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Baccarat True Believers vs. Con-Artists

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Frank Kneeland, Jan 12, 2022.

  1. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    Counting works. If you find yourself on the other side of the fence questioning it or thinking that it doesn’t work, you simply haven’t educated yourself enough and might not have a grasp on the math. If you do in fact find yourself on that side of the fence that doesn’t think it gives the player an advantage; then it looks foolish to boast that it doesn’t work. Question all things, but try not to be confidentially incorrect.

    Counting is also very easy to learn. I can teach nearly anyone how to count in under 5 minutes.

    Lets say you do learn a basic hi/lo count. You whip out a deck of cards and start practicing. As you flip through all 52 cards you will start with zero and end with zero.

    Hell, I’ll just teach you real quick.

    2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are all +1

    when we get rid of those cards, it leaves more high value cards which are good for us.

    7, 8, and 9 are neutral, so 0 for those

    10, J, K, Q, A are all -1

    and that’s it. You now know how to count cards.

    If you want to get good, then you need to practice and try counting down a deck of cards in about 15 seconds.

    Unfortunately, it’s a lot trickier at a casino, not only do you have a ton of distractions, but you also have to incorporate division into your count due to multiple decks… typically 6 or 8 decks.

    but even with practice, you can still become very proficient in counting with a few weeks of serious practice.

    Unless you have a continuous shuffler, you can count and have an advantage at real table blackjack.

    So why isn’t everyone doing it?

    it’s a really boring grind in my opinion.

    Why are casino floors filled with blackjack tables if we can beat the game… well, I’ll also say this. Casinos aren’t banning as many people from the game as you think. A friend of mine was asked to stop playing after he made X amount of dollars. I doubt it. If your friend made $3k or 40k, they aren’t getting banned from the game, they are more likely to get the private host treatment. The casino will get their money back from your “friend,” because most likely he isn’t counting shit.

    The cold hard truth about counting BJ that no one seems to mention when discussing the topic is the bankroll needed and the return from that bankroll.

    So here it is… if you are a $5 bettor, you need 1,000 times your minimum bet to be a successful counter. And here’s another kicker, have 1,000 times your minimum bet doesn’t guarantee you won’t lose that bankroll. Variance in counting can be huge, and it can also last weeks or sometimes months. There are mixed feels on the lifetime bankroll required for a $5 bettor, and many pros will say it’s $25,000.

    here’s the next bit of ugly truth to counting.

    Expect to average out your minimum bet per hour. That means a $5 bettor counting cards in blackjack should expect to make an average of $5 per hour.

    Ya’ll don’t want to make $5 an hour, surely. But maybe you don’t want to work a job and decide to be a professional BJ player. $25 an hour sounds good to you, plus it works better in your case since most table minimums now are $25. You choose to ignore some of the pros advice on lifetime bankroll but do come prepared with a $25,000 session bankroll to grind out $25 an hour.

    So you spend weeks or months practicing, you have a good bankroll, now you’re ready to try and blend in and play discreetly everyday for the rest of your life. Most supervisors are trained to count cards and identify card counters, along with nearly all security that are behind the eye in the sky at the BJ tables. Let’s say they identify you, they notice you’re making $200 a day after grinding away for 8 hours. Do they approach you and ask you to play another game? Nah, not if they are smart. Which most casinos are, it’s their business to make money. They would most likely wait for you to be in a very negative variance swing before asking you to switch games.

    On topic of this thread. True believers in baccarat. I am one. 100% math based too. Baccarat can be beaten. In nearly the same way that blackjack can… by counting. It’s a fact, and guess what? Barely anyone is doing it or even talking about it. I’ve mentioned it on this forum for years and it has never sparked an ounce of interest from anyone. Maybe because it doesn’t have the rush of gambling. Maybe because it requires patience and a lot of capital. But the baccarat side bets are countable and are truly a mathematical advantage play to us.

    The benefits to counting the bonus bets in baccarat are that you don’t have to do any math in your head. You are free to use pen and paper, some casinos you can have your smartphone out. You can talk to someone over the phone, etc. The pacing of the cards is much slower and easier to avoid mistakes.
     
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  2. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Sozz Jae , second last paragraph is incorrect. I can post my previously posted post to that statement here if you like.

    I understood at the time of posting it last year ( my post in response to counting the side bets) you didn’t want to expand on the subject on a public forum. Or you possibly took my reply as sarcastic at the time. As since you didn’t elaborate on the subject further that thread , I took it as a let the subject slide bill response from you.

