people, that's all they do. They might be the ones to get bored and teach themselves how to section shoot. The dealer I'm talking about in the online casino I'm playing is in Detroit and Detroit just recently opened this online casino and they have lots of experienced dealers to choose from because there's been brick-and-mortar casinos in Detroit for decades and there are lots of out-of-work dealers floating around. The one that's shooting for the zeros is one of them I'm sure of it.

 

Interesting. Dealers with tells or flaws is a BIG thing in BJ and a proven way to get an edge. In the old days hold-card flashing was the biggest one. But there were others. One cool technique I heard about was big-bet reshuffle. Some dealers would always reshuffle if the player bet big. So the counters used reversed psychology and bet big when the deck went negative to get a fresh deck. Then resumed normal play at a high but fixed amount until they wanted a reshuffle.

 

To add a little to my last post. The return of BJ is calculated on the entire deck. Think peaks and valleys, ups and downs. If you can truncate and omit the valleys at the end of the shoe and stay in when there's a peak, it's actually quite a strong edge. Your scraping the cream off the top and ignoring the cake.

Also when you get them to reshuffle by making a BIG bet the next hand dealt will be a fresh deck or shoe which is only a tiny bit off 100% with favorable rules and compositional strategy. Technically you're breaking even on the BIG bet or only losing a tiny fraction.

 

VP does not require a big BR. JoB 25 cent machines $ 100 , $ 1 machines $ 400 .


Learning the stratefies no problrm .


Play at your own risk.

 

Full disclosure. I don't read most of your posts, Frank. I tend to just read the first paragraph line on some and skip around a bit. So forgive me when I say it doesn't seem like you ever played these games (Bacc and BJ that much). Real counters don't and new counters shouldn't rely on this nonsense you suggest.

Flashing hole card is cheating and the casinos are well aware and look out for it. I've seen dealers do it. Even then it is NOT a guarantee win! But in venues where you can get the 86 it's not a good idea and pros know it. And counting on the preferential shuffle is awfully dangerous. Imagine spreading to $1500.00 just to hope there's a shuffle???? LMAO. Most casinos don't do it. AC did it a lot only because they couldn't ask you to leave. Not only that, a LOT of dealers can keep a simple hi-lo OR, if not, can sense the decks turning "hot" by watching the flow.

Another reason is because there are better measures to deflect counters without pissing off the recreational players by shuffling up all the time! Good counters "back in the day" will use a big player where mid shoe entry was allowed. Nowadays (and then) it's a hit and run game with good actors. My BJ mentor used to say, "I love to lose, the more I lost the more they would let me bet!" He quit the game way before I did. He said it just got harder and harder to make a living. It took my casino quite a while before they cut me off. But it was pretty quick after I graduated to playing black.

But all in all BJ is a lousy game. Full tables reduce the advantage hands available, poor penetration and a pit critter standing over the table where "chips" play is pretty much enough without the stuff you are spouting.

Maybe stick to VP and stop pontificating about stuff you obviously don't know about?

J