    Perhaps you missed the post as the thread was heated ( from memoryish) and your focus was elsewhere , directed at another member or two.

    If you wish to start a new thread, I would be interested in the content. The more information one has in this industry the more one is able to increase the % returns.

    If you don’t care to re post new thread etc etc, no biggie. Cheers
     
  3. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    The answer is simple imho Frank.

    Most people think they have the holy grail when they start to play baccarat, you see it on the factory floor at the casinoverse, you see it in the zealots that post here , at that initial state they are 110% fully committed, fully invested, they post here in droves outlining all and everything under the sun . They post here and other forum on the interverse because they are over joyed they found the holy grail , they want to tell the casinoverse that they are THE MAN.


    You see it here on this forum all the time, yes you frank, you read the threads. They post here to convince people, they discontinue posting after awhile due to the fact they find their perceived holy grail is a figment of synchronistic variance then they don’t post any more regarding the machinations of their holy of holy grail.

    Then they start posting, engaging with other method posters looking for other methods to supplement their own defunct holy grail.

    In the between time they are still 110% true believers until they are not. Then they stop posting.

    Then a new batch of grailists blow in.

    Then on the subject of con artist, system sellers etc that figure is also 100% . They believe SOMEONE out there in interverse spacetopia will by a copy from them.

    Im not sure of the value of the thread topic as it seems rather similar to asking how long is a piece of string. From the theological aspect and I know there are a few of them here , sure that may keep them preforming mental gymnastics looking at numbers but from a practical perspective your not going to use it even if you could work out how to put it to your advantage ( general you ) .

    So pencil in my opinion as
    100% believe I do succeed at baccarat

    and
    100% all system sellers are con artist

    cheers
     
  4. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    That's a generous and long reply. Thank you.

    I have known true believers and I have known out and out con-men.

    I wanted to get a larger sample since personal experience is rarely typical or enough to base an accurate opinion.

    It's worth noting that one of my old partners (now deceased) Roberta Stone was a retired math teacher from Florida that found out about Progressive VP from a forum. She stopped posting after she came to Vegas and joined our team because we had an NDA.

    I was also prohibited from sharing any "real" info until after all my partners retired. Progressive VP is not something you can do without partners. Just the scouting alone is too much for one person.

    So now I can talk freely, but that's now not then. When active it never would have occurred to me to "sell a strategy". Not so Smart Art once offered me $1000 for my Frontier 3-Meter Strategy which was colorized, laminated, and had all the break-points on it for the different meters. I declined the money.

    My point was the pros I knew not only didn't sell their wining strategies they refused to sell them.
     
  5. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I would also like to add that it's perfectly normal to get excited about new things. Even when those things go well one becomes bored with it after a time. By about year 11 of my VP career I took four months off and almost never went back. At that time I had only experienced 3 losing months in 11 years and 99% of my lifetime earn had come from VP.

    I'm not disagreeing with you by the way. Just offering alternative explanations.
     
  6. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Some people have actually used card counting in the casino...
    First it is not that hard if you don't count 1,2,-1, etc. You watch as the second card comes to every hand and use a plus minus but canceling cards not adding or subtracting when plus and minus cards hit together. If your count is 2 and the next 2 cards are a ten and low you don't change from 2.....
    Second by following typical bet goes up as the count goes up is why the majority fail.
    A moderate count puts the dealer in more of a bust postition. A high count puts you more at fifty fifty with the dealer.
    Third. by paying attention at what is happening at the table. In a negative or even count the dealer can still get in a bust sequence of cards....
    Yes the order they come out is important no matter what the count is.
    As for the hand being fifty fifty when the count is high. Out of a hundred hands being up 25 units won't pay the seat rent.
    You can go by the math all day and lose your ass in any given situation. Someone playing every day knows this.

    Like I said IF I hit one out of three it was a good day for me.....
    My two friends that got nailed is a true story not a made up example. Whether JAE believes it or not will not make me lose any sleep.

    You could learn a lot by watching some of the old poker shows. I still remember a guy that folded an ace queen in a position where he should have by the math raised or went all in. The one announcer stated why in the world would he do this.... The other announcer said he never wins with that hand. He was one of the guys that kept stats on every hand he played. Sure enough there was no ace or queen dealt up.
     
  7. porky

    porky Active Member

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    I almost forgot this.....I have forgot the name of the guy and I can't remember which one. He is one of the guys that was on a lot of the travel channels casino shows.
    He was put in charge of a casino.. I want say in California...Again not sure. But the thing that stuck with me was it was a failing casino. He told the people he was working for he was going to up the blackjack tables and put out the word card counters are welcome.... He said he told the higher ups that they will lose far more than any of them will make.
    After he put the word out he said the casino was full and became proffitable.
    True story don't know. TV.....
     

  8. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    You're thinking of the Barona Casino in California. Yes he's good friends with Arnold Synder and I've met him.
     
  9. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    There's a bit more to their stratagem. They keep the real pros to low limits and fade them as a loss leader. Then a bunch of people that do not have the right stuff lose their money trying to follow in shoes they can never fill.

    Some of the counters they have are 165 IQ or higher with photographic memories.

    I believe I'm invited to the next BJ ball there when the pandemic ends.

    This casino seems to understand that a few real winners doesn't hurt them as it attracts more business.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2022
  10. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I have counted for the side bets. Also everything you said about BJ is accurate. There is more to it and counting isn't the end. But yes, very accurate.
     
  11. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Frank though we don't agree on everything you impressed me knowing that.....The few times i've talked about it i've been told i'm nuts and a casino would never take that risk. I also wondered if it was true....

    The twenty years to make the rounds about the machines got me thinking. It took about twenty years for the casinos to finally take several steps against dice setters. Back in the day a casino advertised roll counts and you could be a big winner...lol

    I remember being at tables with huge rolls and they would just laugh when the devil came out. Thousands of dollars on the table by the let it ride crews. And then you had the setters that couldn't get on a roll if their life depended on it.

    Things always change and not all casinos are on the same page. My favorite was when I was in a casino with a five dollar baccarat table. Never seen one that low before. When I put out a green....no crap the dealer turned his head and yelled green in play.... The pit boss walked over and observed the play....no kidding... I thought I was on candid camera or something.....If I bet 25 or 30 in a stack of red nothing....put out a green and green in play.....lol
     
  12. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    When I used to play at Four Winds they did the same thing in baccarat. Anything bigger than a red and the dealer yell out to the pit. If it was a black the pit dude would give himself a hernia hustling down there.
     
  13. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Makes me think of the vegas vacation movie. You know the back hills casino with "guess which hand."
    And of course the line from the big casino "changing five hundred."

    If you go to enough casinos and spend enough time you see all kinds of things.

    Vegas vacation wasn't far off right down to him studying the card counting book. Hilarious......
     
  14. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Or when Clark hands his money directly to the dealer. It's a fun movie that I've seen 4 or 5 times but they get just about everything wrong. Like when the kid starts winning big money items with a fake ID. He would have immediately had to fill out tax forms and they would want more than some crappy ID he got off the street.
    The way the same BJ dealer talks to Clark. You would never see that in any casino on the planet, that kind of personal 'I hope you lose' attitude from the dealer.
     

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I don't think they are worried about a counter here. The floor's job is to prevent cheating. And on a $5 table the floor will generally keep track of the "big" chips in the rack. Just part of their job. The floor was probably just counting the tray. OTH if the dealer sees you spreading he's going to notify the floor by calling out "green" or "chips play" or whatever.
    Yes, going broke from inadequate bankroll but also getting barred and/or having the preferential shuffle used on you. Don't think you are going to sit there and make 15:1 spreads all night without drawing the heat. Successful counters know it's a hit and run game.

    With no mid-shoe entry, poor card depth and crowded tables the game is almost impossible to beat these days.
     
  16. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    Who said you have to play more than one game if you bet against the streak?

    You asked the right person about riding in boxcars. Although, I haven't rode the rails since 1996, the year my gambling career took off and I started staying in fancy hotels.

    The first thing to determine is....does the boxcar have a wooden floor or a steel floor. If steel floor it's totally out of the question to ride that boxcar. Once the trains gets rolling you can scream at the top of your lungs and not hear yourself. If wooden floor get ready for a bumpy ride. Empty boxcars are not the smoothest ride out there. They were the last thing I looked for. Screw the gondolas too. To much dust blowing around in them. I much preferred the 48's and grainers or riding in the last locomotive.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2022
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  17. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, Spike, but I don't really follow your advice on baccarat. I follow this guy's advice:

     
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  18. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Math peddler Elliot Jacobson? I don't even have to watch the video to know he'll tell you that according to the math nobody can beat baccarat. He says the same thing about roulette. Means nothing ignore him.
     
  19. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It is the right and privilege to know .

    An open mind is an asset .
     
  20. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Elliot Jacobson does not have an open mind, he has a math mind which is a closed mind.
     
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